Retaliatory tariffs

Politics & Elections
201

Yes and no.

Colombia was already happy to accept refugees, but preferred them to be treated better. Nothing actually changed.

Mexico and Canada have agreed to increase funding and bring more soldiers and police to the border.

Panama has moved away from China.

But these threats and moderate “wins” come at a high cost. Trump abrogated a treaty he personally signed for these modest concessions. It will take America years to win back international trust, and this trust is why other countries use the greenback as a reserve currency. It means Trump’s word on international deals is questionable. Other countries have taken note. How was the game worth the candle? There is a reason the WSJ called this “the dumbest trade war in American history”, and they are ultra-conservative. Canadians buy $500 billion worth of American goods each year, and many are furious.

202

It seems like Columbia backed down.

But I agree with you…Trump is a bull in a china shop, and there’s a cost for that.

203

Colombia already accepted return of its refugees. Trump threatened high tariffs, without consulting anybody else, after they complained due to the refugees allegedly being handcuffed and denied basic services. After all of this, Colombia continues to accept the return of its refugees. Where was the great win?

204

Except they haven’t. Mexico agreed to send troops they have already sent. Actually, they already agreed to send even more a few years ago. In effect, they agreed to do things that were already in place.

Ditto Canada. Well, ok, Canada agreed to name a fentanyl czar to oversee things. But they didn’t actually agree to send any personnel they did not already have dedicated to border operations.

Did they? Or did they just make soothing noises and not change any actual policy?

So far, the things they have done are pretty limited. They said they wouldn’t renew their Belt and Road stuff with China. But they already got infrastructure upgrades out of it, so they basically already got what they wanted. They also ran a few audits on some Chinese companies, but that’s not really anything and also an easily corruptible process.

Oh, and they agreed to ‘investigate’ limiting migrant movement across the Darien Gap but did not commit to action.

Basically, they’ve committed themselves to not much so far.

Granted, that may change in coming weeks, but it’s not inspiring much confidence.

They had been accepting the flights through the Biden administration. They objected to the use of shackles by the new administration. Once they got a pledge people wouldn’t be chained, they accepted the previous arrangement again.

Colombia isn’t the side that backed down, there. But it is still being played in the US media as a ‘win’, which may be all that effectively matters.

What countries are learning (or re-learning) is that the current administration will back down without any real gains if they get a face-saving way of claiming a ‘win’ for the media back home.

205

He is also a dunce. He is the one that signed the current trade agreement he recently claimed was so unfair to the US. Here are Trump’s own words from 2020 when he signed it:

What a maroon.

https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-united-states-mexico-canada-agreement-delivers-historic-win-american-workers/

206

This is one of the great dangers of Trump. He and his supporters live in a fact-free imaginary world. The only reality is what Trump says it is. It may be completely different tomorrow. George Orwell wrote about this in the dystopic novel 1984, and here we are watching it unfold in real life.

207

Ah c’mon. Everyone knows Eurasia has always been at war with Oceania.

208

I’m pleased to announce an increase in the egg ration from 8 eggs/week to 6 eggs/week!

209

While it’s true that just 43 lbs of fentanyl was seized on the northern (your southern, smile) border in 2024, the key number to focus on is that just 2 lbs was seized in 2023. That’s a 2000% increase, which may be why it’s a concern.

As for illegal crossings, there were 19,222 in 2024, far less than at the Mexican/US border…but that number was 6,925 in 2023. Again, the sharp increase makes it worthy of concern. I also believe the number of known or suspected terrorists captured at the northern border exceeded that of the US Mexico border and has been increasing sharply.

We love Canada, but we have some concerns. We’re glad that we’re working them out.

210

I welcome your presenting what is, if you are serious, a minority view here.

Trump promised last year to slap Canada with a 25 percent tariff on day one (a promise I am glad he broke). When he promised, he did not have 2024 figures.

Who is we? We never-Trumpers? Yes. There always are concerns for diplomats to discuss with friends.

But this does not sound like love to me:

Trump’s Words

211

That looks like the Biden administration and the Canadian government increased the frequency and severity of controls and are now being punished by the usual RW propagandists for doing a good job. Had they done nothing they would be excoriated for inaction. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. At least as long as the hysterical side holds the megaphone, talk radio, fox news and social media (and just you wait until Musk gets to control TikTok for reasons of national security! You will love it!).

212

But that’s what he’s always done, pretty much his whole life. Lying is just standard. He’d plan to build something “world class”, brag about hiring the “best people”, but as soon as the thing was built, and it was time to pay those people, he’d claim they were complete crap, and the stuff they built was garbage, and so he wasn’t going to pay them.

And the same with his taxes. When he used buildings as collateral for loans, they were the most expensive buildings anyone had ever seen, but their value dropped like a stone as soon as he had to put a number down for their tax valuations.

Everything is perfect until he needs it to be crap,and then it’s the worst crap anyone has ever seen. He has always been like this, and he always will be.

213

And those numbers on their own tell don’t tell you if there are other confounding variables that explain the change in the numbers.
Like, for instance, the planet recovering from a global fucking pandemic.

214

What the hell kind of subsidy is he talking about? I sure as hell am not being paid by the US Government and walking around with US dollars in my pocket. (I’m in Canada, in case anybody didn’t know.) Nor is anybody I know. Local merchants won’t accept US dollars, or if they do, it’s at a ripoff exchange rate.

What is this so-called US dollar subsidy? Define and specify, please.

[Note to @PhillyGuy: not you, but to @culling_the_herd, to whom you were responding.]

215

I assume T is referring to one or other calculation of the trade deficit, i.e., more money is going from the US to Canada than vice versa, and that he doesn’t understand that this means that, for whatever reason, USA customers like Canadian products that much more than vice versa.

To my simple mind, that would suggest that, to reverse or equalise that trend, market forces would require US producers to come up with products that are more attractive to Canadian customers. Is that working yet?

Insofar as the EEA and UK may be next, I’d add the detail that “attractive to our customers” means abiding by our quality and safety standards, as our producers must. If that means no chlorinated chicken or beef overstuffed with antibiotics - well, suck it up, buttercup.

Of course, you could try autarky, but AIUI that usually fails in mature (?) developed economies within quite a short period.

216

Between 80-90% of all illegal guns in Canada come across your northern border. Is the US going to step up and stop this?

217

Isn’t that considered a gift from us to you? Helping combat the human rights violations rampant north of the border by arming the citizenry?

I’ve got to stop listening to my Canadian cousins and aunts.

218

« Working out problems » with a neighbour requires talking and working together to common goals.

The US is telling us to do what it wants or else it will hit us over the head with a club.

The US is a bully and a thug.

We will remember.

219

Border relationships are rarely as constructive as the Canada/US one c. 1900?-2024. Canada needs to think more seriously about its national security. That means recognizing that we one bullying and not especially popular President doesn’t imply that the remaining Presidents were or will be thuggish.

But militaries need to prepare for bad scenarios. I outlined the sort of steps Canada’s national security community should consider above.

Canada’s National Security and Intelligence Review Agency had a budget of about 23 million Canadian dollars (they spent 18 million dollars). They are, “Canada’s independent expert review body for national security and intelligence activities”: they aren’t the policy makers themselves. That sort of spending may have been adequate in 2024, but it is an order of magnitude off in 2025. Canada needs to reorient their policies: this is a case where short term budget deficits would make sense.

As an US citizen, I’m not happy about this. The US allegedly had a special relationship with Britain, as well as a number of other special relationships across the globe. Canada was in a different category: they had our back. The US can’t reasonably count on that any more and frankly they can’t plan for it either. It’s a loss that isn’t enormous for a great power, but damn it really isn’t good.

220

“Colombia” and the concessions were - well, nothing, really.