[QUOTE=Gangster Octopus]
One other crucial point that guided the South and Lee’s strategy was that they felt that thye really needed to get the support of England and France if they were to win. They knew they were unlikley to win a drawn out war, but if they could show enough resolve and win enough battles the European powers would support them and that would force the North to sue for peace. Whether that would have ever happened is hard to say, England would have found it very hard to support the South, and in their minds slavery. France would not support the South if England was not also planning to.
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This is an important point, one James McPherson focuses on in his counterfactual, “If the Lost Order Hadn’t Been Lost,” in What If?, ed. Robert Cowley (which I’ve just finished rereading). In the essay McPherson posits a scenario where Union forces do not discover Lee’s Special Orders No. 191 in a field in September, 1862. It was largely due to intelligence from this order that the Union eked out victory at Antietam/Sharpesburg on September 17, 1862 forcing the Confederates to retreat back into Virginia.
In the counterfactual, Jackson successfully takes Harper’s Ferry, resupplying forces that have been successful but are spent after successive victories at the Seven Days’ Battles, Cedar Mountain, Second Manassas and Chantilly. Resupplied, Confederate forces move into Pennsylvania, burn the railroad bridge at Harrisburg before moving southwards towards a crossroads called Gettysburg. In McPherson’s scenario, a decisive battle is fought there with the Confederacy emerging victorious due to superior positioning on the high ground running from Culp’s Hill, to Cemetery Hill, along Cemetery Ridge to Big Round Top.
With a string of major victories under his belt, Lee and the Army of Northern Virginia proceed towards Baltimore. The victory has the added effect of allowing France and Britain to recognize the Confederate States. In the ensuing election of November 1862, demoralized Northern voters, casting ballots overwhelmingly for Democrats, sweep Republicans out of power in Congress putting pressure on the President to make peace.
Of course because the Union won at Antietam, none of that came to pass. The North could claim a long-needed victory, Republicans maintained control of Congress, the British and French didn’t recognize Southern independence and Lincoln had the victory he needed to promulgate the Emancipation Proclamation effective January 1, 1863.
So in a discussion of Lee’s brilliance or capabilities, I would say that he was a great commander who was dealt a hard hand to play. Moreover, in war it is rarely the genius of the general that determines victory or defeat. Sometimes it is a thing as small as the proverbial lost nail that holds the shoe that supports the horse that carries the general who gives the orders to the men that shoot and die that makes the difference between success and failure.