Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Might that not be considered an attack on Germany, which if I recall correctly is a NATO member? Looks like Czar Dobby is TRYING to escalate to tackling NATO.

In Putins defence (gag), his army is so fucked up, I doubt they have much ability to aim accurately.

That is a fair point.

It turns out not to be quite as dramatic as hitting the German embassy. They hit a high-rise building that contained a visa consulate associated with the German embassy. It’s not clear if the consulate was damaged, but it’s been unoccupied since the start of the war.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/strikes-hit-building-that-houses-german-consulate-kyiv-germany-says-2022-10-10/

Its value has been degraded by the number of times Susan Collins has falsely claimed to be concerned by some opinion given or action taken by a fellow Republican.

Flattery and power can be much more intoxicating the alcohol.

Moderating:

No political jabs in breaking news threads!

Yep. If Russia is going to indiscriminately shell Kyiv, they run the risk of hitting one or more embassies or consulates, which equates to an attack on that country – since both are considered territory of the country in question.

I suspect the diplomatic channels have been lighting up over the last few hours with messages saying exactly that, in no uncertain terms.

The discussion of a renewed northern offensive aimed at Kyiv needs to consider a few things. The Ukrainians pushed the full mobilization button at the beginning of the invasion. While that overwhelmed their training and logistics capacities early in the war, at this point they have more trained light infantry than they know what to do with. See Perun’s video about Ukrainian mobilisation: "All manpower, no metal" - Ukrainian mobilisation, equipment shortages, and training - YouTube

Now, while light infantry suck for offensive operations in modern warfare, one thing you can do with light infantry is construct a lot of defensive position in key strategic areas, such as potential attack vectors towards your capital. Another thing you can do very effectively with light infantry is defend from those positions. With the massive numbers of ATGMs Ukraine has, light infantry with some artillery support should be able to provide a very substantial defense without having to commit a lot of armoured reserves. Since Russia at this point is using conscripts with two weeks of training driving tanks that have been in deep storage since the 80’s, I’m not at all convinced that a renewed Russian offensive in the north would make it past the border let alone artillery range of Kyiv.

I’m now imagining Poland’s ambassador to Ukraine trying desperately to find someone to provide him with back-dated title to one of the damaged office buildings so they can push the Article 5 button.
Imgur

The idea that an embassy is territory of the country whose embassy it is is a common but mistaken notion. Embassies have certain immunities from the law of the hosting country, but only because they are the residence of the Ambassador. It’s an extension of the immunities the Ambassador gets. So Russia attacking the embassy of a NATO country will not activate Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.

But Tornado is just an evolution of the Smerch, which has a range of 200 km and they have plenty of those. Compared with the longest ranged HIMARS rocket of about 150 km (depending on which particular rocket has been sent, it’s not entirely clear).
They also have plenty of GLOSNOSS guided arty rounds.

And Ukrainian and NATO PR department releases not withstanding the most common and effective Ukr Arty has been the old 122mm field piece, spotted by tactical drones (and NATO satellites).

Well, for Putin it’s that or the Ram of Pride.

But they are running out of Himars ammunition .

It’s easy for us to be overconfident and over-snarky. We love to say that the Russians are incompetent ,that they’ll never be able to open a new front from Belarus, that their generals are drunk, etc.

But Russia is not giving up.
Putin still has a quarter million soldiers and tens of thousands of tanks and artillery. He will happily fight until they are all dead and the vehicles are destroyed. That could take another year or two of fighting, at an enormous cost to Ukrainian civilians, and depletion of ammunition for their army.
Russia may not win the war, but Ukraine could still lose.

do not reply to off topic politics (WE?)

Also–there are elections in America 3 weeks from now, and it is quite likely that the Republicans will win control of both houses of Congress. This means they will cancel everything that Biden does . So American supplies to Ukraine may end, and the Ukrainians will lose their country.

(apologies if this last paragraph is off-topic.)

Air Defense is a priority. Help is coming.

Cite Ukraine to demand step-change in western aid after Russian missile blitz | Ukraine | The Guardian

I suspect that was more by accident than design. Still bad, of course.

meanwhile in other news outlets…

Sorry! I forgot. :flushed:

Modnote: Keep politics out of the Breaking News thread.

Russia begins a counter-offensive of its own in the direction of Lyman in the last 12 hours.

Lyman Counteroffensive | Russia Counterattacks Ukrainian Positions [Ukraine War Map Analysis] - YouTube

Looks like it’s got some resources behind it.