Risks of USPS Manipulation by the Trump Admin - 2026 and forward

Between Trump’s executive order to manipulate mail-in-voting, and the backlash against it, I’ve created a new thread independent of the general Trump threads and certain ongoing elections to discuss the possible consequences as we approach Mid-terms, various state elections, and eventually 2028.

It’s a significant risk especially in purple states, and may serve as a direct attack on states like my own Colorado that does all-by-mail options.

Some sources of information to those who hadn’t been watching this particular political fight:

Of course, I don’t claim to be unbiased, I’m deeply concerned about it, because while I agree with sentiments that most postal workers are protective of our rights, and most election officials as well, the commutation of sentence here in Colorado proves that no, it’s not 100%, and I could easily see any Federal charges for misapplication of mail being blanket pardoned by Trump.

[ ONLY bringing up Tina Peters as an example, this thread isn’t about her, take it to another thread or start your own if you want to talk about her actions past, present or future ]

If there is a ruling that states votes must ARRIVE by Election day, it would be simple to have mail in blue districts delayed a day or two. Losing mail- would be much harder, and many postal workers would report or complain. But delays do happen.

It’s a existential crisis for the USPS. If they can’t be counted on for mail-in voting, then what are they good for? The postal workers union seemed to acknowledge this; if they become a political tool, then one or both parties will work to eliminate them.

In the short-term the executive order requirements sound non-trivial. Aside from legal maneuvers, the complexity might prevent any roll-out before mid-terms.

If states effectively lose the ability to run elections via USPS, I wonder if this will push them to expand online voting?

It might sound simple to you, but from what I know of the workings of the Postal Service, it would not be that simple.

I use a drop-box specifically because of this.

Using Colorado as an example, and using data from Wikipedia:
In total, Harris got 1,728,159 votes (54%) to Trump’s 1,377,441 (43%). 23 counties went for Harris, while 41 went for Trump (a margin of Harris +350,718). The counties that went for Harris delivered a total of 1,227,893 votes for Harris, and 663,494 for Trump (a margin of Harris +564,399), while the counties that went for Trump had a margin of Trump +213,681.

This means that if Trump’s operatives looked just by county, they would have to delay or otherwise spoil about 68% of the votes from those blue counties, which is not as bad as I’d feared.

Of course, it could be worse. In any of those Harris counties, there were still some pro-Trump geographic areas, and Trump’s postal service could have selectively targeted blue areas on a finer scale. Or they could have used other demographic information to filter out individuals.

And, of course, they could combine this with various other forms of cheating.

Yes, do this. I always have.

Don’t mail your ballot back, drop it in a secure drop box.

I’ll mail mine as long as I’ve got plenty of time for it arrive, regardless of any delays. If there’s less than 2 weeks or so left, I just swing by city hall and either use their drop box IF it’s inside the building (even if the slot is outside). Otherwise I’ll bring it in and hand it directly to the clerk. In the past, if early voting has already started, the clerk will just have me do that instead. And, no matter what method I use, I always keep en eye on my myvote page to make sure it’s received/counted.

WRT drop boxes, I’ve seen those get tampered with way too often to trust free standing ones, even in front of city hall. In one case, a mayor just up and decided to walk off with one of them. The (republican) DA said he didn’t break any laws because he didn’t, technically, break into the box or tamper with the ballots themselves.

But the drop boxes have been raided, or faked or looted.

Yep.

Cites, please.

Pretty sure at least one of those cites would be the 2 in Oregon that were set on fire in 2024. If yes, remember that only one of those attacks was marginally successful and the other barely at all. But I’ll wait to see what you produce.

I’m sure this may happen more frequently in blue areas of red states or in purple states, but it’s not a reason to distrust drop boxes entirely. They need to be closely guarded and measures taken to remediate anticipated damages, sure. But for lots of us, drop boxes are the best way to submit our votes. I’ll trust the drop boxes over rural mail carriers any day.

https://kymkemp.com/2026/05/06/oops-ballots-found-uncounted-in-locked-humboldt-drop-box/

https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2025/01/24/after-arson-wa-lawmakers-advance-bill-to-warn-of-ballot-box-tampering-penalties/

Mind you- in general drop boxes are safe as NPR explains below-

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/25/nx-s1-5163635/ballot-drop-boxes-explainer

But that doesnt mean 100% safe. Yes, the mail could be played with and drop boxes could have issues. Both are not likely. But I didnt think the crap the current Administration is pulling was likely either.

You are correct- drop boxes are- in general- trustworthy. So is the US mail.

I did of course already see the cite previously provided by @Joey_P. I don’t know enough about the stunt to know if there was any change to the vote count as a result of the stunt. Based on what has been provided, it doesn’t appear the ballots were tampered with or uncounted. So…

With respect to your Humboldt County cite, that had nothing to do with drop box tampering. It was simply an oversight on the part of the elections staff.

From your cite:

The Humboldt County Office of Elections has determined that this error occurred when election workers checked the drop box and there was a miscommunication about whether it had been fully emptied. The Elections Office has already updated its protocols to make sure this will not happen again. A lock out, tag out procedure is now in place for every drop box prior to certification to ensure each one is physically verified as empty and secured before elections results are finalized.

In your LA cite:

AIR7 video captured video of the ballot box, which is located near the Civic Center in Downtown L.A. Election officials discovered a small number of vote-by-mail ballots with fire damage in the drop box on Sunday morning and filed a report with the Los Angeles Police Department.

(Emphasis mine.)

The remedy here is for the elections staff to contact the persons whose ballots were damaged and have them resubmit their ballots. Kind of a pain, but not earth shattering, and won’t change the outcome of an election.

With respect to your Washington State cite, that’s the one I was thinking of when I said I was pretty sure it was one in Oregon. I remember those instances well, because one was in Oregon where little damage was inflicted due to remedial measures being taken to douse a fire started in the box; the other was the same night in Vancouver, Washington, which I’m sure you know is just over the river from Portland. That one was marginally more successful because Washington State had not anticipated fire damage the way Oregon did. Looks like your cite actually indicates that Washington took steps to protect the boxes better – as they should have.

In neither case were the damaged ballots enough to flip the results of any candidate’s election.

This stuff happens in every election.

Glad you posted the NPR cite. As stated, drop boxes are pretty darned reliable.

Overall, I don’t think ballot drop box tampering is nearly as ubiquitous as people believe. It’s scaremongering, and I hate that.

You haven’t met my mail carrier. :slight_smile: I don’t trust him with the day-to-day mail, let alone a ballot!

I also do what @Joey_P does: I verify my ballot has been received and counted by our elections officials. I do it for every election. My drop box hasn’t let me down yet, and I’ve been using it for 21 years.

One nice feature, for the states that have it, is opt in live updates. For example, I just got an email that my ballot has been mailed to me, and I’ll get another when it’s returned. It limits (but not eliminates) some of my concerns about missed opportunities.

Again, my personal, local concerns are part and parcel of being in a very red area of a light blue state. Lots of opportunities for mischief given the … aggressive signage of some of the homes on my street. So it’s ballot box only for me.

But Trump’s actions that cited above, and the most recent appearance on NBC give me plenty of worries about what he can do by both whim and malice and the power of a federal pardon for those who are happy to comply:

Trump began to sour on Welker after she pointed out in the interview that aired Sunday that there’s “no evidence” of rigged elections in the United States.

“Do you have evidence?” she asked after Trump slammed California’s elections as “rigged.”

The president then fired back: “All I have to do is look.”

When Welker replied: “That’s not evidence,” the interview took a turn.

“You’re crooked, and Meet the Press is crooked, and so is ABC and CBS and CNN one-sided crooked networks. Let’s call it quits, because I’ve had enough,” Trump raged. “Thank you, darling. Have a good time.”

Note this is nothing NEW, but if he tells federal employees to similarly identify because “All [they] have to do is Look” … well, historically I thought it would be a breaking moment for the nation, but the last year has given me great doubts.

I agree, but they are not 100% safe either. But generally- safe.

The dropbox I use (at the county elections office) has a slot barely large enough to accommodate the ballot. It also has a camera. While neither completely rules out sabotage, they make wholesale destruction less likely.

(And I doubt a random pile of envelopes in an enclosed space would erupt into a massive conflagration in any case.)

In WA State, I get a text message when the ballot is mailed out. I get a text message when it is received either via mail or a dropbox. Get another text message when it has been verified and counted. I did need to verify my signature one time, but it was pretty easy to do so on line. Last year, I lost my ballot somehow, printed a new one on line, and it was counted.

The ballots and envelopes all have my unique bar code. So, as long as I pay attention that my vote was counted, I’m 99.9% sure everything is kosher.

Personally, I would be hard pressed to name anything that is 100% safe. Can you?

Not spontaneously. The two cases of ballot flames (cited upthread) were from someone putting an incendiary device in the boxes. Thin slots, such as the one at your county elections office, are meant to help prevent such devices, since those are often too bulky to fit. I’ve also seen mail boxes that have rollers in the slot that will likely do an even better job. I don’t know if any ballot drop boxes have these rollers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they do.

In my smallish city, the one drop-box is located inside the local hardware store. Similarly, in the next smallish city up the road, the drop-box is inside the local supermarket.

These seem more secure, I think, than outdoor curb-side boxes.

The risk just got real-

State election officials could soon face a stark choice: Hand over voter lists to the Trump administration or risk losing Postal Service delivery for mail-in ballots.

That dilemma stems from newly proposed USPS rules that seek to comply with an executive order President Donald Trump signed this spring to crack down on mail-in voting. If courts let the order stand, it would give the federal government an unprecedented role in elections — and could put even more voter data in the hands of Trump officials searching for supposed election fraud.

The proposed rules lay out new conditions that states would have to meet to send ballots through the mail, including giving the agency lists of all voters set to receive mail ballots.