I fear this may be what’s going to happen. Russia continues to pour troops in and Kyiv remains the primary target. As frustration over the lack of success grows, willingness to just start blowing everything up will also grow.
As distasteful as it would be, at this point it might be the best move that will save the most lives.
Putin plays chess so he certainly understands gambits.
Russia is past gambits; this is middle game now.
I wonder how an extended siege of a major city worked out for the invader the last time it happened in that corner of the map.
Maybe someone in Volgograd might know.
Yeah, though this would hinge on the Russian army actually being willing to go all in for such a thing. It’s hard, at this stage, to gauge this and I’m unsure they are. That sort of thing takes a level of commitment that I don’t think the Russian military has. Oh, sure, Putin is willing to risk their lives for his own gains…but are they into this enough to do the same? One thing for sure, is that the Russians are far from out of options, and still have quite a bit of their military, even their forward deployed military in reserve, waiting to be thrown in. Will they be though? Will Russia take off the gloves wrt air strikes and unrestricted air attacks? I don’t know. Certainly doing so risks both civilian deaths on a whole 'nother scale (and the inevitable bad press that will garner Russia…which is probably more of a concern to Putin et al than the deaths of some miserable Ukrainian civilians) as well as risks Russia having some of it’s least replaceable assets endangered. At a certain point, the juice isn’t going to be worth the squeeze…an, in fact, I think we are already there (in fact, I think they were there when the first tank rolled across the border, but that’s just me).
The future depends on internal pressures.
Three levels of influence are important in Russia: the military, the oligarchs, and the populice.
The military can’t be happy at Putin’s performance at the meeting where he made them cower like frightened animals. They were not prepared for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and their troops are running out of food and fuel. Putin is going to roll heads for their failures, so they may be asking themselves whether to make the first move.
The oligarchs are furious at being cut off from their money and luxury homes and yachts. Getting away from Russia is a main perk of their position. Being a billionaire from a pariah nation is a losing proposition.
The bulk of people are normally not important in Putin’s decisions, but he’s facing amazing problems there as well. The stock market has tanked, the ruble has fallen by half, and their are long lines of people trying to get their life savings out of banks because the banking system may fail. Is it possible for Putin to recreate the banking system, the import/export system, and the internet totally internally? What happens when the country’s economy simply stops? Turning Russia into North Korea is the long-term goal of these sanctions. And China can’t prop it up - and probably wouldn’t if they could.
Putin is increasingly looking like Hitler in 1945, desperately seeking a miracle solution that would save him. Hitler wanted nukes that he didn’t have, though; Putin has them. The situation may come down to that because Ukraine can’t be conquered before Russia collapses internally. The question then becomes who is the ultimate decider?
Yes, Russia definitely can’t a fjord any more economic woes.
They might have to cove in to NATO.
They will if Ukraine continues to hold them at bay.
Wonder if Putin will use some tactical nukes if defeat starts staring him in the eye, along with the risk of him being overthrown. Ukraine not being under the NATO umbrella, he might get away with it.
I think he made the same mistake that a lot of people are making these last few years. He believed his own propaganda.
He really believed that Ukraine’s government were a bunch of corrupt weaklings that were hated by the populace, and that defeating them would be a mere matter of marching.
That almost never works out.
Best result I think could happen is that some elements in Russia finally say “Enough is enough” and depose Putin. I’m not sure who would have both the motivation and the ability to do that, though. I hope someone in Russia does know, however.
Not a chance in hell. Any nuclear strike is going to result in massive retaliation and MAD.
What a shame if the Kremlin is reduced to a field of smoking debris, and St. Basil’s Cathedral with it.
You know that the “M” in “MAD” means that Washington DC, New York, London, Paris, etc., would be left in the same condition, yes?
Throw in Mar-a-Lago and we can talk.
I thought of an archipelago pun, but it was just Scilly, so I didn’t make it.
Obviously I am happy that the pushes on kyiv and Kharkiv are not going well, and the Russian ineffective actions are getting a lot of media attention. Given that we don’t really know what Putins objective is, and things may be going better ( for russia) out of Crimea, is it possible that we are seeing well publicized noise up on the North, whilst putin solidifies and links up Crimea and Donbas?
Seriously, though, Putin would have to know a US counterattack would be likely if he used nukes in Ukraine, so he’d have to simultaneously launch a first strike to try to disable America’s nuclear arsenal - which would be impossible and would guarantee a US counterattack, so in the end he gains nothing and loses everything.
A 2006 US Army staff college study. Logistics was a major problem and the offensive got halted for nearly a week in 2003.
And the US military was far better equipped and supplied than the Russians are, plus they weren’t undergoing a global boycott.
Quite the opposite actually. If you read the whole paper it faults commanders for buying Rumsfeld “Revolution in Military Affairs” in supporting his preference for “light, lethal and noble “ forces and cutting out a lot of “the logistic tail”.
Guessing some Russkie read the RMA and forgot the US abandoned it.
The again tanks outrunning their supplies is a recurring theme in mechanized warfare, all the way from the very first battle at Cambrai in 1917.