Revisiting the NYT Budget Balancing tool

Great Debates
1

This thing is about a year old. I searched for a thread with it, here in great debates and in elections. I can’t believe it wasn’t addressed on this site, so I must have missed it.

It’s kind of rigged to require drastic cuts in Medicare to balance the 2030 budget, but that probably reflects the reality of the situation. I suspect that some of the better elements of the Health Care Reform Act may have helped with that, but Medicare is still huge.

My answers from last year were about 32% revenue increases and 68% spending cuts (with 2030 savings):

Sacrifices are obviously necessary. Will anyone make them?

Cap Medicare starting in 2013 (unfortunately, this must be done. Hopefully in connection with a one payer system which would immediately save costs. $562B The BIG ENCHALADA

Eliminate earmarks. $14B (Fat freaking chance. Congress might agree to stop them, but they’ll start doing the same thing with a different name. But at least it’s symbolic.)

Eliminate farm subsidies $14B (Mostly symbolic anyway. Small farmers don’t get this $$$, the big farms do)

Reduce the federal civilian workforce 10%. (Back to Clinton admin levels) $15B

Reduce nuclear arsenal and star wars spending. (Seems obvious to me) $38B

Reduce military to pre-Iraq war size $49B

Cancel or delay some weapons programs. $18B

Reduce Navy and Air Force $24B

Reduce the number of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan to 30K - $169B
(I’d also reduce nuclear weapons, but that option was paired with the space program which I would not want to reduce) * (Obviously, the “ending” of the war with Iraq did much of this already.) *

Reduce Social Security benefits for those with high incomes $54B

Tighten eligibility for disability (tiny $17B, but I know this is often abused. The devil would be in the details. If someone gets another job while on disability, they need to get kicked off.)

Obama’s estate tax proposal exempting $3.5million from estate taxes. $45B
(I’d favor much higher estate taxes to off-set reductions in income taxes as a means to encourage individual initiatives.)

Return cap gains tax and dividend tax to Clinton levels. (Reducing those taxes to zero didn’t even slow down the financial meltdown.) $46B

Expire Bush tax cuts on incomes over $250,000 as proposed last fall. $115B

Raise the ceiling on the payroll tax (currently 106K) $100B

Carbon tax (my environmentalism and anti-Arab oil prejuices showing through) $71B

All of that involves 68% spending cuts and 32% tax increases and yields a small $6B surplus in 2030. Cutting the military has the added benefit of making it less likely the US will feel so big, bad and bold. That just might hold us back from further go it alone military adventures. Personally, I’d advocate maximum effective spending for intelligent anti-terrorism measures and less nukes and other strategic forces.

How to cut Medicare is obviously the gorilla in the room.

I think this debate is going to take center stage after the election. As to stone walling revenue enhancements, I say to heck with Grover Norquist. He’s evil and stupid and his ideas need to be shoved to the gutter where they belong.

2

Cut foreign aid in half, $17B
Yes, I know this is mostly symbolic and that many people have an exaggerated perception of how much foreign aid there is. Nonetheless… :slight_smile:

Eliminate farm subsidies, $14B

Cut pay of civilian federal workers by 5 percent $17B
I voted for this one over the 10% workforce reduction because (1) the savings are slightly bigger, (2) Golden Rule: I’d rather take a 5% pay cut than lose my job, :stuck_out_tongue: and (3) the civilian federal workforce is 10% larger than when Clinton was President because the US population is also about 10% more than during the Clinton presidency. :smack:

Reduce nuclear arsenal and star wars spending, **$38B **

Reduce military to pre-Iraq war size, $49B

Reduce Navy and Air Force, $24B

Cancel or delay some weapons programs, **$18B **

Reduce the number of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan to 60K, $149B
As noted, this is mostly Afghanistan now. I didn’t go for 30K mainly because IMHO as long as we have troops there, we should have enough to do the job properly. Bush the Lesser showed us what happens when you don’t. :mad:

Increase the Medicare eligibility age to 68, $56B

Raise the Social Security retirement age to 68, $71B
Voted for 68 on these because 70 seemed too extreme, while leaving it alone doesn’t acknowledge that more people are living healthier for longer than in past decades.

Reduce the tax break for employer-provided health insurance, $157B

Reduce Social Security benefits for those with high incomes $54B

Return the estate tax to Clinton-era levels, $104B

Return cap gains tax and dividend tax to Clinton-era levels, $46B

Expire Bush tax cuts on incomes over $250,000, $115B

Raise the ceiling on the payroll tax, currently 106K, $100B

Eliminate loopholes, but don’t reduce rates as much as Simpson-Bowles, $315B

Reduce mortgage deduction and others for high-income households, $54B

Carbon tax, $71B

57% tax increases, 43% tax cuts, with $124B surplus by 2030. Mind you, many of my tax “increases” are the restoration of pre-Bush II conditions, and most of the rest are simply leveling the playing field across tax brackets or income classes rather than increasing the actual percentage tax rate. That’s why I didn’t “vote” for the millionaire’s surtax, the sales tax, or the bank tax. I made an exception for the carbon tax for much the same reasons as BigAppleBucky. :wink:

3

Surplus of 550 billion dollars!

Cut Foreign Aid in Half-$17B
Eliminate Earmarks-$14B
Eliminate Farm Subsidies-$14B
Cut Pay of Civilian Federal Workers by 5 percent-$17B
Reduce the Federal Workforce by 10 percent-$15B
Cut 250,000 government contractors-$17 billion
Other cuts to the federal government-$30 billion
Cut aid to states by 5 percent-$42 billion
Reduce nuclear arsenal and space spending-$38 billion
Reduce military to pre-Iraq War size and further reduce troops in Asia and Europe-$49 billion (I’d adjust this to increase the presence of troops in Asia)
Reduce Navy and Air Force fleets-$24 billion
Cancel or delay some weapons programs-$18 billion
Reduce the number of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan to 30,000 by 2013-$169 billion (Already’s happened more or less)
Increase the Medicare eligibility age to 70-$104 billion (For workers not engaged in physical labour for five years prior to retirement)
Reduce the tax break for employer-provided health insurance-$157 billion
Cap Medicare growth starting in 2013-$562 billion (Not sure how workable this will be while keeping Medicare recognizable but let’s try at least, or implement the Ryan-Wyden Plan)
Raise the Social Security retirement age to 70-$247 billion (See note on Medicare)
Reduce Social Security benefits for those with high incomes-$54 billion
Tighten eligibility for disability-$17 billion
Use an alternate measure for inflation-$82 billion
The Lincoln-Kyl proposal (For Estate tax)-$20 billion
Eliminate loopholes, reduce rates (Bowles-Simpson plan)-$175 billion

I’d also be willing to increasing the estate and/or the capital gains tax in exchange for cuts in the corporate tax rate.

88% spending cuts and 12% tax increases.

4

This seems almost trivially easy. I ended up with a $400B surplus in 2030 and a $100B surplus in 2015.

Eliminate Earmarks-$14B
Eliminate Farm Subsidies-$14B
Reduce nuclear arsenal and space spending-$38 billion
Reduce military to pre-Iraq War size and further reduce troops in Asia and Europe-$49 billion
Reduce Navy and Air Force fleets-$24 billion
Reduce the number of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan to 30,000 by 2013-$169 billion
Increase the Medicare eligibility age to 68-$56 billion
Reduce the tax break for employer-provided health insurance-$157 billion
Cap Medicare growth starting in 2013-$562 billion
Raise the Social Security retirement age to 68-$71 billion
Reduce Social Security benefits for those with high incomes-$54 billion
Obama proposal for estate tax-$45 billion
Obama proposal on investment taxes-$24 billion
Expiration of Bush tax cuts for incomes over $250K-$115B
Subject higher incomes to more payroll tax-$100B
Eliminate loopholes, reduce rates (Bowles-Simpson plan)-$175 billion
Carbon tax - $71B

65% spending cuts and 35% revenue increases. Nothing in the tax plan, with the exception of the carbon tax, brings tax rates beyond the Clinton years. In fact, they’re usually lower. Implement the carbon tax to ameliorate the negative externality problem. Reduce the tax treatment of health care coverage to reduce the conomic distortions in the health care market. Increase Medicare and SS ages for the reasons already stated by others.

5

One thing that doesn’t seem to be taken into account is the effect of budget surpluses on interest expenses. It also doesn’t explore the impact of eliminating the social security ca entirely. But within these parameters:

I balance the budget with 66% tax increase and 34% spending cuts. Actually I end up with $170 Billion surplus in 2015 and $40 billion surplus in 2030. Over the long term we have to bring medicare under control or our budget is going to run away from us again.

Most of the tax increase is returning to Clinton era tax levels FOR EVERYONE.

The only domestic program I cut was farm subsidies. Domestic programs and foreign aid account for less than 10% of the budget, there simply isn’t much juice here. If farm product prices start dropping, I would consider reinstating these subsidies.

Reduce troops in Iraq and Afghanistan by 2015.

Medicare eligibility age to 68

Social security age to 70

Use Alternate Inflation measure

Return to Clinton Era levels of tax for estate tax

Return to Clinton era level investment tax FOR EVERYONE

Return to Clinton level income tax FOR EVERYONE

Raise the social security cap (totally eliminating it would double the effect of that line item)

Millionaires 5% surtax.

Bank tax (more like a financial crisis insurance fund).

6

I solved the deficit.

Eliminate farm subsidies
Cut pay of civilian federal workers by 5 percent (actually 15% is needed)
Other cuts to the federal government (more widespread plus 5% across the board)
Reduce nuclear arsenal and space spending
Reduce military to pre-Iraq War size and further reduce troops in Asia and Europe
Reduce Navy and Air Force fleets
Cancel or delay some weapons programs
Reduce the number of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan to 60,000 by 2015 (I’d cut it to 0)
Tighten eligibility for disability
Return the estate tax to Clinton-era levels (higher on a progessive scale)
President Obama’s proposal (with many changes in the qualification of capital gains and fully taxed dividends)
Allow expiration for income above $250,000 a year
Allow expiration for income below $250,000 a year
Payroll tax: Subject some incomes above $106,000 to tax (subject all incomes)
Millionaire’s tax on income above $1 million
National sales tax (coupled with a standard deduction)
Bank Tax

7

I did it without cutting any Medicare.

Eliminate earmarks
Reduce nuclear arsenal and space spending
Reduce military to pre-Iraq War size and further reduce troops in Asia and Europe
Reduce Navy and Air Force fleets
Reduce the number of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan to 30,000 by 2013
Reduce Social Security benefits for those with high incomes
Use an alternate measure for inflation
Return the estate tax to Clinton-era levels
Return rates to Clinton-era levels
Allow expiration for income above $250,000 a year
Allow expiration for income below $250,000 a year
Payroll tax: Subject some incomes above $106,000 to tax
Millionaire’s tax on income above $1 million
Eliminate loopholes, but keep taxes slightly higher
Reduce mortgage deduction and others for high-income households
Carbon tax
Bank Tax

8

Here’s the thing, eventually you HAVE to cut medicare (or any other program that grows faster than GDP growth. It becomes unsustainable. At some point you run out of band-aids and when you do, you will be forced to make much deeper more painful cuts than you would have if you engaged in more reasonable reform earlier on.

We can phase it in over a generation or two but in the end, unless we get Universal Health Care that works, medicare is going to consume our budget.