What's wrong with Russell Wilson?

Background: I have not followed the NFL since I moved to Europe several years ago. I was a casual fan when I lived in Seattle, and I watched the Seahawks semi-regularly. But when I came to Europe, I found that American football has almost no media presence here, and I stopped paying attention. (There are occasional games on some of the sport-oriented channels, often time-delayed, but they typically air with commentary in German and my language skills aren’t good enough to follow.)

When I was in Seattle, Russell Wilson was the Seahawks quarterback. He was intermittently frustrating in his over-reliance on improvisatory scrambling, but he was definitely better than the several QBs who preceded him, and he was occasionally very good indeed, as his Superbowl seasons attest.

But then, as noted, I left the U.S. and my awareness fell to near zero. I did see the headlines when he went to Denver a couple of years ago, and I thought that was interesting, but didn’t much look into it at the time. I guess I just assumed it was a combo of the Broncos struggling to figure out the QB position after Manning and a financial decision by Seattle. I remember some of my friends back home being upset, but due to distance and time I didn’t think a lot about it.

Now I see the headlines that the Broncos have benched Wilson. That piqued my curiosity, so I did some more reading, and I see that Wilson has not measured up to expectations in Denver.

My question is, why? He’s underperforming, but for what reason, or reasons?

I skimmed through a bunch of pundit-type articles, both professional and amateur, and I don’t see any consistent agreement on the cause for Wilson’s struggles. There is a fair amount of statistical information about his performance, which was, apparently, less than satisfactory more or less right away, a situation which contributed to the replacement of the head coach. But there doesn’t seem to be any consensus on why he’s floundering.

The professional pundits seem to be split between (a) suggesting that accumulating injuries are catching up with him and (b) arguing that there’s a cultural mismatch on the team which undermines his effectiveness. The fan blogs have some of this, but also throw in a variety of personal criticisms, like Wilson doesn’t care about the Broncos and isn’t putting in the effort because he’s getting paid no matter what, or that he’s distracted by off-field celebrity stuff and his head isn’t in the game, the usual kind of sniping you get from the bleachers. And there are even some writers who contend that Wilson isn’t actually bad at all and the perception of his underperformance is not backed up by the numbers. There seems to be general agreement that the team around Wilson isn’t very good, but the unanimity ends there.

So, what’s the deal? Is he as bad as his benching would suggest, or is he getting an unfair share of the blame for a poor team? Are the Broncos giving up on him as an athlete because they believe his problems, whatever they might be, are unfixable, or are they just looking for an excuse to get out from under as much of his contract as they can?

And, my core question — to whatever extent he really is struggling, why is he having trouble?

I’m not really an expert, but here are my impressions:

As a young QB, he was able to scramble much better than he can now. He’s pretty short for a QB, so he basically has to move around to get the ball past the D-line, and even the O-line, but speed definitely wanes with age. I remember one play where he threw the ball to a receiver and was fast enough to get in front of the receiver and do some blocking. I doubt he’s that fast anymore.

During his peak years at Seattle, he had an amazing set of receivers, plus Marshawn Lynch, who seemed to be able to gain a few yards on demand. Wilson would have had two rings if he had just handed the ball to Lynch at the end of that Super Bowl game against the Patriots.

The years he was at Seattle, they had an amazing defense as well, which can make a QB look good. Richard Sherman was a shut-down corner. I don’t understand NFL D that well, but I’m sure the rest of the team was amazing, too.

So, my summary would be: A scrambling QB will have a limited life anyway, plus he was surrounded by an amazing team on O and an elite D during his years at Seattle.

Wasn’t his last season or two at Seattle pretty disappointing, too?

He’s getting old. Really, not much else is needed. He’s slower, has accumulated injuries, and can’t rely on his legs anymore, making him a pocket quarterback which was never his strength.

I don’t follow the Broncos or Wilson that closely. Yes he’s getting old. He’s also having to adjust to new head coach Sean Payton’s system. Earlier this season the Broncos were performing poorly, so poorly in fact that I thought Payton might be the first head coach fired this season. But he survived and the Broncos have been playing better.

He’s done considerably better this season than last season, though that probably isn’t enough to save his job given his high salary.

As noted he’s older but should still be able to contribute at a decent level. But a lot of that seems to be on him. The scuttlebutt is that last season he insisted on being more of a pocket passer responsible for dissecting defenses on the fly and new head coach Nathaniel Hackett acceded to those wishes (he had a TON of shotgun snaps and empty sets). That is, of course, in opposition to his strengths as a QB.

This season, Sean Payton seems to have done better scheming around the QB with more traditional dropbacks (and scrambles out of those) and in developing the skills players around him. But he’s still a 36 year old QB whose strength lies in improvising once a play breaks down. That’s not a great combination.

Nothing to add about why he’s bad, but just wanted to point out that a lot of the criticism and his benching is in large part due to his massive 35 million + contract. He’s still starting NFL quarterback level, but he doesn’t play up to that contract anymore. Why the benching? Apparently there’s some sort of injury clause where if he were to get hurt in the next few games the team would owe him tens of millions of dollars guaranteed. Rumour is the Bronco’s want to move on next year, and don’t want to risk that much money on two meaningless games.

Nitpick. Wilson is 35. Just. He turned 35 on 29 November.

Speaking of Wilson’s age, I’m reminded of another scrambling, improvising QB who had similar skills who played into his late 30s: Fran Tarkenton. He was 36 when he led his team (Vikings) to his 4th Super Bowl. He retired at 38.

A little NFL trivia: Tarkenton and the Vikings were the first to lose 4 Super Bowls. Their last appearance was in Super Bowl XI at the end of the 1976 season. The Vikings haven’t been back to the Super Bowl ever since. The Vikings and the Buffalo Billlls (:slightly_smiling_face:) are the only 0-4 Super Bowl teams.

He’s guaranteed tens of millions either way but Denver can save ~$18M off their cap if they cut him at the right time. That extra money is guaranteed if he’s injured before the season ends. The actual money hurts, of course, but their main priority is how the contract affects the team’s salary cap.

It’s pretty much not a rumor Denver wants to move on. He’d be much too expensive unless he were a top tier QB playing at or near the height of his powers. Even after cutting him post June-1, they’ll still be dealing with his cap cost for the next two seasons (cutting him before that puts the entire dead cap into next season alone), but at least they won’t be tossing even more money at him after that. Basically, even in the best case money-wise, they’ll be dealing with his contract until the 2026 season.

I believe that Wilson is a quarterback with some real strengths and weaknesses. He’s elusive and can scramble. Much of that comes from his time in baseball. It’s not talked about often, but he was a professional baseball player before the NFL. He was drafted by the Colorado Rockies and played as a second baseman for the Tri-City Dust Devils, a minor league team in Eastern Washington. He left baseball to go into the NFL draft, and became the QB in Seattle.

He is great at throwing the deep ball and great at improvisation. Many times when a play broke down he’d just move around, delay, keep his eyes downfield and find a guy. It was like watching a wizard.

He can hold the ball too long, and that was less of a problem when he was better at avoiding tacklers. As he got older he was sacked more. He’s also not the greatest pocket passer. He’s not trash but he’s not elite. He really excelled when Seattle had a strong running game, and they could run plays where he had the option of handing the ball to the RB, letting a guy get open downfield, or keeping it to scramble. Often defenses had to devote a guy to watching him which gave the defense less freedom to run people around.

Wilson has always been poor at checking down or quick intermediate throws. Seattle planned around that. Wilson thought they were holding him back and lobbied for them to just let him do everything. Eventually they tried it his way one season, and let him air it out more and all over the field. It worked for a bit but then fell apart. When he went to Denver, he was given free rein to basically play the way he wanted to and it was a disaster. They brought in a new head coach with a firmer hand, and the team did a lot better.

Mentally, his biggest strength is that he believes he can do anything. It’s also his biggest weakness. There’s a fine line between confidence and hubris, and he crosses that at times.

I don’t follow football much, but when it was announced that this guy was moving to Denver, one of the local radio stations rebranded themselves to “RUSS FM” for a week or two, and filled the talk time with gushing editorials. Clearly the expectations were that this was going to be a Very Big Deal for the Broncos.

Same station doesn’t say much about it these days.

My WAG, as a non-Seahawks/Broncos fan:

Age caught up with him. Just like Donovan McNabb, he’s now running and juking at half-speed. So part of his game is gone.

When he was at Seattle, he was being buoyed up by one of the best defenses in the league; now he hasn’t really got that support anymore.

He got rich and also has a Super Bowl ring; two things that can dampen someone’s drive or motivation somewhat.

I agree. IMHO we (football fans in general) saw how Tom Brady and Drew Brees performed well at 40 plus years of age, and maybe started to get the idea that this is now the new norm. I think those two were statistical anomalies, and a QB falling off the cliff by their mid to late 30s is still to be expected.

Yeah, neither one of those were much of a running threat, so they could last a little longer while they slowed down. Wilson needs his legs to get out from behind the O-line.

For multiple reasons. Denver’s offensive line is in the league basement for protecting the quarterback.

IMHO this, plus “just okay” results this season are the reasons he’s been benched. Just the business-end of football guiding decisions about the future of the team, and the relatively new owners desire to move the team in a different direction. Had the Broncos made the playoffs and Wilson’s performance better than average this season, the story would be differently. But, yeah, the team is moving on. My son speculated he’ll go next to a team in desperate need of a veteran QB, perhaps even Seattle.

This last season showed he’s still got some gas in the tank. He’s 35, not 45.

But he’s definitely not a traditional pocket passer, no matter what he believes about his own abilities. And he’s also not the kind of QB you should be paying $40-$50M a year for the next several years.

Heck, it happened to Derek Carr last season with the Raiders. He even waived his no trade clause. In his case, he had a pretty good, though not spectacular, season with the Saints and has a reasonable shot at making the playoffs in a weak NFC South.

I’m not sure Wilson will have even that sort of season wherever he lands unless he does some real soul searching

Your first and last points are spot on.

The middle point is not really true. Yes, when he won a Super Bowl and almost won a second one, he had a historically good defense. But once the Legion of Boom started to fall apart the Seahawks were still making the postseason and were still contenders, and a couple of years it was through the offense which Russell was carrying.

As an example, in 2017, after Marshawn Lynch was gone and the team was struggling to find their next lead running back, the team had 4 total rushing TDs, and Russell had 3 of them. It was the first year the team missed the playoffs while Wilson was the QB, and they just missed it with a 9-7 record. Wilson was still playing at an elite level and had the most passing TDs of any QB that season, and he was also clutch, with 18 4th quarter TDs, breaking the NFL record previously set by Eli Manning. When the team needed him most he dragged them with him.

After that year, the LOB started to break up, first with Kam Chancellor having to retire after being badly injured, then the others trickled away. Wilson still played at a pretty high level after that. It was around 2020 that things started to go downhill with the “Let Russ Cook” stuff.

They indeed let him try to play as more of a traditional passer and the season started out 6-1, but then he just turned to garbage, throwing interceptions, missing receivers, etc. It was a failed experiment.

2021 was a mess because Wilson had that horrible hand injury and missed games for the first time, and he clearly took to the field again before he was fully recovered. Because as I said earlier, he thinks he can do everything, and he can’t. He’s human. And then after that season he’s traded to the Broncos.

I wonder how much the coaching plays a role in this. Did the coaches in Seattle just have a better understanding of Wilson’s strengths, and how best to use them, than those in Denver?

Wouldn’t that be a kick in the head.

I think that’s part of it but not all of it. Because the last couple of years in Seattle he wasn’t that great either. I think he also declined independent of how he was coached.

But I do think coaching is part of it, because last year when Wilson was pretty much allowed to do what he wanted and they had a rookie head coach in Nathaniel Hackett, they finished 5-12. Getting Sean Payton, a coach who knows more about what he’s doing, they are currently 8-8, in 2nd place in their division, and until recently had a chance of making the playoffs. And Wilson himself looks better, it’s not just the team around him playing better.