I’ve noticed that lots of things in Ukraine are returning to normal, based on the Ukraine soccer league games being played and public ceremonies I’ve seen on tv.
With Ukraine’s recent advances in pushing back Russia, is there no fear that Putin will unleash hundreds of missiles to retaliate?
Also, it’s obvious that the provision of weapons and other military aid by the US and the west are greatly helping Ukraine. Why is Putin not complaining about this assistance? It’s causing him to lose his war. It seemed like conventional wisdom prevented other countries from sending actual troops and their militaries, as that could start WW3. But why would it be okay to send weapons? Isn’t that kind of the same thing?
Finally, what would happen if Ukraine started their own attacks into Russian territory? Launch missiles into Russia as retaliation, or as a deterrent.
I guess the elephant in the room on all these questions is that Russia has the ability to launch a nuclear bomb into Ukraine. But I’m not sure why Russia wouldn’t send a nuke simply due to all the assistance Ukraine is already receiving. Wouldn’t losing the war be the actual impetus for Putin to take that radical step?
“Just” invading Ukraine made everyone send them ton of weapons and Sweden and Finland join NATO. Putin’s goal is to Make Russia Great Again and though he, correctly, figured attacking Ukraine wouldn’t cause NATO and friends to move much beyond sanctions and harsh words, he’s able to weigh the benefits of dropping a nuke (none, unless you count petty vengeance) against the risks. Sure the rest of the world could decide to go the Chamberlain route and give the mad dog what it wants, but he could also provoke a UN sanctioned invasion and disarmament of mother Russia.
Ukraine doesn’t pose an existential threat to Russia, as opposed to NATO and the US. While things haven’t gone well lately for the Russian military, Putin still believes he can win, and on paper, he should be winning, even with the support of the West for Ukraine.
Putin has done an excellent job silencing anyone who challenges him, with more than a few of his oligarch allies falling out of windows.
A people’s revolution doesn’t seem likely with the military firmly backing him.
Putin could deploy tactical/battlefield nukes if he wanted to end the war quicker, but that’s not a line he seems ready or willing to cross. If he were to deploy nukes, I think the world, including even China, would unite against him. His only ally left would be North Korea. IOW, it would be suicide for Russia.
Yes, it is not without risk to him either, which is presumably why it hasn’t happened yet.
Also there are rumblings of dissatisfaction among his allies in Russia and Chechnya. There’s only so long he can go on firing generals he’s just appointed.
I too think this is a possibility. It seems he is also very stuck on keeping that declaration somehow, so very tenuously sort of legal… No idea at this point how he might wrangle that in reality or his own mind. But if he does do it. I don’t think it will require any extra conscription measures. But I don’t know if it will sell well at that level with the majority of Russian citizens. So far they seem to be onboard at this level. Though the successful Ukraine offensive in Kharkiv may have dulled that support.
Maybe, but that’s how proxy wars work. The U.S. didn’t attack the U.S.S.R for supplying weapons to the North Vietnamese Army in the 1960s, and the U.S.S.R. didn’t do the same to the U.S. for supplying the Mujahedeen in the 1980s, despite the fact that the weapons were responsible for thousand of their soldiers being killed. There was an unspoken mutual agreement not to expand the war to a direct conflict, and the same unspoken agreement exists today - until it doesn’t.
The thing about a nuclear deterrent is that it works best as just that - a deterrent. “Don’t do X, or they might use nukes!” In this case, X is “Send actual NATO troops into battle in Ukraine”. No one wants to do that, because no one wants to go nuclear over this.
But if Putin unilaterally decides to nuke something? Well, then, the worst has happened, so there’s no point in trying to avoid it any longer. A single nuke in Ukraine would cause the very NATO mobilization Putin wanted to avoid.
Plus, even a single nuke risks setting off a total nuclear war. Sure, Putin might be willing to do that to avoid losing Russia itself, but is he willing to do that just over Ukraine? As bad as losing in Ukraine would be, so long as Russia itself remains independent, Putin stays as absolute ruler of the largest country in the world. Rich in Russia might not be as fancy as rich in the US, or Western Europe, but it’s still a pretty sweet gig. Why risk that?
The conventional wisdom why Putin hasn’t declared war and initiated a general mobilization is that doing so would draw troops from his political power base - big urban areas like Moscow and St Petersburg, thereby increasing potential for political unrest as casualties stack up. As it stands, they’re drawing most of their recruits from impoverished rural areas. The unpopularity of a draft grows exponentially worse the longer the conflict goes on and the more casualties are sustained. It was largely Russian mothers, after all, that put an end to their war in Afghanistan.
Another of the less discussed reasons Putin doesn’t want to make this an official war is to reduce costs. Russian military payrolls are similar to that of the US. Both have complicated benefits packages for active duty servicemembers and their families. When there are wars going on, personnel costs increase dramatically for things like ‘combat pay,’ ‘selective assignment bonuses’, and ‘hazardous duty’ pay. When there is no war going on there’s no need to pay these additional benefits.
I’m pretty sure the Media hasn’t picked up on what winter in the Ukraine is like — pretty brutal according to accounts of Napoleon’s an Hitler’s failure there. Putin would know better. For now, the war there is over. Russia withdraws as it did before the Wehrmacht, thus shortening supply lines through a devastated countryside and turning support of the population over to occupying forces for a season. No doubt Russian forces will return revitalized in the spring.
Not so much in the coastal region, like Kherson.That’s more of a Mediterranean climate with only moderate cold (-5°C or warmer). Sure it sucks being in a ruined home with broken windows and no heating, but military operation will do fine.
As you head away from coast, temperature descend colder, even to -10 °C or less, but the autumn rains will turn a fair part of landscape in muddy bog, and the winter will frost it than cover it with snow (up to 80 mm in mean). Don’t forget that Russians and Ukrainians are accustomed to this winter times.
