A question from here that caught my eye:
The answer basically says there’s no real way to tell until we see what they’ve done when contract time rolls around and what their demands are (though so far, both could probably ask for half the West Coast between them and they’d probably get it). But does anyone have any guesses? Are there any past comparisons to make to figure out an answer, especially for the second question (King’s answer made it sound like “no,” but perhaps there is one)?
Wilson’s going to get a gigantic pile of money and Kaepernick’s going to do fine for himself. Ordinarily what you’d expect is that they’ll each sign extensions at some point before their contracts actually expire, and that they’ll sign for a significant fraction but not as much as they’d command in the open market.
It’s true that there’s no way to predict in the sense that either could suffer a catastrophic injury or have a terrible season next year, but there’s really no difference there between theirs and any other impending free agents’ situation. The Seahawks and 49ers know that there are plenty of teams out there who would love to throw fat stacks of cash at these guys, and they’ll have to pay up to keep them around.
Matt Ryan just signed a 5 year, $104 million extension. Matt Stafford got 3 years / $53 million. Cutler signed for 7 years, amount not yet known but apparently for more per year than Stafford. Brees got 5 years and $100 million the season before last. You have to figure Russell Wilson’s going to look at those contracts and argue he’s worth that and then some.
The big difference was what they had to pay out front. First rounders get giant signing bonuses and guaranteed money. The teams certainly did save money by striking gold in the lower rounds. At least for a couple years.
Definitely; they’ve had extra space these last couple years because they didn’t have that big Sam Bradford cap hit, but however they get to that point (expensive quarterbacks and overperforming defensive players and lineman, usually), really good teams always end up having to deal with their players being individually worth more in the open market than they can afford to pay them. I don’t think the fact that Wilson and Kaepernick had smaller rookie deals is going to affect their next contract by any appreciable amount, so really you’re just looking at the standard problem successful teams face when their young talent grows into stardom.
Nothing official-ish, but Cutler’s deal is looking like a clone of Stafford & Romo’s deals. It’s a 7 year deal with two fake years at the end. Effectively i’ll be 5-years, $85M give or take with an average of around $18M/year. Cheaper than Ryan, Rodgers and Brees, right in line with the next tier of guys where you can probably expect Wilson to land when he comes up and maybe a little more than Kaep unless he cleans up a little.
I don’t think Kaepernick is long for the contract level that Wilson is. Wilson is directly a big part of the sucess of the Seahawks, Kaep is the face of the 49ers, but thier success is much less dependent on the QB and he is more easily replaced. He has benefitted more from the talent and coaching around him and that will show up when they have to pay him. Especially, if it comes down to him v. Frank Gore or Vernon Davis or Navarro Bowman or Patrick Willis or paying that O-line.
Kap will be eligible for an extension a year earlier than Wilson, so that will affect who gets more. I suspect their respective raises will be roughly equivilent. Neither the 49ers or Seahawks will have it easy when trying to bring in free agents, so they’d better keep hitting in the draft.