UK inflation rate was announced at 2.3% this morning. First quarter growth (calendar year) was the best it’s been for two years, although only 0.6%. Employment figures have been pretty good for several months. Interest rates are predicted to go down, although before Sunak’s announcement, the majority of pundits were predicting the rate cuts would be in August rather than June. Government debt’s not in a good state, but lower inflation, a good economy and lower interest rates will support optimistic forecasts. Sunak’s government got the law for the Rwanda asylum plan passed, and there’s been news it’s been having an effect. A humorous anecdote from a couple of weeks ago was that UK asylum seekers were moving to Ireland, and Ireland wanted to send them back. The British government’s response was to request they be sent to France. I’ve not heard any recent news about NHS waiting lists, but there have been some announcements about increasing the domestic healthcare workforce.
Basically, I think Sunak is predicting this is about as good as it’s going to get. He can argue he’s done a good job and achieved his 5 Points Plan and hope that there’s a summer uplift in national spirit that will carry him through. A bit of Labour scandal such as Angela Rayner being proved to have lied about her taxes could also help the Tories out.
Having said that, the Conservative Party has been in government for 14 years. There’s lots of partisanship and rhetoric about how things are now versus May 2010, but I think the general sentiment is that the nation’s worse off. I think if someone dug into the statistics, that would probably prove true. There’s also a lot of baggage from the failures of previous prime ministers of the current government. My prediction is that however well Sunak has done over the past few months, the British electorate is ready to give the other party a chance to take charge.