Will Trump's tariffs help him in the next presidential election?

Will Trump’s tariffs help him in the next presidential election?

I think so, many former Midwestern states that used to be manufacturing powerhouses would probably benefit from the Tariffs.

From a Presidential electoral perspective, you can pretty much assume the Democrats will win with the North East and the mainland states touching the Pacific Ocean, with the Republicans pretty much carrying the Southern States, and the Mountain states.

The 2016 election was decided by who won Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

It will be interesting to see what happens next as Trump is correct when he says the USA is at a disadvantage in trading thanks to tariffs.

How does a manufacturer benefit from higher prices for materials?
Sure, save a few steel/aluminum making jobs, raise costs on the rest of the industrial base that uses those materials.
Costs that are passed on to the American buying public.

By the way, Trump availed himself of those cheaper metals from China himself.

Don’t you think with the tariffs, Domestic producers will add more jobs, and see their profits and production increase?

Do you think its fair that other nations impose steel and aluminum tariffs on the USA, but until recently we don’t?

Back to the point and title of the thread ( which you did not directly answer ) will these tariffs help or hurt Trump on election day? I say help based on the states that will benefit.


Not really, because it will raise the average market price which will suppress demand. Plus China, Europe, Canada and everyone else affected by the tariff will impose their own tariffs on other goods, which means that the price of those will go up too. Which means that people will have less disposable income, overall spending will go down and there will be a depressive effect on economic growth. Winning!

Define “fair” in a way that applies to economic transactions between nations. Bonus points if you can do so in a way that doesn’t make the US or the President sound like a petulant toddler (and speaking of petulant toddler reactions, I refer you to Jean-Claude Juncker’s reaction to the tariff announcement).

I doubt that by 2020 most people will even remember the tariff, particularly considering the amount of “news” that comes out of this administraton.

Only if it were to somehow work or appear to work. The former is, according to experts, impossible. The latter might be possible, by coincidence: except all the companies would find it in their best interests to not allow those coincidences.

The actual shortterm consequences are all based on choices, as the actual effects come later. It’s how I could say with certainty that no one’s health insurance went up immediately because of the ACA. They went up because conservative business owners assumed there would be a problem, or for other reasons that they chose to blame on the ACA because the business owners didn’t like it.

But, according to experts on both sides of the political isle, there really aren’t any businesses that stand to benefit. And a lot of red state businesses would fail due to a trade war. Hence meaning the Republican Congress has a huge impetus to stop any such changes.

As a message, it might help. Old steel towns could easily think it’s awesome. As a practical matter, I can’t see any help for industry in those states. With Canada and Mexico seemingly exempt, that’s 25% or so of the steel imports and in aluminum Canada alone is something crazy like 80% all by itself. I can’t see this making for much of an expansion of American metal production. At least not within a 2 1/2 year time frame of the next Presidential election.

And they can stop it. But one problem for congress that I see, is that trump will veto ANYTHING that comes across his desk out of spite if they block him. That’s just the way he is.

And depending on the Bill, there aren’t enough republicans to override the veto.

As others have said, in the short term, this would help US steel PRODUCERS. The manufacturers (and others) will take it in the shorts.

Didn’t know this. Is this new?

Pretty new:

Partially dangled as a NAFTA negotiations carrot/stick thing I am sure.

It seems the timing of the tariffs are to help swing an election in Pennsylvania and it might be the thing that gets republicans a win.

That article is behind a paywall. Here’s a CNN piece on it:

I find it a little hard to believe this tariff is significantly motivated by a special election for a state rep. Maybe the timing but more as a way to test it’s ability to move the numbers rather than to specifically help Saccone.

I really don’t think he’s going to fight the next election.

^^^ You get it. Others here do not.

Many others though will get that Trump does not care about the workers that will be affected outside Pennsylvania; so, since we are talking about a presidential election it would work… if all states were like it.

There is also the item that the Democrat is in favor of the tariffs too, so as the report says, not much of a reason to move the polls in Pennsylvania one way or the other.

I certainly “get it” I just have a hard time believing a special election for a state level congressman is on Trump’s radar. If you read the CNN article, people on the ground aren’t sure it’ll help because for one thing, the Dem in the race is supportive of the tariff.

It’s very definitely on Trump’s radar. He is going to PA, today I think, sending Kellyanne Conway, Pence, and others to campaign. And the party has used gobs of money. They care, sure enough. The Votemaster even speculated that Trump would change his “mind” after the election. Although he dismissed that as a little too obvious.

Would Trump willingly wreck the entire global economy by doing something that will get him cheers at one little Pennsylvania campaign rally?

Do you really need to ask???

Tweet from this morning.

I meant for Trump in 2020, not a state election.

Then why did you say that the poster got it, when the poster was talking about the election in Penn?

Anyway, the tariffs may slightly boost jobs in the steel and aluminum industries. However, as there are more people working in industries that use steel and aluminum than make it, there are more jobs at stake to be lost than to be gained by this move.

Trade wars are easy to win. The best winning move is not to play.