Mrs. Odesio and I are preparing for the economy to tank. I believe my job is safe but hers in in danger, but we’re comfortable enough to live on my income alone if it it’ll mean we won’t be able to do all the fun stuff we like to do. Unlike Trump, I won’t root for anything that’s bad for the United States just because it makes my enemies look bad. But I expect things to get bad.
Ben Shapiro - Ben Shapiro! - criticized Trump on tariffs, using sound arguments that every sane economist has been using. (Of course, being Ben Shapiro and all the muck that goes with the name, he tried to make it sound like Biden had the same policy because he put tariffs on Chinese EVs - one tariff, not a universal.)
That was back in July. Who knows, maybe he’ll find some excuse to support them now.
Nevertheless, Trump is hellbent to destroy the economy in every way his warped tiny mind can conceive of. The odds that he spikes the economy are lower than the odds he’ll listen either to me or Ben Shapiro.
Basically, if he “spikes” the economy it’s probably good because it would mean he’s been replaced by a body snatcher who actually knows and cares how to govern.
Trump said a lot of things to get elected. Some of it was just to be a better negotiating position. If most Senate and House members believe tariffs will crash the economy, they will dial them back. Inflation is important to many people who voted for Trump. It is true Trump talked tariffs in 2016, and will still do so. But the US is in a bigger debt position than it was then, and the economic arguments against are stronger.
I think Biden did a good job with the economy. It remains to be seen what the mercurial Trump wants to do, and what he is able to put into practice. I am sure there will be some tariffs and some acrimony. But my guess is they will amount to as much smoke as fire, and that the economy will chug along. I see tough talk on China, few Chinese EV imports, but no big trade war. I see tough talk on Mexico and Canada but only moderate changes to USMCA. Of course I am often wrong.
I see a middle ground. Trump receives enough advice and opposition not to crash the economy. There is enough volatility, certainty and flip flopping to avoid great growth. Some obvious sectors will do well. The thing about deregulation is some companies do want to be perceived as global citizens, and state restrictions (such as California) and international regulation (such as the EU) will still have some weight with some industries. This obviously applies more to some industries than others, though. But harming (American) consumers has legal consequences and not just moral and economic ones, and this will still restrain practical companies.
Yes, as i said- the buyer/consumer pays it INDIRECTLY.
Yes it is. Let us say China ships us a boatload of cheap plastic toys, $10 each. The tariff on the whole container worth might be say $1000, for 10000 toys. When I buy a toy, there isnt a little tag on it saying I owe 10cents first. That is how it occurs if you as an individual but say a whole computer from China, shipped direct to you- before you can get it, you have to pay the tariff.
No, what will happen is as -
The jobber marks up the whole lot say $1005. The wholesaler divides it up into ten lots, each lot marked up $110. The retailer then charges $5.25 for the toy. So, indirectly- the consumer/buyer pays the tariff (plus a little)- but before he can, the Jobber or whoever gets the lot off the ship has to pay the tariff.
So, yes, the buyer/consumer will pay for the tariff- but indirectly.
Yep, that is why the article is wrong- a Good tariff is one you put on because a nation like China wants to sell stuff under cost in order to drive American competitors out of business. Which is exactly what China was doing with their electric cars. Biden was right- trump is wrong. But as a way of raising income, as trump wants to do, all they are is an indirect tax on the American middle consumer class.
Direct or indirect the American citizens are going to be the ones paying this new tax. Think prices are high now? You ain’t seen nothing yet.
It’s like Trump saying Mexico was going to pay for his wall - what bullshit. Mexico of course never paid a centavo, it all came out of the pocket of the American public.
Agree. Trumps just wants to hurt people. He’s the same bully he was in 6th grade.
Wait until they try to arrest Taylor Swift for asking people to vote.
JFTR … here’s the actual mechanism for collecting tariffs:
And the net impact of tariffs on consumers:
Corporate executives could also wake up one day and decide that lower profit margins are fine, explaining to their shareholders that “this is just the way the world works now,” after which, they would burnish their resumes, since their Boards of Directors will certainly show them unceremoniously to the door.
There’s also the calculus of price elasticity. Some widgets, companies, and industries can increase prices more than others with lesser adverse impact on sales (and profits) than others.
No doubt with their golden parachute.
As a railroader, I think I have a unique perspective on this, as I see the old and abandoned factories we used to serve every day.
My take is that there is no going back to that time, which for the Magas would have to be around 1950 to maybe 1965. So, post WW2 after the industrial base of most other countries had been destroyed. The US was of course not touched during WW2 due to technological limitations of the time.
The days when you could just get a good factory job have never really existed in my life. I’m gen-x born in 1971. The US is still manufacturing goods, but it’s not things like shirts and shoes, or collars. I live near the Collar City. It was once the US capitol of shirt collars, but things changed.
The backward-looking vision of the next president and the defunding of the Department of Education by Maga will only hurt the US for the future as we shun technology and higher learning to try to go back to something, or some time, that never really existed.
We will not be prepared for the challenges of the future, and I’m just glad I’m an old man now.
Well it does hurt other countries, indirectly. If China struggles to sell to the US they will not be laughing. However, what they will do is put in counter-tariffs, as will other countries.
The result is the trade deficit will likely remain proportionally the same, but everyone’s economy shrinks a little from where it could be.
Also they might discover how many American made things need imported parts, because that’s modern manufacturing for you. It’s one thing to build your own shed, it’s another to forge your own nails.
Also the US is already a manufacturing powerhouse, especially considering that wealthy countries typically shift more towards services. It should also be noted, that manufacturing is increasingly automated, and that manufacturing in the US is made up in large part by prison labor.
So whether the US manufactoring sector should be grown is not quite as obviously a positive strategy as many people assume.
Yes, if Trump goes through with his massive tariffs on everything from everybody strategy it will basically halt (or at least put a huge damper on) all imports and exports. Which will effectively be like a world-wide sanction on the US. Something that is usually done as a punishment for poor behavior on the world stage, but would in this case be self inflicted.
My guess is that the tariff strategy as with everything else that involves Trump is all about the grift. By threatening countries with massive tariffs he can wheedle concessions out of them which will undoubtedly behind the scenes include some form of bribe gratuity to him personally.
I foresee an explosion in the market for Trump watches. They will be bought for ever-increasing retail values by customers from all over the world, and then never worn or resold.
And I’ve just realized what product will also be used for gratuities and will mark the nadir of this dystopia: a Trump-branded, gold cybertruck 
Right, it was a golden decade for American manufacturing and consumerism. It will never happen again, that was a unique period.
The US is far from the only market China sells to. If their business with us falls off they’ll just sell to the rest of the world. The US is not as essential as it like to believe.
Or other countries will decide they’re rather trade with others than be bullied by Trump.
Which will also screw the American public, but it’s not like Trump cares about us.
Yes I probably should have conditioned my statement by replaceing
he can wheedle concessions
with
he believes he can wheedle concessions
Trump is not the crack negotiator he thinks he is.
Possibly you think that conceding that tariffs will hurt China means conceding that they are a good idea? They aren’t – they are a fuckdumb idea from a person with no understanding of economics.
Everyone is going to hurt from this. And all else being equal, it will cause inflation in the US. But yes, it’s not a trivial thing for China to suffer a plunge in sales from its biggest export market. It’s not as though China doesn’t already sell to the rest of the world, so it is not so easy to make up the shortfall elsewhere.
Oh, not at all - it will hurt China. It will hurt the US more.
If doing business with the US is too aggravating the rest of the world will stop selling to the US. Contrary to the 'Murica Numba Won! crowd, we actually do need the rest of the world, especially if we wish to continue enjoying anything like our current standard of living.
Especially once Trump wrecks the economy and people no longer have the money to buy things from China.