Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

It has started. Artillery attacks across the border on – so far – military installations.
USA Today

A military analyst on CNN said they are likely probing for the weakest spots before moving in the main forces and that there will be a lot of urban fighting, the kind nobody wants to be involved in.

The USA could do the same with Mexico, someone is suggesting:

About 170 years too late.

Multi-pronged attack. Cruise missile and air strikes on targets.
Ukrainian military claims shooting down some aircraft.
Denizens of Kyiv fleeing, many miles long traffic jams.

Depending on the objectives, I suspect this phase will last two to three week.
How do you say Operation Ukrainian Freedom in Russian?

Ukraine claims it has shot down numerous Russian aircraft and destroyed a number of tanks.

Difficult to see how Russia plans to control a country which is over 600,000 sq km in size, and with a population of 40m people, most of whom do not want them there.

Wouldn’t be the first time…

Good god. I like to think that would be much much much more difficult today.

Ukrainian line aren’t holding at all in the Southern front. Russians have reached the Dniper.

If wishes were horses.

Never give up your nukes folks.
And never ever ever believe Superpower “guarantees”.

Now they are saying that Ukrainian sank two Russian cargo ships in the Black Sea.

The Russians seem to have landed a large group of heliborne troops next to Kiyv…and I thought the 101st Airbourne Iraq assulat in 1991 was bold.

In other news, in what is absolutely a co-incidence, some Russians opposition figures have been arrested.

We (the West) may not be able to avoid an actual war. From what I’ve read and heard the last couple of days, sanctions will have no effect.

This is sickening.

My understand is Russia media is reporting this as a defensive move against the Ukrainian military.

You know, that big bad hostile Ukrainian military.

This is just horrific. We never get any smarter as a whole, do we?

They don’t have to control the entire country. They can seize the main roads, electrical grid, transport, and communications infrastructure. After a few weeks, the rural folks cut off from those amenities will beg to be controlled so that they can eat, drink, bathe, work. And if they don’t? Russia’s position will be “who cares”.

I’m in the camp who doesn’t expect Russia will have all that much difficulty dominating Ukraine. Yes, Ukraine’s military and popular resolve is stronger than people appreciate. The intensity of the initial fight will be severe, and Russia will be surprised to experience heavy losses. But Ukraine will burn itself out rapidly. It will be isolated by land, air, and sea. There will be no resupply or reinforcement from anywhere. Russia will gain the upper hand, and she has long experience occupying and controlling European countries.

There is some question about an insurgency… no doubt there will be some activity there, but will it be the “white Taliban” as some commentators have remarked? I don’t think so. Ukrainians hate Russia more than many people appreciate, but they’re not animated by an ideology that glorifies suicide attacks. They’re a well-educated European country with a high standard of living that will soon be keenly missed. They’ve lived under Russian rule before, and I’m sure that in a few weeks or months, most of the population will eventually calculate that it’s better to surrender and live to fight another day.

Disclaimer: predictions are risky, especially about the future. I’m not super confident about any analysis at this point.

I don’t know that it’s necessarily true; they could simply be choosing not to fight then and there. It would be stupid for the Ukrainians to try and hold the line everywhere against a numerically superior Russian attack- they’re far better off engaging in mobile warfare and doing things like counterattacks against undefended flanks, etc…

Fully expecting this to end in a puppet government rather than a full on annexation.

In flat and (outside urban areas) sparsely populated terrain?

As we ourselves discovered, when you’ve got one buffoon making the decisions, things go down the shitter really fast.

Flat, open and not built up terrain is tailor-made for armored/mobile warfare, not dogged attrition-style defense.

Even in WWII, most of the warfare in Ukraine was highly mobile, because the terrain lends itself to that sort of warfare.