A head line from CNN.
How would he step up his campaign? Russian soldiers are murdering and raping civilians. The only thing I can think of is using tactical nuclear weapons.
Kinda curious about this myself.
How can Ukraine be in worse trouble from Russia (barring use of nukes or chemical weapons)?
Also, WTF is causing him to have to wait until May 9 before he can formally declare war?
May 9th is Victory Day in Russia, a holiday that commemorates the victory over Nazi Germany in WWII. It’s sometimes called V-E Day (Victory in Europe Day) in other countries, and observed on May 8th; as Germany’s surrender was late in the day of the 8th, and it was already past midnight in the Soviet Union at that point, it’s observed on the 9th in Russia, and other former Soviet countries.
Anyway, the day is apparently still a big deal in Russia, and there’s been speculation for some weeks that some sort of significant declaration regarding Ukraine would happen on that day.
How can Putin make things worse for Ukraine by declaring war? Someone mentioned battlefield nukes and using chemical or biological weapons. I don’t think he wants to cross that line, but what he can do is mobilize far more materials and troops and roll out a truly scorched earth approach across the entire country.
Instead of lobbing cruise missiles and artillery rounds randomly into cities, he could start carpet-bombing the entire country, much in the same way the allies did to Germany and Japan in WWII. In other words, turn it up to 11 until Ukraine is literally a smoldering pile of metal and earth.
Putin has the capability to wipe Ukraine off the face of the earth using conventional weapons if he wants to. Russia has overwhelming military superiority, but it will take throwing everything they have at Ukraine to make that happen.
Why can’t he just do that now?
To do that would require the complete support of the Russian military and more importantly the Russian people. Many Russian soldiers would die. This war hasn’t gone well, or as Putin had expected, and he risks the possible collapse of his regime if things don’t end well for Russia or if NATO decides to step in.
I think that’s why he’s cautiously waging this war. He thinks they are close to winning, while the rest of the world thinks it will end in a stalemate. He thinks that by continuing to apply pressure Ukraine will eventually surrender, but that doesn’t seem likely. Victory Day will give Putin an excuse to crank it up if he feels everybody is still behind him. Victory Day is hugely symbolic to the Russian people, and he needs their support to utterly destroy Ukraine.
Are you suggesting Russia has gone easy on Ukraine so far and, with a declaration of war, they can turn it up to 11 when they have only been on 6-7 up till now??
I wouldn’t say they’ve gone easy on Ukraine, but they have a lot of military options they haven’t used yet. I think they thought it would be over in 3 weeks, and with the help of the West, Ukraine has been able to hold on at this point.
I think that if Russia wanted to destroy Ukraine they could do it in a matter of weeks using everything they’ve got. They have a lot more troops and resources they could mobilize against Ukraine that they haven’t yet. Once they declare war, the gloves come off.
He’s going to declare victory on the 9th no matter what happens. He might even declare victory and go home. More likely he’ll stop trying to invade Ukraine and just bombard them using artillery based in Russia. He can do that with far fewer soldiers and equipment.
Right, but what difference does “declaring war” make? He’s already waging a war, what does it matter if he admits it?
To the Russians, it’s not a war, it’s an incursion to stop Nazisim in Ukraine. To the world, it’s naked aggression, and while it’s as close to war as you can get, by not calling it a war Putin can start it and stop it whenever he wants. Once he declares war then there’s no turning back until Ukraine is completely defeated and the country is annihilated. Words matter.
Yes, Putin, please do that. Escalate the war until your country is totally bled of all resources and equipment. Then China, Ukraine, Poland, Finland, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Japan can all each take a rightful chunk of your land.
Is there something stopping him from going all out without calling it a war? I don’t mean to be obtuse but I’m just not seeing how it changes anything. You say yourself he can start or stop as he likes now, so he can just keep escalating now can’t he? Why do these words matter? What is currently preventing him from doing whatever he wants?
I’m not sure how long they can keep this up. Especially with sanctions against them.
Putin claims to have invaded Ukraine to save them from a Nazi regime. That’s how he sold it to the Russian people, many of which have relatives in Ukraine. He can’t just decide to wipe Ukraine off the face of the earth, which is what all-out war would mean unless he has a reason. By declaring victory on the one hand, and all-out war on the other hand, he can now justify escalating things. If he just does it for the sake of doing it how can he justify the deaths of all those Russian conscripts?
Hrrrmm…maybe. But I’m not entirely convinced (barring going nuclear, which I doubt is in the offing) considering how things have gone thus far. The one really dramatic thing he could do is strip out all of his uncommitted regular battalion tactical groups from everywhere else, replace them with reservists and then throw the whole Russian regular army shebang at Ukraine. Basically commit ALL of his regular ground assets of any note. That might be pretty dangerous for Ukraine.
But that is a risky move designed to give paranoid authoritarian leaders cold sweats - maintaining internal and border security is big with those cats. Also it is not guaranteed to work, or at least may not work quickly and cleanly enough for a nervous demagogue.
More likely would be to use a formal declaration of war as cover for a truly mass mobilization of the reserves and throw those at Ukraine. On paper it is a very large force and on paper Russian does have decrepit, rusty equipment for many of them. Mass quantity does have a limited quality of its own. But talk about a barely trained logistics nightmare, especially if many of them are highly unmotivated to begin with. Most of them are conscript reserves years past their single year of service. Russian conscripts aren’t good to begin with. Reluctant, older reservists with faded skills are going to be that much worse. Even many of the ones that buy into Putin’s rhetoric are not going to be overjoyed about getting called up to get shot at on foreign soil.
If it becomes a war of attrition, then who do you think will win? Ukraine is still standing because Russia hasn’t thrown everything at them yet. Once that happens, it’s only a matter of time. When it’s over, assuming Ukraine doesn’t surrender soon, there will be nothing left of Ukraine, unless NATO chooses to step in.
What’s the difference between deciding to wipe the Ukraine out and deciding to declare war then wiping them out? They’re both arbitrary decisions made by Putin. I’d understand if there’s some kind of domestic legal technicality that gives him more power if he declares war but you don’t seem to be saying that.
I don’t know. If it were an existential war of survival for Russia a la WW II, I’d bet heavily on Russia. But it is more an existential war of survival for Ukraine. And Russia is under massive economic pressure. I wouldn’t say it is even by any means. Russia definitely holds the upper hand and has more options. Regardless even a Ukrainian “victory” is going to leave a war-ravaged, devastated country. While the Russian countryside, potential economic collapse aside, will be basically unscathed. Which is one of those better options Russia has - they can declare a partial victory however spurious, withdraw, get out from under sanctions and rebuild. Meanwhile leaving sections of Ukraine a smoldering ruin.
But I don’t think this is a definite gimme for Russia. I kinda did at one point, but not any more.