We are headed irrevocably down the long dark road of authoritarianism, with attacks on academia being one of many signposts.
Remember Chuck Schumer waving through the republicans’ spending bill, and the criticism he got for that?
I just heard the intriguing point being made that it now looks like a masterstroke. Because it means that attempts to try to blame any of the economic chaos on Democrats are completely falling flat.
Of course MAGA can always just lie, and claim manufacturing jobs went up under trump and down under Biden, and that this is a necessary correction for that, and of course some have. But fair to say none of this is getting traction right now.
FTR: In isolation, the spending bill should have been blocked and/or used as leverage, so the criticism of Schumer was well-founded. But if he really did this for realpolitik reasons…well played.
I disagreed w/ the criticism of Schumer. I think the Republicans would have gladly forced a prolonged shutdown and Democrats would have been at least partly to blame for it. They would have then been hearing from constituents begging them to open the government for fear of missing their mortgage payments and they wouldn’t have a hand any stronger than the weak hand they have now.
I think the filibuster is a dinosaur anyway and should be abolished, but that’s for another thread. I think the Republicans control the federal government and the Democrats should just vote yea or nay and let Republicans own the consequences.
I think Trump has no more idea of how markets work than Joe Lunchpail does: “Markets are up, that’s good; markets are down, that’s bad.” Remember, during his first term, he was crowing about how the markets were doing well, better than they had under Obama. But he never specified how or why; and my guess is because he didn’t know.
Trump’s use of tariffs seems to me to be much the same thing. He doesn’t really know much about their possible effects, but he knows a little, and it’s like the old saying: “When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.”
He makes much about attending the Wharton School of Business, but it seems to me, given his history of failed business ventures, he didn’t learn much.
Everyone needs to check out Bill Maher’s report on the dinner he had with Trump just last week. He came away with the impression that Trump actually is smarter than everyone gives him credit for, just that he is smart in an evil social pathetic way. His whole POTUS is a crazy fool act is just that, an elaborate act meant to appeal to his rubes while he works out his agenda to fuck us all over.
Yeah, I don’t buy it, and Maher is himself not super bright.
I absolutely believe Trump acts more civilized and human in person, but I didn’t need Bill Maher to say that because I’ve heard it said by at least three dozen other people. But Maher took that as meaning he’s much smarter than we think, and that was the wrong impression. “Can act like a human being” doesn’t mean “smart.”
Smart like a socialpath. Manipulative smart. The fact that he easily switches from one to the other is truly disturbing. Serial killers are generally smart enough to get away with murders to get what they want.
Xi suspends exports of rare earth minerals to the world. Shipments will resume when they have regulations in place to sanction US military contractors and US companies in general.
Gifted:
The so-called heavy rare earth metals covered by the export suspension are used in magnets essential for many kinds of electric motors. These motors are crucial components of electric cars, drones, robots, missiles and spacecraft. Gasoline-powered cars also use electric motors with rare earth magnets for critical tasks like steering.
The metals also go into the chemicals for manufacturing jet engines, lasers, car headlights and certain spark plugs. And these rare metals are vital ingredients in capacitors, which are electrical components of the computer chips that power artificial intelligence servers and smartphones.
Canada decided not to play hardball with the US. The Chinese will have no such reluctance.
Oh, wonderful.
Also it’s not true.
I mean, the Dow, S&P 500 etc reached a higher value under Trump than his predecessor (before they crashed in 2020) but almost every president can say that.
The increase gained, and therefore the returns an investor would make, were significantly higher under Obama. And indeed, under Biden.
Even if we give Trump a pass for 2020 that no-one would give a Democratic president.
I know you likely know this, but I’m keen to firefight every time people allude to Trump’s economy being great. That perception is partly how we got to where we are.
The Trump Admin is totally destroying the US scientific establishment. This is only part of that, although it’s a significant part. Third-worldhood here we come.
Smart people like John Bolton have been pretty clear about Trump. Other people have said similar things, but it would be harder to accuse Bolton of having a partisan axe to grind. Really, how hard would it be for Trump to be more pleasant in person than the stream of grievances that serve as his speeches? Trump will be judged by his policies.
Fun fact: “calque” is a loanword, but “loanword” is a calque.
FWIW, there’s a robust conversation about the Maher White House dinner in Maher’s pit thread.
The uncertainty and chaos is the point. Here’s something I wrote and posted in another thread.
It’s not about right vs. wrong, or truth vs. lies.
It’s different, it’s more insidious. It’s about destroying the baseline, the constants we use as a measure. It’s about assailing the unassailable.
That’s why the government is so busy destroying decades worth of valuable data, and gutting the agencies that collect and analyze it. Raw data is unassailable and provides a baseline for the truth.
Did Trump fire federal workers or are they coming back? If I’m a federal worker, will I have a job tomorrow? Who knows? If I’ve been placed on leave, will I be reinstated? I might get an answer on that today, but no one knows if the answer will be the same tomorrow.
Is my business facing increased tariffs or not? No one knows. I might be subject to tariffs today, so should I wait until tomorrow to place that order? They tariffs might be gone tomorrow. The tariffs might be double…..or triple tomorrow. No one knows.
If I’m a legal immigrant, here with a green card or here under a student visa, is my presence still legal today? Who knows? I might get up and go to class as usual, or I might be renditioned to a third world prison? No one knows.
It’s about making sure there are no constants anymore, no normal processes apply anymore.
I think the best example of this was what happened to the financial markets this week. There is an orthodoxy to the markets, one that is akin to the laws of physics. If something happens to factor A, factor B will react in a predictable way……much like how if you drop an object you know gravity will pull it down.
But something happened to factor A, and factor B didn’t react the way it should’ve, the markets dropped a glass and watched it float up to the ceiling.
I previously described this moment as the cartoon moment when half of us have been walked off the cliff and we are hanging in that weightless motionless state because gravity hasn’t caught up with us….yet.
But the other half walked off that cliff willingly, and are flapping their arms because they think maybe they can fly…..in part because their cult leader told them they could, but in part because “Who knows?” Gravity worked yesterday, but does it still work? No one knows.
Even some of the people who were pushed off the cliff might be thinking “Who knows?” Maybe gravity isn’t the rule today?”
There is a book I read on Putin’s Russia called “Nothing is True and Everything is Possible” that describes this dynamic, and I think the title says it all.
The uncertainty is the point.
Yeah, what this guy said 
(er, what @RickJay said, I mean)
I don’t even want to discuss the whole 'he’s not really that insane, or he’s funny at times, or he’s different behind closed doors - those are distractor discussions. Trump says things that make me laugh once in a while. Trump seems to have some faculties left.
Who cares?
He doesn’t understand trade, and neither do his sycophantic, clout-seeking minions who advise him.
My wife reports that her TikTok feed is suddenly awash in videos from Chinese people she’s never seen before commenting directly on the tariffs and American mismanagement of the trade relationship, along with white people delivering congruent analysis whose videos have been swept up in the algorithm.
She showed me one and said it was typical: The guy began by noting Lululemon products are made in China for three to five dollars each, and sold in the US for between sixty and a hundred dollars. He said this is good and profitable for both sides, but that China took its profits and reinvested in its people and infrastructure, in comparison to the US which funneled its profits to the wealthy so they can buy yachts while ordinary people’s wages stagnate and infrastructure decays.
Obviously this is a whole heapin’ helping of questionable assertions, partially truthful claims wrapped in omissions and propaganda, demanding scrutiny and debate and rebuttal. But the point is that there were dozens of these videos in her feed, newly pushed in the last couple of days. If she’d kept scrolling, there may have been hundreds. So while the content of the video may be 
, what’s not debatable is that this is clearly a concerted effort, aimed at undermining American confidence and throwing US politics into further turmoil.
So it turns out that the paranoid claims from national security people about China manipulating the platform in favor of specific political messages have some merit. But while the Chinese may be tipping their hand on this (probably figuring, likely correctly, that the platform’s days are numbered anyway so they might as well go out in a blaze of glory), it also turns out that they’re much better at playing coordinated hardball than the US is.
It’s pretty clear that in the long run the Chinese are going to come out ahead in this conflict, and that based solely on the relative effectiveness of their tactics, they sort of deserve to.
Thanks, but no thanks. I try to stay our of the pit for my own mental health. 
I do appreciate your insights into his destabilizing of our traditional institutions. As someone who is planning for retirement right now there are many disturbing trends that are making me delay my departure, of which I will not go into here.
The Chinese reaction to putting a ban on exports of rare earth materials was easily predictable and can readily be called the result of a stupid move on Trumps part. I’m not saying he is smart in a good sort of way. I’m just saying he is smart enough to know that what he is doing is wrong and that he doesn’t care.
Social apps are “concerted effort” machines, like a water pump makes a concerted effort to push water towards its target.
It is certainly possible that TikTok or the Chinese government is actively pushing some angle. But, it’s equally possible that she clicked one video and now it’s showing related videos. What you, individually, see in your feed mostly just indicates what you chose to pay attention to. Secondarily, it may suggest new content on the basis of what other people seemed to be - of their own will - paying more attention to or what the corporation chose - of their own will - to boost. Without TikTok’s internal data, there’s no way to know which it is.
Everybody’s got a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
–Mike Tyson
[Energetically raises hand] NOT ME!!
–Donald Trump
Her TikTok profile, until three days ago, was exclusively makeup tutorials and travel advice. That’s it. Then she opened it up and found literally half the videos were pushing this specific point of view. This is not an accident.