Well I don’t think it’ll drop enough to trigger. It’s down badly, but 2.5 percent isn’t close to the seven percent limit. We are seeing some sucker’s rally buying.
Trump is starting to backtrack. Again. The market at least partially believes the tariff insanity won’t last.
Trump and his minions, of course, are hooting about this working every time some other country says “We are willing to talk to you about returning to a state of sanity.” They claim this is a win. Except it’s just an offer to stop punching. And it contradicts Trump’s claims that tariffs were a good idea and are here to stay. So most Trumpists think this is terrific.
What is for sure is that things are fucked up to SOME extent because no country agreeing to anything with the USA trusts Americans anymore, and for good reason; treaties with the USA are worthless. Any agreement to trade fairly has an expected lifespan of a month or two, tops.
Nothing you quoted leads to what the Trump admin did last week, it’s just vague “Trump likes tariffs” talk. the only sort of specific idea is “Reciprocal” tariffs, and the four-year Chinese plan, but that isn’t what they did. I honestly think they came up with the so-called plan and those numbers the day before. Maybe Monday.
Nor is there a clear plan now. Its obvious they are shocked at the pushback, panic and chaos. There is at this point no US government policy at all regarding trade; Trump and some people say tariffs are remaining up, then they hint they’re not, then they say 50 countries are bending the knee though there is zero evidence that’s true. They don’t want free trade because of trade imbalances but then brag they have a free trade deal with Argentina.
I’d say you’re quibbling here. Sure, Trump is the lazy student who leaves the work until the night before the deadline, then submits a pile of stuff cut and pasted from the internet. But there was never a question that he’d do something stupid with tariffs. The only outstanding question was “How stupid will it be?”
The only surprise here is that no one expected it to be quite this stupid.
But it wasn’t on the spot. It was after a day of online memes about tariffs on penguins. Plenty of time for some flunky to come up with an excuse - and not even a very good one. It doesn’t explain the tariffs on the island where the only human presence is US military.
No one expects penguins, that part came out of left field. However, if you asked me “How stupid are these tariffs going to be?” I would have replied that they will go up to 11.
Someone with knowledge of spelling and grammar (and arcane knowledge of the secret location of CAPS LOCK) posted this tribute to China under Krastinov’s name:
0% chance of China budging. Both because China takes more considered moves; they don’t just change things on a whim based on a tweet. But also because Trump calling them out this way means they would lose face if they so much as tweak the reciprocal tariff to 33.9%.
If, on April the 9th the tariffs that Trump has announced are all implemented, plus 104% tariff on Chinese goods, it will be apocalyptic. A lot of businesses will shutter overnight.
Where will China find new customers for their goods? We have such good friends I cannot think of anyone who would want to trade with China when they could be subjected to our tariffs.
In case it was missed but the de minimus rule - as I understand it - is still in place until May 2. I’d recommend that people do any shopping from Chinese sources quickly.
The USA doesn’t really have friends anymore. No one trusts them.
The problem China would have finding customers for those goods is that most other countries are already buying stuff from China and don’t need to buy that much more.
Question. All of these tariffs, as well as the craziest deportations, are happening under emergency/wartime powers granted to the president due to his having declared a state of national emergency. Correct?
And theoretically, if Congress chose to do so, a majority vote in both chambers would essentially tell Trump to end the emergency (and associated decrees), but he would have the option of refusing?
And then, even more theoretically, a two thirds vote in both House and Senate would override this and end the state of emergency, right?
Where’s the deep state? Where are the mega donors? Where is the dreaded billionaire class? How bad does the economy have to tank before these groups pressure Congress to grow some balls and do something?
However, if Trump really tanks in the polls, to the point where it’s clear the GOP is about to lose the Senate, Congress will act. Likely? No. Possible? Yes.
Indira Gandhi’s Trumpy 1975-77 emergency lasted 21 months. I look at that as a best-case scenario for an elected autocracy.
"The conversation then shifted to Trump’s discussions with tech industry leaders about the tariffs. When asked whether he had spoken to anyone over the weekend about the issue, Trump replied, “Yeah, I talked to… the biggest in the world. I talked to the biggest of them, all, many of them, but I’ve talked to… uh, I would say four or five that are considered the biggest.” He went on to state that these leaders were supportive of his policies, saying, “And you know what they said? We don’t blame you.”
However, when pressed for the names of these “biggest” tech leaders, Trump remained vague. “I don’t want to say… I’ll put it out. You know, I don’t know if that was a confidential call or not, but we had five or six. I’ve spoken to many countries,” he explained, offering no specifics. The lack of details raised questions about the legitimacy of his claims."
