Article in today’s paper mentioned one R who proposed challenging the “emergency” tariffs, but observed that neither the House nor Senate leaders would allow such a proposal to reach the floor. So, yeah - theoretically…
It’s clear from, Trump’s statements he knows the stock market is down. And DJT knows that Vance opposed his continuing bombing campaign behind his back.
I strongly suspect Trump is more exposed to critical media than Putin. Yes, low bar.
So… every word Trump utters is the truth?
Don’t think that’s exactly what you meant.
‘Which door would the other Trump tell me to take?’
Yes. Edit window is unfortunately expired.
Unintentional slip, or … “keep 'em guessing?”
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Sunday said President Donald Trump’s tariffs would remain in place “for days and weeks,” and that some islands inhabited by penguins were included on the list so that countries could not use them as a loophole.
[bolding mine]
If the former, then Lutnick just sabotaged any meaningful chance that significant ‘reshoring’ moves will be made by big companies.
Cheaper and easier to simply wait the tariffs out and pay (and pass through) some portion of the increases.
We’re also hearing another absurdly obvious factor: the tariffs will increase the cost of materials needed to build these glorious, palatial factories, teeming with laid off, six-figure, skilled and educated former Civil Servants who will now be competing with 6th graders for unskilled labor.
Another one of the many glaringly obvious issues that arises when you deport any significant number of the hard-working, primarily lower-wage workers keeping this country humming along at a discount: you lose a big chunk of the low-wage construction labor force who may have built the factories.
So, parts and labor.
MAGA!!
[segue]
A JP Morgan analyst put out a nine-page PDF, called Eye On The Market. In it, he summarizes the innumerable threats to the markets that he believes will be significant. There are numerous redactions, but many are pro forma and can easily be deduced from context; others just aren’t that relevant to grok.
The first four pages are the substance, then you get into the Appendices – also interesting.
The part that’s going to kill the U.S. economy is that consumers will see the “temporary” high prices and decide to wait them out, and statements like the quote above are encouraging it. So we’re going to get a demand shock from consumers not buying to go along with the supply shock of manufacturers not producing.
The big question for me is if we’re going to go inflationary or deflationary. Consumers delaying purchases is the leading edge of a deflationary spiral. We have Trump bullying the Federal Reserve to loosen its policy to encourage inflation. Government budget cuts is deflationary. Reduced tax is inflationary if they’re broad, but indications are they’ll be regressive. Inflationary is better economically, and better politically for the party out of power.
Agreed, and this pisses off Trump more than anything when his own supporters say this. It works agaisnt his negotiation scare tactic if other countries and the American people see these tariffs as a temporary bluff. So he just keeps becoming more outragous to keeps the flames going.
He may well be getting his advice from some AI program that Elon is providing to manipulate the economy. Problem is, I’m not sure if AI is smart enough to play poker with the world economy when people start calling the bluffs and making unpredicable moves or waiting him out.
And another another factor: Even if these plants get built, the stuff they produce will be far more expensive than similar stuff produced elsewhere. So, who, other than the captive American market, will be buying any of it? So, you start to lose on economies of scale, too, as the US tries to compete (using factories set up to serve a few hundred million people) with China (using factories set up to serve a few billion people).
So they’re setting a fundamental cap on the amounts the US will ever sell of anything. No way is a multinational corporation going to build anything for export in an expensive US plant.
“Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American Dream,” {Treasury Secretary Scott} Bessent said at a recent meeting of the Economic Club of New York.
'Cheap goods' aren’t part of the American Dream, Trump's treasury secretary says | Fortune
Why not 200%?
“420%! Hur hur.” —Elon
Which is doubtless how China is looking at this. Indeed, part of their calculus is surely that they think there is a chance Trump will be removed from office if this become catastrophic, and that by holding the line (and seeing other major trading partners are also very intransigent, like the EU and Canada) things will get catastrophic very quickly.
Good news, then. They’re not actually going to cut the budget, just rearrange it. And, between the tax cuts for billionaires and the $Trillion Defence budget, they’ll actually have a bigger annual deficit than ever.
What I find so damn frustrating is that they don’t even have to remove Trump from office or anything, just repeal the law that gave the executive branch that power and take back part of what’s supposed to be their job.
I’ve lost ~70k due to this idiots wet brain farts. This is RIGHT when we are buying a new house (well 5 years old house). We close tomorrow.
We have to move. We are too old to handle this elevation (11,200 feet).
I agree, except that they shouldn’t even have to do that, because the Constitution only gives Congress, not the President, the power to set excises (the old name for tariffs)
The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises,
There is nothing that gives Congress the power to delegate to the President what is reserved to our legislature. Centralization of power in a few men led to the collapse of the Roman Republic into warring factions (an early stage of which was seen today with Musk and Navarro). The framers would have known this and seen delegation of Congress’s power to the executive as creating danger of there being an elected tyranny. To stop our wannabe dictator, SCOTUS needs to — but will not — overrule this:
Delegation of power is how things work, though. It underlies the whole regulatory system.
If the courts overturn that, DOGE doesn’t need to do anything, the government will collapse all by itself
There’s a video going round on tiktok of fox hosts talking about the stock market before and after the tariffs.
I can’t find the original video, only vaush responding to it below, so go to 21:05
