Will Trump's tariffs help him in the next presidential election?

Well sure now that the press suddenly gives a crap about this mostly meaningless race. I mean look at the tweet. He’s tough on the border? Yes, I’m sure Rick will really be an asset for Trump’s plans.

What election are you talking about? (Obviously not the one for U. S. Congressman in Pennsylvania.)

Sorry, guess I got mixed up because he is a current state Rep.

So will he have to run again this November? Because that means this is still pretty meaningless.

I don’t know what happens next November but republicans and Trump are treating this race as anything but unimportant. So far outside groups (not local fundraising) have pushed over $10 million to Saccone and Trump flew there to campaign for him.

I can only assume republicans have good reason for considering this race so important and working very hard to see Saccone win. Unusually hard for a state rep.

Both elements of the premise aren’t correct.
In the global export market for steel products the US contributes 2% by quantity and 0.8% of the value i.e. what the US exports isn’t high value steel products. The 2 major US export markets (85%) are, yes Canada and Mexico under NAFTA.

And the US has repeatedly applied tariffs, quotas or price floors on imported steel e.g. under the administration of Johnson, Nixon, Carter, Reagan, GW Bush and Obama. They haven’t been a prescription for any revitalisation of US steel.

Whenever I see Trump laud a politician for “ being tough on crime”, I think “ Hey, Pumpkinhead, do you know who else is tough on crime?.. 3 guesses, begins with M”.

Mannix?

Munch? McNulty? McClane? Mackey, maybe, if “tough on AND involved in” counts… am I getting warmer?

The last time this little stunt was attempted was when Bush introduced steel tariffs in late 2003 early 2004. Everyone knew it was pretty much a stunt just to win over the Reagan Democrats in the Ohio Valley. It wouldn’t last long because Bush and the people around him were global neo-liberals who believed in free trade and everyone knew the consequences of counter-tariffs and nobody had the stomach for it. They dropped it as soon as the EU and others warned that they would fight back.

Trump is ignorant enough and ballsy enough to believe that the United States could win a trade war, and I’m not so sure immediate economic retaliation would convince him that he’s picking the wrong fight. He might dig in even harder and insist that doubling down on trade tactics might actually force the other side to capitulate. And if that’s actually the case, not only will he not win the next presidential election, but the Republicans might lose the next 2 or 3 elections afterward. It would be a disaster for Trump to continue walking down this road too far. There’s really no upside at all. Considering that most voters see him as inheriting this economy, he would be blamed for tanking it.

Counter-tariffs will hit consumers and domestic industries far sooner than domestic steel can ramp up to create significant job growth. In fact, can that one industry create the numbers to make a meaningful difference in the country at large?

Considering that Ford alone employs more people than the entire steel industry? I’m betting not.

Bush & Company were “neo-liberals”? I get neo-liberals dig a free market but they are not the only ones and not sure I would apply that name to them.

I don’t think that this was done with the Pennsylvania elections in mind. Trump doesn’t have the political expertise to know that there was an important Pennsylvania election much less that a steel tariff would help. So in order for this to be true someone would have had to advise him. However, all reports indicate that this decision was made unilaterally by Trump in a fit of pique, and took everyone by surprise. I think its just a lucky (for Trump) coincidence.

Soccone has billed himself as, “I was Trump before Trump was Trump.” Add to that Trump really, really needs a win (consider other Trump backed candidates who have lost).

I would not be surprised at all if Trump decided he wanted to throw a bone to this guy, figured it is steel country so poof…tariffs on metal.

I’m hard pressed to think why now he thinks this was the thing to do.

The tariffs won’t but the policy will.

Latest suggestions are that the “no exceptions, except for the exceptions” will mean the effect will be 2/3rds of 3/5th of nothing. So the US economy won’t take a hit. The costs will be minimised. He’s sounding as if he’s doing something his constituents are in favour of. He’s waving the flag. The policy is opposed those east coast intellectuals and elites who voted for Hillary and if the policy get’s up their noses that’s as good as actually doing something which benefits his base.

“Our Don, he’s doing good.”
Maybe draining the swamp is more difficult than he thought but at least he’s trying.

On what could you possibly be basing this on?

Of course, just as the perception of tarriffs (without the actual thing) could help him with a base, so too could that perception trigger a real trade war. American news is world news, and other countries have politics, too. The countries that are effected, no matter how slightly, might see their populace demanding a response from their politicians, and that response might not be as slight.

It’s literally the “LIBERAL TEARS” argument again. But when you’ve got a couple hundred thousand pissed off people who lost their jobs for “LIBERAL TEARS”, have fun blaming that stupidity on liberals.

Yes, that’s a good bet.

Even aside from the size of the steel industry as compared with the set of all US industries that use steel–automation is very far advanced in the steel industry. Even doubling or tripling the size of plants in the US wouldn’t result in many jobs.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a27043/steel-mill-austria-automated/

What Austria can do, the USA can do. (Except make strudel.)

Am not basing “this” on anything more substantial than what I summise appeals to the TrumpBase from my, once safe, distance on the far side of the pond.

If I’d put the closing quotation marks at the end of the second sentence it would have been clearer.