Putin is winning the hearts and minds of sixty percent of the pro-Russia residents’ of Crimea with his thus far peaceful ‘violation’ of Ukraine’s territorial rights. But he does not appear to be winning much of anything else. It was not likely that Russia would lose its lease for the Naval Base on the Black Sea, had Putin kept his troops on those bases.
The restraint shown by those Russian troops is critical. But if some hot-headed Tatar in Crimea manages to attack some Russian troops in Crimea and hostilities start to escalate then Putin’s gamble becomes a disaster and a huge error for him.
I see Putin gambling that Russian troops can sit it out for some time without shooting, killing anybody or blowing anything up in Crimea and then he can withdraw with some sort of enhanced bargaining position for having shown military power but combining it with restraint.
It is a very dangerous gamble and if the weak struggling Russian economy is already taking a hit before an escalation t actual warfare, then it should be seen that Putin has made a gross political and economic error to have made the ‘chess moves’ he has made thus far.
Because essentially it was rioters in Kiev that put an end to the gas deal that was in effect. I think Putin would be justified to shut off the gas to Ukraine until its $4 bn bill has been paid and then charge Ukraine the market price for gas that the EU pays. But knowing if he does that he is also harming the pro-Russians in Ukraine. Perhaps he fears that violence will spread to the pro-Russian parts of Ukraine if that gas supply is shut off.
The west should keep pointing out how stupid the rioters in Kiev were to force rejection of the low price that Putin was willing to sell gas to Ukraine. Apparently if Ukraine wanted to be included in the EU they no longer get the discount.
And now the US and EU and others are expected to pay the difference if not for all these stupid rioters are going to cost the west.
What is absurd is anyone declaring that one side is ‘winning’ … stupidity takes a lot of luck for stupidity to win.
We should not forget how stupid the the rioting and protesting Ukrainians were in how they started this.
You better by one to find out if I was being sarcastic or not.
Why not take the jokes to the pit where they belong. You are contributing nothing to the discussion.
See my previous post if you want to see how ‘contributing to the discussion’ is done.
John Mace has no intelligible response to my arguments so he goes in Rush Limbaugh style has mastered down the road of sarcasm. And now he pouts because I responded in the only meaningful way to respond to sarcasm. I treat it as if his words actually mean something.
You should all know that I don’t think much of Mace’s words mean anything.
Check the batteries in your meters or else buy a new one.
I am not. If anything I think he/they are keeping a close watch of what’s happening in the Donets Basin/Donetsk. If anything, they’d go there next IMO.
I was not envisioning that we would occupy or even invade Russia, just drive them out of Ukraine and reduce their capacity to wage war. I am not an expert, but everything I have read indicates that there has been a significant degradation of Russia’s equipment and training since the fall of the Soviet Union. While readily admitting that I am no expert, I stand by my assertion that the west could liberate Ukraine if it came to that, but all bets are off when occupying anything.
As to the nuclear weapons, they are the great equalizer, and any Nato force superiority is moot there. But what’s your point? That a war here carries unthinkable potential for death and destruction? See my post where I argue that as the exact reason we won’t get militarily involved in Ukraine.
Not to your blog, no. But I’ll let the other posters judge my contributions to this thread that have nothing to do with your biased scrolls.
Surprised. You are indeed capable of making a joke after all.
John has long been one of the best/most knowledgeable posters on this board – I’ve been reading him with interest for close to 12 years. We don’t always agree, but his knowledge is unquestionable. You, OTOH, are a new arrival with a one note agenda.
Works the other way around as well. And the numbers are overwhelmingly against you.
Please read the link on Russia’s current military strenght in my post #324. They’ve been working very hard at upgrading/rebuilding/modernizing their armed forces – and its starting to pay off.
Please link to it – but if you said that, it would directly contradict the first part of this post of yours.
Their strength pales in comparison to ours alone, plus they are using Russian equipment and have Russian levels of training. This has not worked out well in the various wars fought between Western-style and Soviet-style militaries. Short version: They would get crushed in short order. Not that it wouldn’t be the most costly war for the West since WWII, so it’s certainly not something to take lightly. But Western militaries can slice through non-Western militaries like a hot knife through butter.
Which is why them using nukes is unlikely unless a) They figure Russia is doomed anyway, or b) Whoever is making the decision thinks that it’s all about them and they’d rather see Russia burn than simply lose a war in humiliating fashion. There’s only one guy in Russia who I think is that crazy, and that’s Zhironovsky, who is nowhere near the levers of power.
A Western war against Russia would be more on the order of the Crimean war, or at worst the Kaiser’s war, not Hitler’s war of extermination. In both the former two wars, Russia did not act suicidal. They gave up as soon as it benefitted them to do so. Likewise, if we ever had to defend the Baltic republics or Poland, hopefully the war would end as soon as Russia realized they could not stand up to NATO forces.
None of this should be construed to mean that I believe war is a good idea, and we should not go to war over the Ukraine, Georgia, or even Kazakhstan. But we do have NATO allies among the ex-Soviet republics, and we will defend those allies with the full might of NATO. That would not be a war of our choosing, so there’s no point in complaining about it. It’s all in Russia’s hands what happens there.
If the ‘violation of territorial integrity’ remains peaceful and a withdrawal to bases is negotiated with UN Peacekeepers protecting order then there is no reason Russia should be permanently out of the G8. That is a dangerous and hypocritical line to draw right now.
At least two members of the G8 aggressively violated territorial integrity in the past and hundreds of thousands died as a result.
Assuming Putin cares about G8 membership the double standard you propose at this point recklessly promotes war to be more likely as the means to reverse the actions taken by Putin thus far.
And a further note that has been discussed, Russia was found by the EU to be justified to ‘defend’ its soldiers and South Ossetia residents when they were ruthlessly attacked by Georgia to start that skimish.
Un-fuckin’ believable! You just had your asses handed to you – and your allies – by two Third World backwater tribal nations and now you are boasting that you can crush (crush!) the second mightiest military in the world by basically snapping your fingers…and blinking three times real hard, I guess.
And with a war-worn military and an economy in slow recovery due in large part to the two reckless wars you were/are involved in. Perfect timing to take on the Russian Bear.
Mace’s knowledge may be just fine. Its his misuse and disregard for knowable facts in his arguments that surely lacks a high standard.
And your relationship with facts is questionable right here.
“You, OTOH, are a new arrival with a one note agenda.”
What is the subject of this thread? Is this the one note agenda you speak of?
How can you make such a claim? It bears no relationship to the facts.
I understand that, Alessan – I simply disagree with the “simplicity” of doing so. It’d be a HUGE conflict with no guarantees whatsoever of it not turning into a third WW.
I don’t think Putin (and Russia) is someone you trifle with.
In that regard what is ‘inept’ about Kerry’s statement or handling of the situation in Ukraine thus far?
It is aldiboronti’s comment that is inept. Kerry is not saying his own country should “behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext”. Kerry has not defended our behavior when we behaved, in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext".
Can you argue with a ‘straight face’ that Kerry said what aldiboronti thinks he said?
I agree - but I don’t think Putin should trifle with the U.S., either. The U.S. may do a lot of damage to itself, but it does much more damage to the countries it fights. I mean, the U.S. may not have won in Iraq, but neither did the Iraqis.
Well, that’s the real-world problem. It’s pretty obvious that Russia would be fighting at a large disadvantage from the beginning. They’d be going up against the most technologically advanced and wealthy group of armies in history (I’m assuming all of NATO, not just the U.S.), in a region that neither really occupies. If we ran a thousand simulations of a conflict for the Ukraine, Russia would probably come out the loser in the vast majority of them.
Unfortunately, any sim is a closed little world, and reflects the real world poorly. In the real world, your plan rarely survives first contact with the enemy, you have no guarantees that the fighting stays in the Ukraine, and all bets are off as to what the end result will be. That’s where I think Putin has been playing this frighteningly well. He has been threatening war, but doesn’t really intend (or want) to fight any more than Europe or the U.S. does. Nobody really wins that situation, even if it does stay limited to the Ukraine. Neither side wants to pay to rebuild it after They’ve “won” a war between these two groups there.
Putin may be rewarded for his boldness, and that is a sobering thought, as diplomacy has unintended consequences as well. The trick in this situation will be keeping the safety on, for both sides. If Putin actually engages the Ukrainian military, I won’t be sleeping well.
Ugh, it’s like we’ve been transported back to the 1800’s and a new “Great Game” is being run. Only this time, there’s nukes.