I’m pretty confident that if trump enacts his new tariffs, the economy is going to take a beating. Maybe not crash, but it will certainly slow down, and send inflation higher. If this happens, might people realize they made a mistake voting for him?
OTOH, maybe he really is a stable genius, and the economy booms under his guidance. That’s good, right? Right?
Results matter.
But so too is how you get those results.
Trump crashing the economy would be short-term loss but long-term benefit.
Trump boosting the economy would be short-term benefit but long-term loss.
It will be soon for the inflation and recession cycle to come back in- there will be a recession and also inflation.
Do we assume that Trump is actually going to carry out the rest of his authoritarian agenda? If so, and no reason to think he won’t, nearly anything that undermines him is good.
“I put the tariffs in place so we’d all make money! Even though the law passed, the DEMICRATS ruined it!”
Followed by no evidence, as usual.
Inflation is down to nearly 2%. If the Trump administration puts in his promised tariffs and inflation spikes he could have problems in the midterms leading to the loss of the house or senate, which would slow down the implementation of Project 2025.
His handlers, such as they are, will advise him not to implement the tariffs right away or to do it so gradually so that the expected impact on inflation is minor. That way he can claim he increased tariffs but they won’t be nearly as high as what he promised during the campaign.
Trump constantly lied and made false promises he never intended to keep, and that he can simply ignore. Remember the wall that Mexico was going to pay for? There’s no wall and Mexico hasn’t paid a dime.
Yeah. Why does anyone think he really cares about tariffs, as opposed to something he said to get elected. If the economy continues to improve, he likely will keep his hands off and just take credit. Who.- other than Trump - is supporting huge tariffs? I could see him, at most, imposing some limited tariff andd claiming he fulfilled his promise.
Of course, he could just do something unnecessary, irrational and stupid… 
Because tariffs punish other people and other nations. Trump doesn’t believe in trade, he believes in tribute, in his view if you don’t get something for nothing you’re a “loser”.
Tariffs certainly punish other people - that is, people who aren’t Trump - but those people are going to be the American population.
Tariffs on imports are not paid by other countries. They’re paid by Americans who want or need to buy imported goods. That includes such essentials as food and medicine. Other countries? They’ll laugh and sell their goods to each other if they can’t penetrate the American markets. Meanwhile, Americans will discover how little is actually made in this country any more.
Could we increase US manufacturing? Sure. It just takes years to do so and a crapload of capital that we have to somehow convince the oligarchs to invest in actual material production rather than swapping virtual tokens around.
I’m getting ready for years of suckitude.
The man is so stupid. I’m not an economist or even a business person, and I understand that this would be bad for us.
Hopefully, if we can find an adult in the room, they will convince him not to do it.
Because the last time around, he imposed a whole lot of tariffs. He went out of his way to declare Canada a threat to US national security so he could do an end-run around Congress to impose tariffs on us. He maintained the tariffs on China even as the resulting trade war devastated large parts of the US agricultural sector.
These are not the actions of a man who “doesn’t really care” about tariffs. Of all his ‘promises’, this is the one of two I really think he will do, the other being “Drill baby drill”.
They are indeed paid directly by the exporting nations- except that of course they will raise their prices so Americans will pay for the tariffs indirectly.
This is not true, at least not in many cases.
They are paid by the purchasers of the products.
When I buy electronic supplies from distribution, the tariff is added as a separate line item.
When I buy PCBs from China, the tariffs are calculated after everything has been paid for, and the delivery service (DHL or FedEx) collects the additional tax directly from me.
Sure, when you are ordering a large single item or ordering direct. But when China ships a whole containers full of polyester shirts or something, the tariff is paid by the shipper, each shirt doesnt have a little 10 cent bill attached for the tariff. Most items are not sold directly to the consumers, but to a American jobber, who sells to a wholesalers, who sells to a retailer, who sells to a customer…
And then the shipper marks it up because their cost has gone up, and then the wholesaler marks it up because their cost has gone up, and then the retailer marks it up because their cost has gone up. Who pays the extra cost (plus extra markups)?
No, they will not. That is not how tariffs work. That’s like saying your local store pays the sales tax. No, YOU pay the sales tax, note it’s a separate line item on your receipt.
Yes — but see below.
There always is some bad economic news.
There will probably be news stories about crops in the field rotting from harvest labor shortages, followed by produce price spikes and empty supermarket bins.
If Trump listens to more mainstream advisors, he will go slow on own-goal promises about trade and immigration. But today’s appointment of Stephen Miller suggests that Trump is foolish enough to follow through on campaign promises.
As for voters realizing they made a mistake, a few will. But more will recall having voted for Harris when they did not.
A tarriff is exactly a sales tax. It’s typical Republican regressive tax policy.
So said Harris, mostly because that’s an easy criticism.
Tariffs are worse.
All the sales tax revenue goes to the government to provide public services.
Tariffs give domestic producers room to raise their prices. So, unlike with sales taxes, much of the higher retail prices goes to big business.
If you believe international trade is generally good, as I do, tariffs have harm above and beyond sales tax disadvantages.