Ukraine attack not working as planned - scenarios?

In My Humble Opinion
1

Deliberately posting this in IMHO …

it seems that the attack on Ukraine is not going according to plans for the russians … I admit the waters are still quite murky to call it but there seems to be patterns forming:

  • .ru has not managed to achieve air superiority
  • .ru has not managed to enter (let alone hold) any mayor metropolis
  • .ru seems to suffer disproportional losses on life and material
  • .ru soldiers seem to be not high on morale or otherwise committed - e.g. a bunch of civilians stalling a tank-column, heavily armed .ru soldiers being chastitised (?) by local grandmothers
  • .ru material seem to be in really bad shape and/or really old/obsolete
  • .ru seems to have some serious supply chain issues
  • the international response is way stronger than most would have guessed, and still gaining momentum
  • Ukraine seems to do an excellent job on PR-warfare and seem to be quite amicable to their foes (tho, that could be message-controlled)

Based on what we know at the present stage, who is running aginst time … who can play on time?

I’d venture the guess that it is “politically” impossible for Putin to abandon the attack as its incompatible with his “strongman-image” - so I think we can (unfortunately) discard this option.

So what are things/scenarios we might will see in the next coupe of days/weeks?

2

I think that a possible scenario is that Putin annexes either de facto or de iure the 2 breakaway republics and perhaps some stretch of land connecting them with Crimea, declares victory and returns his troops to the new frontier, Ukraine loses those territories but continues to exist and probably joins the EU and/or NATO (this last option depending on how the war goes). Everybody is “happy” and peace returns.
I’m often too optimistic with respect to geopolitic outcomes so take it with a grain of salt.

3

Ukraine and Russia are going to have talks at the apparent request of Moscow. It might be that Russia annexes the breakaway region and other parts of eastern Ukraine. I think that any scenario in which there is still a country called Ukraine and Zelensky is still alive has to be seen as an incredible victory for Kyiv.

4

It is simply much too early to make any such statements. For example the U.S. led invasion of Iraq in 2003 took a month. Or going back to WWII, D-day was June 6, 1944 but Germany didn’t surrender until May 8, 1945.

5

Yeah, but none of that included reports of grossly bad planning, low morale and equipment when referring to the allies in both of those wars.

Instead of a quick violent victory and a nervous but relatively peaceful takeover, now it looks like Russia’s eventual victory (I hope I’m wrong here) will be a hundred times worse for Russia than the drain in manpower, material and money that the US and other western nations suffered with the ill-advised invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.

6

Can you point me to news articles on these topics? I’m finding it difficult to navigate all the flood of information, so would appreciate some pointers.

7

If a handful of the most fervent anti-Russian politicians in Ukraine can be convinced to step down in exchange for a Russian withdrawal from all but the breakaway areas, Putin would have the “victory” he needs to say he “de-nazified” the country. That saves him from a military disaster, but the sanctions and almost universal ill will toward Russia aren’t going away any time soon.

8

I wonder if Vlad was expecting this to be a walkover, and so tried to do it on the cheap? I mean, you have to think he’s got decent equipment and soldiers somewhere that he could have brought to bear.

Unless his generals are sabotaging him.

9

What I worry about is the scenarios in which Putin feels he’s backed into a corner and decides he’ll launch one or two nukes to try to scare “the west.” I doubt he’d use them in Ukraine or against a NATO country, but maybe he’ll attack a medium sized city in Finland and / or Sweden, thinking this will win him back some credibility without triggering Article 5.

10

Nitpick, but Russia has air superiority. They have more air assets deployed than UKR. What they do not have is air supremacy. The airspace is still contested.

But yes, I too expected Russia would easily have air supremacy by now. I am continually stunned at Ukraine’s tenacity and success.

11

“Don’t nuke anybody” isn’t just a NATO thing; it’s an EVERYONE thing. If Putin nukes anyone, Ukraine, NATO, or elsewhere, he’s going to be screwed six ways from Sunday. Everyone from the US and China on down to Lichtenstein would declare war on him.

12

Are you so sure about that? I haven’t really heard of a standing international pact that would cause countries to declare war on first use of nuclear weapons.

Certainly they’d become a pariah nation, but they already are. That’s the danger here; if we push them into a corner where they don’t have anything else to lose, the use of nukes becomes much more likely.

I kind of think they should have held some sanctions in reserve for that very reason, and not made the Russians feel cornered, once it became apparent that their offensive wasn’t going as planned.

13

Why the hell would he nuke Finland or Sweden?

14

A country that is willing to launch a nuclear first strike on anyone cant be trusted not to launch a first strike on everyone. The only responsible reaction is massive retaliation in kind.

15

I disagree here … many will read the situation as “Russia could not even underthrow the Ukrains” …

lets face it … i think it is fair to say that most of the people today have a vastly less favourable opinion on Russia’s army ability than we had a week ago … they run the risk of becoming the butt end of jokes …

(crying kid-soldiers, tank columns driving disoriented among residential buildings, being told to F.O., ordinary people on the street engaging highly armed soldiers and other stuff you can see on https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarReports/new/)

edit: spelling, clarity

16

I was picturing a scenario like this. Ukraine’s armed forces are doing well, and on the verge of kicking out the invading Russians. They have been aided by supplies being sent in by land over the Polish and Romanian borders, as well as naval resupply into Odesa with help from the Turkish navy. Finland and Sweden, having seen how things gone, have also asked to be admitted into NATO. The sanctions have led to Putin to become even less popular, not just to the ordinary Russian on the street, but to the oligarchs. He feels that nuclear weapons are the last card he has to play, so he uses one in a place that he knows will hurt, but hopefully (to his way of thinking) not bring down even more shit on his own head.

17

i got a strong feeling he will catch a lot of domestic heat …

once people - starting tomorrow, monday - recon their lives are not the same they were past friday …

have you seend the vid’s with 100s of people standing in front of ATMs today ?

I think you wont be able to buy regular stuff like a laptop, a car or smartphone as of tomorrow (actually you can, but I’d be surprised if all that stuff cost twice the price in anticipation of things to come)

18

Currently, I think time is on the Ukrainian’s side and will remain that way as long as Russia doesn’t deliver a death blow to their military in the field.

I wouldn’t say it’s impossible, but it would be very, very painful unless Putin gets most of his demands, which I don’t see happening.

This is all going to hinge on two fronts, so to speak. Politically, will the west keep the pressure up, and keep upping the pressure on the economic and sanctions side of things? That is really mounting incredible pressure on the Russian economy and on their public. In a similar vein…what will China do? What will India do? China, especially, is the real wild card wrt economics and sanctions. The other front is, of course, the military one. Will the Ukrainian military continue to exist as a fighting force? Will they continue to fight? How will pubic morale hold out? What sort of support will they get from the west in terms of military aid and financial aid? Depending on how those fronts pan out will depend on what you are asking for.

Scenarios wise, I’d say, broadly, there are two possibilities that I see. Maybe three. The first one is Ukraine holds out, that Russia gets bogged down in a morass of intermediate fighting. Currently, Russia is holding back. They aren’t going all out to destroy Ukraine and the Ukrainian military. There are a variety of reasons for this, but that’s what’s happening. And it’s not going well for Russia under this level of fighting. So, if this continues, then I could see some sort of settlement, where Ukraine gives up the breakaway territory and Russia ceases operations. Or, Russian will collapse, and/or Putin et al are overthrown…or at least lose enough power that others step in for some sort of broader settlement. Or…Russia goes all in on its attack, basically throwing everything at Ukraine in an effort to completely destroy them and take them out. In which case, I think Russia becomes a pariah state for a long time to come.

To me, a lot of this will hinge on both the political/economic aspect as well as what happens on the battlefield. On what 3rd parties will do, such as western Europe, the US, China and India. Right now, currently, the increasing pressure from the west especially wrt sanctions and other economic impacts as well as cutting off Russia and Russians from access to the west is going to be pretty decisive, especially in the medium and long term…if it keeps up. Unless China steps in and starts pouring money and trade into Russia to mitigate the sanctions. And unless India stays on the fence. An India that comes off the fence on the wests side wrt trade, sanctions and economic impact and/or a China that stays on the fence and does nothing would also be decisive. And, of course, what happens on the battlefield can be equally decisive, especially since it could cause fence sitting nations to either stay there or pick a side.

19

The new round of sanctions have real bight and could cripple Russia’s economy. Some EU leaders were opposed to such tough measures until a conference call with Zelensky.

From the article:
But a handful of key leaders — notably including German Chancellor were reluctant to proceed with some of the harshest proposals. Scholz told reporters on the way into the leaders-only meeting that he wanted to focus on implementing sanctions that had already been approved before enacting new ones….

Then Ukrainian President dialed into the meeting via teleconference with a bracing appeal that left some of the world-weary politicians with watery eyes. In just five minutes, Zelensky — speaking from the battlefields of Kyiv — pleaded with European leaders for an honest assessment of his country’s ambition to join the EU and for genuine help in its fight with the Russian invaders. Food, ammunition, fuel, sanctions — Ukraine needed its European neighbors to step up with all of it.

It was extremely, extremely emotional,” said a European official briefed on the call. “He was essentially saying: ‘Look, we are here dying for European ideals.”

Before disconnecting the video call, Zelensky told the gathering matter-of-factly that it might be the last time they saw him alive, according to a senior E.U. official who was present.

20

It might be Maria Romanov’s time to stage a coup.
But seriously, Putin was merely peacekeeping in the breakaway regions so he has that to fall back on to save face. As long as Kiev agrees to let them secede he can claim victory.