Really? You don’t recognize the absurd fumble rate that doesn’t continue with the players when they leave? The advantage of deflating a ball is the grip. It ought to jump right off the page at you.
Are we still talking about 538? Because what jumps off the page for me from that link is:
“neil_paine: If I recall correctly, the WOWY (with or without you) evidence with players going to/from New England wasn’t very convincing after removing special teams plays.”
They also posted a whole collection of rebuttals of the Sharp report.
None of which has anything to do with whether or not fivethirtyeight has done any meaningful statistical work on this issue, which was my point. They’ve certainly talked about it, but so have we.
See, even the ones who protest that they are Pats fans but they aren’t like those Pats fans are like those Pats fans. You posted what they said in January to counter what they just wrote now, when the point they were making is that the “much maligned” Sharp analysis looks a lot more significant now.
As for not talking numbers, did you miss the big fucking chart? How about the discussion of modeling strategies (dichotomous, count, Bayesian)? That is a discussion of his analysis of the stats. And they suggest that the Pats have been cheating a long time.
Lastly, even the debunkers agreed that the stats coming from individual players show that the rate drops by about 25% during players tenure with the team.
Maybe it’s because unlike you and Elvis, I’m not obsessed with this case? Yep, I’m sure that’s it.
Now that’s interesting! I didn’t know this.
It doesn’t speak well of a person to pass off their own ignorance as someone else’s failing. I didn’t force you to express your opinion on the matter. You chose to offer it up while not knowing what you’re talking about.
Yes I saw the BIG FUCKING CHART. The BIG FUCKING CHART that was posted without any explanation (besides “I applied binomial and Poisson analysis!”) or context. Fivethirtyeight is noted for doing in-depth, well-written statistical analyses. This is not that. This is a chat transcript.
Here let me sum up my apparently incredibly difficult-to-understand position in two sentences.
Yup, look like the Patriots did it!
Nope, doesn’t look like fivethirtyeight has done any actual, fivethirtyeight-style, serious statistical analysis.
I’m not sure how my opinion on fivethirtyeight’s contribution to the discussion make me a Patriots apologist, but I’ve come to realize that I really, seriously, don’t give a shit.
Jesus. I’ll make sure to check with you before posting in any threads from now one, oh “Arbiter of All that is Correct about Football”. My original contention, if you’ll look back, is that the NFL is inconsistent about discipline. Am I allowed to post that or do you have a 538 analysis on that too?
Funny how there hasn’t been a big push to have Jerry Rice removed from the HoF and the record books.
Sorry it’s not 538.
I haven’t seen a push to remove Brady from the record books, either, nor ban him from the HoF (though I have seen some stuff about him not being a first-ballot guy. Oh the humanity!).
The only reason I mentioned those things is that, given Rice is a retired player, a four-game suspension wouldn’t matter a whole lot. 
I suppose they could ban him from being on any NFL broadcast for a while. Who’s he working for now anyway?
And you, obviously and pathetically, left out the central information, which I pointed out to you in simple language in an effort to help you understand your selective oversight. Someone genuinely interested in the facts should be grateful for that. But you offer only invective, by the bucketload, in response to *everything *you’re told. If you think you’re looking good here by doing so, you’re sadly mistaken about that too, friend.
Hentor, no doubt you’re about to point out how a 1 psi difference is palpable, having tried it yourself in a double-blind test, and how higher fumbling rates across most of the league (if at all true) is evidence that the Patriots are doing something to the ball, not that they’re actually simply better. Or you could continue to lead the chorus here; your choice.
Right after you provide us with more objective weighting factors for the Cheat Chart that would make your saintly Steelers no longer up near the top of the list anymore, right? 
It’s not a big secret that MANY quarterbacks like to have balls adjusted to suit their preferences. Brady certainly isn’t alone in that.
Brady, apparently, likes the balls a little underinflated. Aaron Rodgers has bigger hands, and likes the balls a little OVERinflated. Some quarterbacks like the balls scuffed up a little, others like a little dirt rubbed onto the balls.
Whatever. In and of itself, this doesn’t strike me as a huge deal. And Brady could have saved everyone (himself included) a lot of grief if he’d just told investigators, “Look, I like the balls a little underinflated. No cheating, just as soft as the rules allow. I ask the equipment guys to take care of that for me every week. I guess one of them went a little too far this time, and what with the cold weather, the balls deflated even a little more than they were supposed to. My bad, I’m sorry.”
Brady probably would have gotten a fine, and that probably would have satisfied almost everyone but rabid Patriot haters. Instead, everyone tried to brazen it out, and it blew up in their faces.
Wow. You told me.
I’m beyond crushed.
Actually, it all depends on who is telling me.
On the one hand, there is The Wells Report (which I quoted, and which the NFL used to suspend Brady, and fine and dock the organization 2 draft picks), the NFL front office, everyone else in this thread, just about every NFL talking head not connected with the Patriots in some way and every NFL fan who doesn’t root for the New England Patriots…
And then there is you, who believes that the Wells Report actually proves your point, and everyone, including the NFL front office, everyone else in this thread, just about every NFL talking head not connected with the Patriots in some way and every NFL fan who doesn’t root for the New England Patriots, somehow all got together on a big conference call and had a “let’s screw Tom Brady, the Patriots and Elvis because we are jealous of them” pow-wow, and we made it all up! (OK. It’s true. I was on the call.)
I can’t for the life of me understand why a person of your obvious talent isn’t running the NFL. I hope you’ve cut and pasted all of these exchanges and sent them in to each of the 32 owners…
Because Goodell should be fired any day now and they will be looking for a successor.
Perhaps once you get out, and they let you have shoelaces again and they give you your belt back, you’ll be ready.
Until then, friend. In the meantime, stop eating so much paste. And get used to loafers.
astorian, do you have a cite for anyone else illegally tampering with balls after the refs certify them before the game? That’s the key issue, and that fact seems absent from your post.
The circumstances aren’t identical, but if you just want evidence that many other quarterbacks like to have the balls tinkered with in one way or another:
http://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/wanna-know-why-deflate-gate-isnt-a-big-deal/
Yeah, the “circumstances” are different, in that those cites have nothing to do with the ossue of manipulating the balls after the referee’s pre-game certification.
The Rodgers’ one in particular is clearly pre-certification, since he talks about seeing if the ref will take air out. There’s nothing wrong, under the current rule, with preparing balls as the QB likes them.
There is something wrong with having the ball boy sneak in to deflate the ball below the legal limit after they are certified. It isn’t a complicated concept.
Adam Schefter (FWIW, yes, I know, him again) “reports” Goodell and Kraft have back-channel discussions going about how Goodell can back down with minimal embarrassment. It may be beyond that point by now.
I’m gonna say he has to go, like many said he should have after the Ray Rice blunder. He hasn’t learned anything since.
It doesn’t say anything about ‘backing down’ at all, just “resolve their differences without an appeal or possible litigation”.
Roger Goodell is clearly an idiot. The only way he won’t lose face is if he holds firm. Look, you either think Tom Brady and Patriots cheated or you don’t.
Goodell is lucky the NFL was in great shape when he took over because it seems like he’s done everything he can to make a mockery of it.
Yeah, presiding over those record setting profits for the NFL, negotiating he new CBA for labor peace for 10 years, dealing with the CTA lawsuit, and helping the huge growth of the NFL. Yep, he must be pretty dumb all right.
He’s certainly fucked up, especially with Rice, but anyone who thinks Goodell is dumb doesn’t pay much attention.
Say what? “Resolving differences” inherently entails backing down.