On a couple of the issues, at a minimum, you’re begging the question with talk of not rupturing a consensus, when that consensus may or may not exist. I don’t believe it does, and I believe there’s some fancy footwork going on when the “consensus in favor of abortion rights” is invoked as a basis for the Democratic Party’s absolutist insistence that the decision as to the degree of abortion regulation can never be returned to where it resided for 200 years, i.e., with the country’s electorate (who presumably make up the “consensus”). Or is it one of those “consensuses” that only counts the nice people with the right ideas, and not “fringe-types” or those we don’t want in the soon-to-be consensus?
Another question: I’m curious about your math (not challenging it, just want to see where you’re going with this).
GOP:
X1 million “core party” (internationalist amoral businessmen who want to accrue wealth)
X2 million “consensus Americans”
X3 million fringe factions who don’t fit into X1 or X2
Dems:
Y1 million core party (as above)
Y2 million “consensus Americans”
Y3 million fringe factions who don’t fit into Y1 or Y2
Your estimates for X1, X2, X3, Y1, Y2, Y3, and how they add up roughly to produce the popular vote we saw?
If there’s a small core cabal controlling the GOP, and (implicitly) relatively few “consensus Americans” in the GOP;
and if the Dems have the large bulk of reasonable “consensus Americans” –
Then where are the GOP picking up a 4 million popular vote margin? I’m not endorsing the popular vote as the be all end all – but it may be the closest thing we have to a national referendum. How did these disparate, unrepresentative, and true-consensus-shunning Republicans exceed the huge numbers of Y2s, plus no doubt a few Y3s as you’ll concede?
Or is it your dystopian vision that MOST of America is a bunch of reactionary X2 factions or interest groups? A greater number of them than the allegedly-consensus-representing Y2s? Again, makes me wonder about exactly what kind of Dem. consensus can lead to these numbers. Clearly not a numerical majority, but is it even a plurality that you say share the “consensus?” If this plurality is much smaller (in your math/view) than the combined numbers of X2 reactionaries, sounds like you’re almost working up to an argument to leave the country. With numbers like that, you might not hate America or the Dems or even the GOP, but you’d just about have to despise the largest single group of people who can rally behind a common set of causes? Not very inspirational, but that’s where your analysis tends to lead, IMHO. But I’d like to see your estimates., if I’m missing something in your analysis.