Opinions from experienced hurricane rider-outers solicited.
I live, if you want to call it that, a bit south of Conroe, TX (thus a bit north of Houston) and about sixty miles as the crow flies from the coast. As of Tuesday evening, and assuming the forecast track, Hurricane Rita is projected to make landfall as a Cat. 4 about fifty miles west coastwise from Galveston, with the center of the storm possibly passing within 40 miles or less of my position by Saturday evening. Obviously there is considerable uncertainty as to actual position at landfall, but I’ll assume the worst case for now.
I’m provisioned for about five days without power or clean water. No evacuation orders have been issued as yet for this area, and I am having a bit of trouble assessing the risk of remaining at my ground-floor apartment during the storm. Apparently this location did not flood during Allison in '01, and overall rainfall amounts are likely to be less than during that storm as Rita will spend less time over the area. I’m thinking wind damage may be a problem, though. I could leave the area and hit a motel or camp for a few days, but there remain many Louisiana evacuees in Texas, on top of those now evacuating the coastal areas, so I suspect finding accomodation anywhere within several hundred miles is going to be quite difficult. I’d be happy to hear any opinions on whether my location is far enough inland to have a reasonable chance of making it though the storm, or whether bugging out is the better option.
If your building is of sturdy construction you should be safe 60 miles inland.
The question is this: Are you physically/mentally equipped to go a long period of time without electricity? It’s still hot, and no A/C or fans could be unpleasant.
We were without electricity from the power company for 24 days after Opal in '95, but we had an electric generator for fridge, water well, fans, TV, etc.
I don’t think we could have made it without the generator.
Usually power crews from across the country head to a disaster area to restore electric power, but now they’re already in La, Ms, and Fl. It could be a long time before they get to you.
First let me say that only you can decided what you’ll do in the event Rita comes straight for you. That being said, here’s what I’d do: I’d stay for sure and I only live 20 miles inland as the crow flies.
The main reason they want people to evacuate is for the flood waters. Those that come from the tidal surge like in Biloxi in Katrina and from the rising flood waters of people in low places, think New Orleans here. So you’ve pretty much said you won’t be effected by either of those things.
I’d definitely have enough non-perishable food and water on hand for a week. Right before the storm I’d fill up my tub and about anything I own with water. I’d turn my A/c way down and I’d turn my refrig. and freezer up to their coldest settings.
Now if you have some big trees in your yard that you are afraid will fall on your house, then maybe I’d go to a friend or family’s house in the area or even to local shelter, but I’d not do the mass evacuation thing considering your location.
It would be helpful with making the decision to know where this storm is going to make landfall but we really can’t wait that long. All of Texas is a fairly big “cone”. I’d stay if we knew it would be around Brownsville or pass to the east of Galv but we don’t know that.
I’m closer to the water than you and most forecasts put it in at Matagorta (that’s a little worse for Sugar Land than Galv).
We are getting out later this evening or in the am barring any big changes in the track.
If I was in Conroe I might stay but it still depends on so many things. Do you have kids that will be terrified in a 10 hour storm? What kind of house you have, any flooding history…“It depends”.
I’m south of you in Cypress and will stay unless it’s a Cat 4 direct hit just so I can limit my house from water damage. Then, once everything’s secure I’ll probably join my family who’s evacuated out of town until power is restored.
If I lived in an apartment though, I’d probably move valuables off the floor and haul ass.
I’m by myself so have no other family to worry about locally. I checked with the property managment folks and a few others around here, and flooding looks fairly unlikely for this location, so I’ll stay for now.
The other thing against decamping is that the roads are like parking lots at the moment. Worst traffic jam I’ve ever seen on I-45. More than two hours to get from Greenspoint to my location, normally twenty-five minutes tops. Basically all northbound routes are solid with traffic.
Everyone from the area who replied, thanks. Stay safe and all that jazz.
FWIW, I’m going to ride it out in the 1960 area, south of you, Kabong. If I could leave before Friday, I would, but I can’t, and I think Friday morning will be too late.
I am going to be with friends in a sturdy house, as I wouldn’t even think of trying to sit through a Cat 5 (as she’s now become) hurricane in my flimsy apartment in Montrose.
The mandatory evacuation zones extend right up to the east side of downtown. In my recollection, Houston has never been evacuated before, and the logistics of moving several million people up four or five highways dictate that options are beginning to disappear rapidly, even though we’re still almost two days out from the arrival of the first hurricane force winds.
That being said, about two hours ago, I drove through downtown (squandering some of my precious tank of gas) and I-45 was moving at regular freeway speeds, albeit with a bit heavier than normal traffic load for 9:45 PM on a Wednesday.
If you do decide to stay, can you get more water, today? Unless the stores are sold out (which I know happens when people worry - you can’t buy bread the day before a blizzard is predicted around here) think about getting a few extra gallons of water. You’re bound to use them eventually even if you don’t lose power for an extended time, and I keep thinking of that guy in LA they found over 2 weeks later who had only had a gallon and a half of water at the start…
All I can say is that I was living in Dallas when Carla hit in 1961. I can remember hellacious thunderstorms with the wind blowing so hard the rain was going sideways, and tornado warnings.
I’m between Houston & Katy a few miles north of I-10. We’re staying put. The thought of trying to deal with the gridlock on the highway is more threatening to me than Rita. Where we live flooding is not a main concern. Wind damage and being without power for extended periods are our primary concern. We should be OK on food & water supply, have a natural gas grill so I’ll still be able to cook a hot meal, tubs have been sanitized for alternate water storage and we can haul buckets of water fro the neighbor’s pool for flushing if needed.