In Canada, we don’t have an estate tax. Instead, the inheritors of the estate pay income tax on the money at their current tax rate (with lots of exemptions for the first X amount, a family home, etc). Since the top marginal rate in Canada is 29%, it would seem that if the American estate tax goes to 55%, Canada will have a significant advantage. Fine with me. Millionaires and their businesses are welcome here.
Our system seems superior anyway, because it puts the responsibility for the payment on the recipients, rather than having to hire lawyers to administer an estate. Also, it acts as an incentive for wealthy people to leave more of their money to the poorest family members or to charity. Give your money to a tax-exempt organization, and no tax is collected at all. A LOT of wealthy Canadians donate their estates to schools, parks, museums, etc.
But here’s what I would be worried about if I were an American - forget the social justice angle for a minute, and consider the effect on sole proprietorships. Let’s say I’ve built up a medium-sized business making specialty products. I’ve grown the business to $20 million in value based on its annual sales, inventory, fixed assets, etc. My actual salary from that business might only be $100,000 per year or something, and I have most of my actual cash invested in the business to grow it. When my kids came of age, they came to work in the family business, and by the time I die they know it inside and out.
Now, I die. The government comes along, and taxes my company at 55% of $15 million after my $5 million deduction. They hand a bill to my kids for 8.25 million dollars. The kids have to go out and take out a loan to pay the tax bill, and this becomes a new cost burden on the company, which either causes it to fail or to not be able to finance new growth. If it fails, the community loses jobs, people go on unemployment, the government loses the annual tax revenue my company created.
Not being all that familiar with American estate tax law, let me ask: Is this a possible scenario? Or is there something in the estate tax that would prevent this from happening? Bear in mind that a lot of small businesses are under-capitalized and often barely manage to make payroll. There’s a lot of $20 million companies that could not survive a sudden $8.5 million liability. Do you really want to destroy companies and jobs this way? Especially if the estate tax isn’t generating much in revenue anyway?
It’s easy for a small business to be worth a lot of money on paper, and yet not generate much in the way of profit. Typically, you’d value a company by looking at the present value of its fixed assets, the real estate value of the buildings and land, then a formula based on revenue and profit. Take a typical family-owned business like a car dealership - if it’s situated on a busy road, it could easily be on a lot worth several million dollars, and have a showroom building worth another few million. The repair shop could have hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars worth of diagnostic equipment, power tools, lifts, etc. A typical car dealership might have $15 million in inventory. All told, it’s not hard to get a dealership that isn’t carrying a lot of debt to a paper value of $20 million, and yet that dealership may only be generating an operating profit after payroll and taxes of a couple of hundred thousand dollars. Those are the kinds of businesses I’d worry about being hammered by the government.
But perhaps even more to the point, if the owners know the government is going to hammer them and set up a situation where their family will probably not be able to continue running it, they may choose to keep more of the money rather than re-invest it in expansion and job creation, or they may sell the business early and blow the money, or perhaps not go into business in the first place.
You have to consider the disincentive effects of taxes - it’s easy to justify a tax if all you consider is how much money you will collect on a straight accounting calculation. It becomes harder when you start to consider how people will respond to the incentives the tax creates. The luxury tax was supposed to generate hundreds of billions for the government, but it cost money and ultimately had to be repealed. Incentives matter.