For the purposes of discussion, let’s assume a few things:
[ol]
[li]Donald Trump will be the Republican Presidential Candidate in the 2020 election,[/li][li]Russia continues to engage in activities intended to take advantage of various schisms in American society (Dem v. Rep, black v white, etc.). In addition, they continue efforts to hack voter registration databases, political campaign e-mail systems, and so on, and,[/li][li]The US is not able to/does not fully counter these measures.[/li][/ol]
What do you think Russia’s play is in 2020? Do they continue to act in such a way as to attempt to tilt the scale in Trump’s favor? Or, do they throw in on the Democratic side this time, knowing that a Dem win (especially if it’s not overwhelming) will cause Trump and some others on the right to contest elections, scream about elections being rigged, and thereby worsen divisions in America and further “destabilize” the country?
I could honestly see a case for either scenario, or maybe even that they play both sides, simply to foment chaos.
Are there any indications which way they might go?
It’s still more useful for Moscow to have Trump in power than a Democrat, for now, so I’d expect them to support Trump again. But I would expect Russia’s interference to be a lot subtler this time. But - as you mentioned, maximum chaos is also a benefit, so they might deliberately play both sides to ensure a narrow outcome. If Trump grew a huge lead, they might try to weaken Trump back down to single digits.
If they were engaging in “activities intended to take advantage of various schisms in American society (Dem v. Rep, black v white, etc.)”, then showing support for both sides would seem to accomplish their goal best. For example, riling up both blacks and whites, rather than just one or the other.
It has to be fun for Russia to exploit the divisions within a democracy. Where Russia becomes dangerous is when they attack the legitimacy of a democracy.
It would actually be advantageous for China to meddle seeing as Democrats really don’t bother the Chinese much. Without a doubt, China is much more powerful than Moscow. It isn’t up for debate. Russia today is very much like the latter years of the Soviet Republican; a projection force, that’s all.
There will come a point when the Russian people will wake up from their deep sleep and realize their politicians are hacks and thieves. I look forward to watching someone shove a broomstick up Putin’s backside. Then again, he could barely keep his marriage to his former wife, so he may enjoy being sodomized forcefully.