And that’s the key, right there. Dammit! {Phuching free agency!}
He’s obligated this year but I believe unrestricted for 2016. I believe the optional 5th year is for 1st rounders and he was chosen in the 3rd. Personally, I think $25m is right on the cusp of, “Dude, two SBs in three years. He’s earned it” and “Oh wow, that’s a shit ton of money.” Keep playing like he has been could end up being worth it though.
One factor in his favor is his age. Wilson may not be as good a quarterback as Tom Brady or Peyton Manning - but which of the three would you want to sign to a five year contract starting in 2016?
I find Russell Wilson and his contract situation to be a fascinating predicament to watch.
On one side, I like Russell Wilson, I think he’s a better than average QB, he’s got great poise, and his successes have shown that efficiency is a very desirable quality in a QB. The Seahawks don’t rely on him to win them games (Wilson has had a whopping 5 games of 300 yards+ passing in his entire career. Andrew Luck had 10 just last year), and having an amazing defense and a solid running game has made his job so much easier.
On the other side, he’s not, to me, a game changer or a QB you can win because of, rather than with. While his efficiency and ability to run can help the team win, I don’t see him as a QB you build a team around.
So, the question becomes, what is an efficient, better than average QB worth in the NFL? After watching teams make huge payouts to mediocre QB’s like Cutler, Dalton, and Kaepernick, everyone seems to think that QB’s are so important that you pay them no matter how over-inflated their salary is. I think Seattle might just be the team that is smart enough to avoid doing that.
Wilson has the ability to develop into a top tier QB, but he’s not been asked to do so, and he’s not there yet. It will be fun to see if Seattle pays him like he is.
I don’t agree with the second half of that statement.
Let me stress for the record that I have no issue whatsoever with Russell Wilson trying to get every dollar he can manage. But not every team or playing situation is the same, and unless Wilson literally cares only about maximizing financial return, it is not true that he has “little incentive to settle for less.”
Remember, while Seattle has benefited tremendously from having Wilson on their roster at a bargain price, Wilson has benefited tremendously from being on the Seahawks in particular. He’s benefited from good coaching, from an offense that has played toward his strengths and used a punishing running game to keep the pressure off of him literally and figuratively. He’s also benefited from playing on the same side as a defense that limits how much he needs to accomplish to win, and that is the main reason he’s won a Super Bowl and been to two.
These are things that (I assume) have some amount of value to Wilson going forward. Yeah, somebody will give him $25M… but what if it’s the Raiders? Or the Redskins? Their checks will clear as well as anyone else’s, but they won’t be able to surround him with half the talent Seattle has so far - especially not with their cap crippled on account of paying their new QB. On a team with an average or bad defense, Wilson will win a lot less frequently; the annual Super Bowl contention he’s enjoyed thus far in his career will dry up overnight. And, if he spends the next five years at .500, his next contract will be a lot smaller.
Both the Seahawks and Russell Wilson are better off with one another than apart. It is to Seattle’s overall advantage to pay Wilson more than they want to, but it’s also to Wilson’s advantage to accept less than he wants. I expect both parties will ultimately realize this and Wilson will sign a contract that’s in the $18M/year range.
They have him for another year at bottom basement prices. They can franchise him for another three years and if he gets hurt drop him like a hot potato. It’s in his best interests to sign a deal with a bunch of upfront money because a deal next year will never “make up” the money lost this year.
I think we are only hearing so much about this because it’s summer.
Franchising him is worse for the cap than signing him to a long-term megadeal - the whole salary gets charged to that year’s cap. For 2015, the franchise QB is $18.5M. It’s gone up by ~1.5-2M the last couple of years, so let’s say it’s in the neighborhood of $20M for 2016… that whole amount goes against the cap in that year instead of being prorated over a long-term contract, and the team is stuck in the same bind that they’re trying to avoid in the negotiations. It gets worse if the try to do it for 2 years, because the salary goes up by 20%, so they’re looking at ~$24M in 2017. The franchise tag isn’t a solution for either side.