If we’re just discussing narrow dirty politics rather than the rule of law, RFK being pushed off the ballot in NY is unlikely to have any effect on the outcome. Harris will carry NY easily with or without RFK muddying the voters’ decisions.
A similar or matching ruling from swing states wherein RFK is likely to divert more Harris votes than trump votes is the outcome to be wished for.
I read the decision, and it’s interesting. As his counsel notes, RFK was screwed (really: screwed himself) regardless of what address he put on filing papers, because he had maintained voter registration in NY despite not having lived there since 2014…so, whatever address he used, he’d likely end up in court. So, his counsel recommended NY, though it’s not clear if he (Paul Rossi) fully understood that RFK hadn’t actually maintained a real residency there.
The post-publicity attempts to suddenly pay rent and spend a night in NY are pretty damning, though.
So that SHOULD mean that his current status of being on the California ballot can be challenged. Though as was said of NY earlier, that’s not really where we should be hoping he’ll be knocked off the ballot. (California will vote Harris no matter what.)
Still, having it in the news that he’s been knocked off the ballot in ANY state is probably beneficial.
FWIW, here are the 19 states for which RFK Jr. is currently qualified to be on the ballot:
Alaska
Colorado
District of Columbia
Florida
Illinois
Indiana
Maine
Michigan
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Wisconsin
I’ve bolded the three “Blue Wall” states plus in-play North Carolina and the close-to-in-play Florida.
If RFK jr is taking Trump votes would it not be better if RFK is ON swing state ballots?
In a strategic sense for Harris/Walz, sure.
But, in general, we should be discouraging shenanigans like providing false voter registration information.
It’s not at all clear that’s the effect RFK will have when the voters, including the ones the pollsters can’t reach, actually hit the voting booths in Nov. Polls suck at reading 3rd party candidates.
Further, it’s certainly possible that RFK would pull more from Harris in some states and more from trump in other states. Depending on how much RFK’s particular brand of nuttiness lines up with that state’s brand of nuttiness. So which states end up removing RFK may be more important than that any states remove him.
I’m seeing reports Jr tried to approach the Harris campaign about a cabinet position in exchange for an endorsement.
Just…wow. I knew the guy was delusional but that’s just utterly divorced from reality.
Secretary of the Department of Silly Walks but he has to endorse Trump.
On a more serious note, I hope they held him off with a 10 foot pole, masks, and gloves.
From what I’ve read, they just ignored him.
Huh. Not on the ballot in Ohio. Innnnnteresting.
Except that he can use it to milk sympathy votes from the conspiracy-minded.*
“Help, help, I’m being repressed!”
*Junior and Trump are both fighting hard for that demographic.
I don’t disagree with any of that. But I do suspect that the number of votes RFK Jr. could win from those who feel sorry for him is smaller than the number he could have won if on the ballot in all the states (or in all the states in which he’s had a chance of ballot-access).
Time will tell. Or perhaps more accurately, time will approximate (since polling-place exit surveys are not infallible by any means).
A setback in Federal appeals court for him: Court To RFK Jr.: Fact-Checking Doesn’t Violate 1st Amendment Nor Does Section 230 Make Meta A State Actor - Above the Law
Better tell Junior’s VP pick Nicole Shanahan that. From NBC investigative reporter Brandy Zadrozny:
I listened to the Impact Theory interview segment that Zadrozny cites on Twitter. Shanahan actually says that she and Junior face a choice between 1) staying on the ballot and hoping for enough support to make their “party” valid beyond 2024, and 2) “joining forces with Trump” to prevent a Harris/Walz victory.
These two really do hate the Democrats enough to enable a Trump win.
That reinforces what I said. If the only goal was to help Trump, then it would be a very easy decision. It sounds to me like he’ll only drop out if Trump gives him something to make it worth his while, as Shanahan is dropping hints about a job at the HHS.
Why would making their party valid be helping Trump? Trump is with the Republicans.
Everything you posted seems to confirm my assumptions, that RFK Jr is not in any way doing this for Trump. He might hate the Democrats, I’m almost sure he does, but he’s not clearly acting as an agent of Trump either.
That’s not the helping Trump part. Shanahan initially says in the interview that if they get at least 5% of the vote that would open up funding beyond 2024 and keep their “party” going.
Junior doesn’t have to love Trump. Junior’s goal, now explicitly reinforced by Shanahan, is to help Trump win in order to punish Democrats who are seen as the greater evil (in large part because they’ve refused to accept Junior’s genius and are trying to keep him off the ballot).
I don’t know how to make this any clearer. Does it have to come down to RFK Jr.dropping out and officially endorsingTrump, or won’t that be enough to convince you?
I think it’s just myself being unclear, so I sincerely apologize (and I mean that, no sarcasm). My point was solely that JFK Jr is not a MAGA person or Trumper. But I agree that he is anti-Democrat, and if he feels that helping Trump will hurt the Democrats he is open to it.
He also is looking to elevate himself, and is definitely not one of the people willing to put Trump in front of his own interests (which too many others seem to be willing to do).
I didn’t mean to imply that he is opposed to helping Trump, just that it’s not his ultimate goal. If he did help Trump, it would be a means to an end.
It looks like he has a few goals:
Supporting Trump could help the third goal, and if he can finagle the second goal in the process then even better, but I don’t think he’d do so at the expense of the first goal.
That is really paradoxical, though, because if Individual-ONE were to retake the WH, he would be pushing forward hard on Project 2025, which is likely to be striving to marginalize all non-Republican parties and basically eliminate democracy in the US altogether. So if he really wants to have a viable third party, this is an incredibly stupid way to pursue that.
There you go again! Being rational.