Based on conversations with black friends and family members, there’s no chance of this without the Republican party utterly repudiating Trump and his years of birtherism. Just as a first step. I don’t think the party quite recognizes how incredibly offensive (even personally offensive, based on the conversations I’ve had) black supporters of the Obamas (i.e. the vast majority of black Americans) found this.
They don’t care about that. They’re fine peeling off whatever they can get, even if it doesn’t fit anecdotal data points. As much as one would like to think nobody’s votes could be bought at any price, I don’t think that is true in real life. Some people can be bought off with crumbs. Fact is, Trumps approval among blacks gone UP, not down, since he became president, and that’s without any significant reachout and arguably even more antagonizing than ever (see: NFL kneeling).
Democrats probably don’t need to worry, yet, but they should keep an eye out.
That article looks like it’s grasping at straws to make what is basically a tiny difference something more significant.
Well, ok then, but CNN doesn’t typically grasp at straws in ways that favor Trump. One would think that with all the terribleness that’s happened since then, it would be quite odd even if it was a flat line, much less an small uptick.
If I’m not mistaken, every Senate Democrat voted for the bill.
One item to note is that prison and sentencing reform has been going on at the state level for years. And the reason is simple-money. It is expensive to house prisoners, and the courts have steadily been making it more expensive. The state legislators have noted that and further noted that since violent crime, especially in white areas, has been going down for quite a while now there isn’t as big a push to throw away the key. So when the state looks to balance the budget, prisons and especially sentence reform is suddenly a bi-partisan issue. The feds are just catching up.
That article is from August. The last poll shows his approval at 7-87, basically the same that he was elected at.
Yeah, and does not reflect criminal justice reform, or any of the after-effects of criminal justice reform. Like I said, I’m kind of shocked it hasn’t gone down since he was elected. But given the close elections we’ve seen in some races, it really doesn’t take much to make or break an election.
Yes but all the democrats voted for the bill, while 1/4 of the GOP voted against it. So why would this turn black voters away from democrats? Also this legislation promoting second chances is only passing now that white communities are undergoing drug epidemics, when it was only the black community undergoing the drug epidemic the solution was violent cops and curtailing the bill of rights.
Also as others have mentioned, Trump’s birtherism and claims that Obama faked his transcripts from college was a very thinly veiled way of saying ‘there is no way a black person is qualified to be president’ and that fact isn’t lost on many Americans.
I don’t know what’ll happen, but the GOP keeps getting more and more openly racist. So I don’t know if that’ll peel a lot of black voters off. Black people know which political party is full of racist whites, and I’m not sure large numbers of them will join up with them just because of this law.
But I’ve been wrong before.
Sorry to include the whole quote in the response here, but I wasn’t really sure where to snippet.
I think it’s worth pointing out what is significant in this equation. In my estimation, and from what I understand, a shift of 5% to 10% in the black vote would be significant. I think this could be achieved with a different approach to a couple issues such as the one stated in the OP.
To be clear I am not predicting anything crazy like a majority of black voters will vote for Republicans any time soon - there is nothing I have seen or experienced that would indicate that that is a plausible assertion. I am predicting that the Republicans have some low hanging fruit issues that will help them do better with minorities without alienating their base.