There have been a few threads regarding whether or not college is worth the expense and comparisons between white and blue collar jobs. Mostly I come down on the side of college is definitely worth it given the earnings statistics.
However, lately I’ve been wondering how accurate this comparison really is. For example, only 1/3 of the adult US population has a 4 year degree. In this situation, college is an automatic filter for attributes that positively correlate with job success but it does not necessarily provide applicable information for a situation presented by a unique individual with unique circumstances or give an accurate description of the probable net increase in earnings given their particular personality traits and background.
An analysis was done a while back which concluded that once certain factors were isolated (e.g. SAT scores) then their was no difference in earning for elite v. non elite university graduates unless the graduate was a minority. I was wondering what the best way would be to apply a similar analysis to college graduate vs. high school graduate.
The challenge then boils down to providing a similar filter to those without a 4 year degree. What results would you get? One measure I’ve been trying to look at is if you take the top 1/3 of people without 4 year degrees do they earn the same as the median for those with a college degree? Even for something as simple as that, I’m actually having trouble finding anything broken down in that particular way.
I haven’t found good data. As you’re aware, degree vs no degree isn’t a good comparison because we’re dealing with very different populations. And even if having a degree is “worth it” for a given population, attempting one may not be, if there is a high likelihood of several incomeless years and debt with no degree at the end.
And if course not having a four-year degree doesn’t preclude another degree or certificate.
I’m not quite understanding the OP’s contention that elite/non-elite university grads earn the same after “certain factors” were isolated, e.g. SAT scores. Is he saying that basically within a particular tier of “certain factors”, that the earning levels are the same between elite universities and non-elite universities? I.e. high achieving people achieve highly whether they go to Harvard or Podunk State, and that middling-achieving people achieve middlingly, whether they’re at Harvard or Podunk State? Or is he suggesting something else?
I think the divide between college/high school is more profound than the difference between say… Podunk State and Harvard. This isn’t because there’s a more profound difference in who goes to Podunk State, and who stays home, but rather because of the way the employment system is structured. Many jobs have college degrees as prerequisites- as in, it doesn’t matter how bad-ass you are, you’re not getting some jobs without college degrees. There are probably a lot more jobs out there with that sort of prerequisite than there are that say someone has to be a Harvard, Yale or Brown grad, and that they won’t consider Podunk State. I know those exist, but they’re a tiny percentage of consulting and industry jobs.
Plus, once you’re “in”, so to speak, your degree doesn’t mean so much as what’s on your resume, but the degree has to be present.
The most extensive research shows that in term of earnings, it does not matter if one goes to an elite school or not. It does not specifically say Harvard; but includes Harvard among the “elite institutions.” So, it is not comparing Harvard and Harvard alone to podunk state. It is comparing students who had the credentials to go to an elite institution but chose to go elsewhere with graduates of elite institutions. The study did not measure outcomes for people who would not be able to gain admittance to elite institutions AFAIK.
If we are going to analyze the situation completely it is not enough to just say you earn more with a college degree; it is very important to have an idea of more precisely how much more one be likely to earn and if the money and time sacrificed would be worth it.