Has it been four years already? We’re a month out from the start of the Rugby World Cup so I thought I’d get a thread going. Here’s my take on the pools. Top two go through and third place gets a trip to Japan in 2019.
Group A
The toughest pool to pick by far, the final order may come down to bonus points. The matches between Australia, England and Wales will be epic. Poor old Fiji and Uruguay will face floggings from the big three, as they all try to snatch bonus point wins. My (very tentative) prediction as to the final order.
**England ** - home advantage will give them enough to take narrow wins over Wales and Australia. Australia - a narrow loss against England, a thrilling draw against Wales, but bonus points or points differential puts them through. Wales - a failure to stay close enough to England dooms them to go out at the pool stage after drawing their final game with Australia (which they would have won if it were played in Cardiff). Fiji - may give England a scare in the opener, but don’t look to have the players to upset any of the big 3 in the end. A consolation win over Uruguay is all they’ll have to go home with. Uruguay - will target the Fiji game as their only realistic chance of a win. Utterly outclassed by the other teams in the pool.
Group B
South Africa - roll through this group with 4 wins, although Samoa and Scotland are competitive for 40-60 minutes they lack the staying power to keep up with the Springboks for the full 80. Scotland - squeak through against Samoa in their last match of the pool. Samoa - look great against USA and Japan, competitive for a time against South Africa, and lose a thriller against Scotland. Japan - demolish a tired American scrum in their last game. Might give Scotland a fright earlier on. USA - shafted by the draw, the USA have to play Japan just 4 days after facing the Springboks.
Group C
New Zealand - Argentina will run them surprisingly close in the opening game, but that’s all. Argentina - will have to play well against Tonga and Georgia to secure their points but should have enough to do it. Georgia - beat Tonga first up in a bruising encounter for both sides. Have their moments against Argentina and New Zealand, demolish Namibia up front. Tonga - losing to Georgia early will be a disappointing result, Namibia suffer the backlash ten days later. Namibia - will battle gamely but outclassed by the other teams here.
Group D
Ireland - monster all opposition in the pool including France in the final pool game. France - look shaky against Italy and Romania but do enough to win through. Romania - frighten France, hold on against Canada for a close win and then upset the Italians. Italy - beat Canada, but suffer a shock loss to Romania. Canada - run Italy and Romania close, but come away disappointed.
So QF1 (winner B vs RU A) would be South Africa vs **Australia **- hmm I think SA will have it, Aus may be a bit beaten up from the group matches
QF2 (winner C vs RU D) **New Zealand **vs **France **- obviously New Zealand
QF3 (winner D vs RU C) Ireland vs Argentina - could be a good one, depends if Argentina turn up and keep their cool but probably Ireland
QF4 (winner A vs RU B) England vs Scotland - England easy
Semi Final one - **South Africa **vs **New Zealand **- probably the All Blacks, barring the AB choke factor
Semi Final two - England vs **Ireland ** going to be a brutal game , my heart says England, but Ireland will want it more and I think England will have progressed as far as they can.
Final SA or AB vs Ireland - the trophy heads to the southern hemisphere
While the IRB isn’t as transparently venal as many other international sporting bodies, I’m sure a sufficiently attractive bid could get the US Rugby World Cup hosting rights sometime in the future. After all Japan is hosting the next tournament, and they’re pretty much at the same level as the US at the moment.
Sound work, but the scenario depends on the result of the Eng v Aus pool game.
Reverse that and it plays out quite differently until the final when ABs win vs anybody.
For the wild card there’s also the truism that France will play out of their skins in one (and only one) of the finals and you simply hope that your own mob is playing some other venue when it happens.
Yeah the possibility of facing in France in the quarters brings back awful memories of 1999 and 2007. Sorry Ireland, but I’m hoping France beat you in pool play.
Only 9 matches are going to be broadcast on network TV or basic cable. NBC is going to show one semi-final match, and the final. In addition to those two games, cable offering Universal Sports will show the opening game of the tournament, all four USA pool matches, the other semi-final, and the third-place game.
All other games are via Pay-Per-View, either through your cable network or online. I don’t know what the cable networks are charging, but online the pool games cost $28 each!!! You can get all 48 games for $200, but i reckon even that’s pretty fucking steep. I don’t think i can watch enough games to justify the $200, and much as i love the Wallabies, i don’t really want to pay $28 per game to watch them on my computer.
Wow that’s an optimistic pricing plan. Or is the streaming service owned by a cable company wanting to steer business from the internet into their cable branch? That stream better be crystal clear for that price as well.
Frankly I think England were lucky to come away with five points. The penalty which missed touch and was returned for a (dodgy-looking) try when the score was 18-11 broke Fiji.
Here are my guesses for today’s games:
Tonga v Georgia will be a brutal slug-fest between two fairly limited sides. Georgia to pull off a bit of an upset thanks to superior goalkicking.
South Africa v Japan Japan will be overrun.
Ireland v Canada Canada may surprise with a good first half, but Ireland are too good overall to lose this one.
France v Italy France will get an unconvincing win over an unimpressive Italy.