Eventually can be a long time coming. Even if they emerged from the war with all four oblasts intact (not going to happen), Russia would be a basket case for decades. Before the war Russia had a lower per capita GDP than Turkey or Greece. They are not gong to magically rebuild their shattered army and shaken economy for a decade or three - the money won’t exist to do so. And those Ukrainian territories would be a massive economic sink for decades - there is nothing but fragments of their old industrial economy left. They’re battle-torn basket-cases.
Even if they did rebuild who exactly are they going to threaten, even at pre-war strength?
Here’s the thing. In this thread I see some wild exuberance that Ukraine has already won, it’s just a matter of time. Simultaneously there are dire warnings that if Ukraine doesn’t win, Russia will become an existential threat to take over all of Europe.
Realistically, both of these scenarios cannot co-exist. Because if Ukraine can plausibly beat up Russia, Russia is not a existential threat to Europe. And if Russia were an existential threat to take over Europe, they’d be beating the shit out of Ukraine.
Russia has nukes. That’s plenty bad, but that’s the only trump card they hold. It renders them sort of uninvadable in any serious way, but that’s about it. Sure they can render Europe uninhabitable, but they’re not taking over anything - they’d be a nation of cinders as well in that timeline.
We did this back in 2020, with a lot of debate about just how threatening Russia is. This war has answered some of those questions - they’re rather less dangerous than feared. If Russia had invaded Poland instead of Ukraine in 2022, NATO would have eventually steamrolled them. End of story. If Russia invaded Poland in 2024 with their current, heavily-damaged military, Poland might be able to push them out themselves.
None of which should be taken as a suggestion that Ukraine should trade land for a quick peace. Just that Russia ain’t the mighty bear that the U.S.S.R. once was. It’s an old, arthritic, rheumatic bear with kidney, prostate and heart issues. Also diabetes. And it needs a walker. And is half-blind.
ETA: That said I’m not on the side that thinks Ukraine is inevitably going to come out of this a total winner, either. If by winning we mean a return to the pre-2014 borders. I’m a little too cautious to join the wildly exuberant camp. Might happen, but a settlement of less than that is also possible. The only thing that is clear is Ukraine is not getting conquered in toto.