Surely if he needs a reason to attack without declaring war then he needs the same reason to declare war. So why can’t he just use the “declare war” reason to wage a war without declaring a war?
It might be that his goal is, as stated, to secure the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics in response to Ukraine’s alleged violation of the Minsk agreements.
~Max
Calling up roughly 3-3.5 million active and reserve, and then maybe 10-20M fighting age.
It’s their annual parade. I’m not sure why anyone’s placing much faith in this date. I’ve tossed it into the bargain bin of weird claims that never panned out, such as running out of ammo after a few days or a few weeks. Half the claims the press made turned out to be BS.
I don’t think anyone knows what’s going on.
I’m not entirely as confident. Reason being that while there’s talk of oil and gas blockages, Europe is still buying the stuff and the Russians have been charging even more. An EU vote will never come to fruition because nations like Hungary don’t give a damn and won’t vote against Russia. Getting oil and gas from other nations will be paramount, but it’ll take years to establish pipelines, and then you need to pay everyone transit fees. Ukraine and Russia are the key suppliers in a lot of metals and products needed for a variety of day to day products. The war has affected grain distribution and sales to countries needing it the most. Egypt recently rejected buying grain from Russia because it was in fact rerouted Ukrainian grain. Egypt being in the pocket of the USG is reason why, to the tune of nearly 2B a year in military aid. Syria and Lebanon won’t say no to that grain, both despise us in the west. Doing a modern day Marshall Plan for Ukraine if it ever comes to that will cost trillions. We can’t even replace most of the stuff we’ve sent to Ukraine here in the US because it takes forever to get those factories up and running and producing. Taiwan just got snubbed by us because we began sending Howitzers intended for them at the factories to Ukraine.
Not good for an ally, but I suppose we weighed the risk of China trying something funny before deciding to divert those guns.
Edit: Here’s a prime example.
Newsweek is claiming $900M a day. The previous figure I’d seen back in March was an asinine figure. $20B as in BILLION USD was the figure thrown out.
I still can’t see $900M a day being used.
The Afghan war cost the US $300M a day over 20 years from just after 9/11 until just before the country fell back into the hands of the Taliban. And that’s at the insane MSRP of products charged to the US taxpayer via the military from defense companies, salaries, medical, food, etc. On top of the stupid amounts of fire power our government troops used on Afghanistan. The Iraq war alone cost the US $2T in under 20 years from March '03 to 2020.
What’s next, Putin’s semen is more valuable than race horse semen?
I just did the math. Going by 17 years * 365 days standard, lands you at 6,205 days, dividing that from 2T leaves you just under 323M a day. And that’s with handing over billions to the Iraqis in US cash and free equipment, again at our cost.
An official declaration of war means different things in various countries.
It usually gives the declaring government extraordinary options. So that resources and manpower can be easily brought to bare that could not be done legally/constitutionally without the declaration.
Without that formal declaration the government may not be able to initiate, sustain or enlarge a military endeavor. It may not be able to engage in certain actions of war as opposed to a military operation.
It is not a universal uniform thing. So it is difficult to know why a state may feel the need to make that declaration, even after a military operation is already underway for some time.
It is depressing to see so much lurid propaganda this way and that in these threads.
None of that applies in Russia though does it?
In Russia, Putin is the state. He has full dictatorial power and is not concerned with beaurocratic and political niceties or legal matters regarding executive overreach
He is very much concerned with internal message control and censorship and any formal declaration will be with that in mind.
See above.
He does have a lot of power. He earned it. And he has great public support. Russia does have a government. It has it’s problems as do all. It does not come as close to dictatorial as many others. The constant anti Russia narrative for so many decades continues to color the current reality. Not perfect of course. But not nearly as bad as commonly believed.
Putin did connive his ability to go in and out of his position over the years. But you do need to consider what he has done for Russia under his leadership. He is no angel. But he has brought the country ever forward. Also consider the offensive military operations record of Russia, versus one or two other major world powers. Putin and Russia are peaceniks in comparison.
That is a generous interpretation of the situation. Putin and his cronies are mafia bosses writ large.
Do you think the Russian attack on Ukraine is justified?
Okay…
For decades Russia has warned about other military forces encroaching on it’s borders. Obviously NATO foremost. When the USSR dissolved there were agreements between Russia and western systems that they would not encroach. But the western ones did. Constantly. Russia kept asking them not to. Ignored. Russia warned them. Ignored. Red Line. Ignored.
Ukraine has been a pathway to invasion of Russia before. Tens of millions of Russians killed in those invasions.
Consider this. Mexico joins a military alliance with Russia. They will set up huge bases, air fields, defensive and offensive missile systems along the Mexico border. Does the U.S. say that is fine? I think Mexico would be the target of a military operation of the U.S.
The Russian invasion is not about wanting to take Ukraine. It is about not having it be taken by ones who loudly call Russia their enemy. Russia very much wanted Ukraine to be a neutral state unto itself.
Also. Ukraine forces were preparing for a large scale battle to retake the Donbass regions. Home to mostly Russian folks. That is why a large amount of the Ukraine forces were in the east. That is where the battles are now happening. Ukraine signed onto the Minsk agreements to not attack those areas. But have been attacking them for years.
Unfortunately we are now only hearing about the immediate stuff. Slanted as well. It is up to us to dig deeper to find the root causes of events.
Before the warring broke out there were news and documentary items in mainstream media about the corruption and Nazi problems in Ukraine. There were very many U.S. and other western experts warning about encroaching on Russia’s security zone. Predicting exactly this state of affairs. President Obama himself laid it out very well.
You did not answer the question, you’ve just parroted the Kremlin line. No western forces and no NATO countries have threatened Russia territory. Russia does not get to tell free countries what to do.
You sound like you are supportive of Russia’s aims, you sound like you think the attack is justified.
I ask again, do you think the Russian attack on Ukraine is justified?
Fine.
Considering the situation. Yes I do think it is justified. Far more justified than so many military operations undertaken since WW2 by “our side”.
But I so very much wish that it did not happen.
My surname happens to be Ukrainian.
Really? Will no longer reply to you.
Ok, you’ve made your position clear.
I think it is an abhorrent position that supports war against innocent civilians but it is you that has to live with yourself.
That’s fine, I think I’ve heard enough so that suits both of us.
Oh, you mean like the time that exact thing happened and the US didn’t invade its neighbor that had allied with Russia?
The missiles were removed. As later were the U.S. missiles in Turkey which were an issue in the whole situation.
This situation arose and was resolved quickly. Thankfully. But it was extremely scary and volatile. The Ukraine issue has been going on for much longer. It is so frustrating that it was not averted long ago. It is definitely not just a Russia Ukraine situation. Other players have stoked the fire.
It is in some ways akin to the Cuban missile crisis. A third country a pawn on the chessboard. Russia did not want missiles in Turkey. It was ignored. So they put missiles in Cuba. We went so very close to the edge. Behind the scenes, concessions were agreed. Wonderful, no war. After the missiles in Cuba were removed, the missiles in Turkey were removed.
I wish such give and take had happened before the Ukraine situation boiled over into actual war.
Though the Cuba situation was far from a good diplomatic solution in it’s beginnings, it ended logically.
Nice use of the passive voice. How, pray tell, did “the Ukraine situation” “boil over” into war?
Ukraine wanted to join a military coalition that for decades has considered Russia an enemy that should be destroyed. The option was for Ukraine to be neutral as several other countries are.
It is not passive voice. It is a fact to my way of thinking. I prefer no war.