Precisely. Fox News and the GOP are major apologists for Putin at this point and claim to understand why he views NATO as a threat to Russia.
Exactly. Destruction of NATO is a prime goal for Putin.
And getting the alliance to join forces against Al Qaeda after 9-11 was a much simpler task than getting Germany, France, Belgium, etc. to be willing to back military action against Russia.
The entire point of NATO is to back military action against Russia. It’s that threat that stopped the Cold War from going hot for 45 years. If there’s no will to defend against Russian expansion now, then NATO may as well pack their shit, go home, and tell Putin he can have as much of Europe as he wants.
Why do you keep repeating things that everyone knows?
Yes, we all know.
And Putin will test that concept. It’s Ukraine now. It’ll be Poland or the Baltic states next. It’ll be the same shit - fomenting “rebellion” in areas with ethnic Russians and lots of lying about what’s going on.
The key difference being that Ukraine isn’t a NATO member and an attack on Ukraine is not an attack on the US. Invading a NATO state is a much bigger Rubicon for Putin to cross and I don’t see him trying it.
And that’s exactly the bet I’m saying Putin is making.
And if he’s wrong, the best-case scenario for him is that he winds up on house arrest for the rest of his life after a drawn-out ground war in eastern Europe and his overthrow by military leadership.
The worst-case scenario is he’s vaporized by a nuclear explosion along with most of the rest of the world.
I don’t disagree with either of those outcomes so much. But I think Putin does. I seriously believe he thinks NATO will blink. Either way, he doesn’t give a shit.
That’s really the calculation that Putin and Xi are making. Is it or is it not worth the so-called integrity of the Western democracies and their alliances with countries in the near abroads of the big rival nations? If I were a betting man, I’d bet no. There is no appetite for war with China or Russia.
Putin didn’t get to where he is today by not giving a shit. I’m not convinced he wants to risk World War III in order to get Estonia.
Depends on what you mean about him being wrong. Would blitzing the Baltics in a couple of days and then fighting NATO to a standstill in Poland and Romania until resolve wavers count as him being wrong? NATO can fight and not end with a Russian defeat, btw. The bulk of NATO forces are the US, and Russia’s supply lines are much closer.
Your worst case scenario is correct though
But both those scenarios are if he’s wrong. You might think he’d be wrong. I think NATO would fight for the Baltics. But I’m not 100% sure of that and Putin might be even more skeptical. I do think pacifying Ukraine and turning attention to the Asian former Soviet republics is more likely than attacking NATO outright though. Covert action, both military and political, on the other hand…
It seems to me that NATO would be perfectly capable of establishing air superiority over the Baltics early on - and for Russia to counter that would require them to launch attacks on bases in Germany and the Mediterranean, which would only strengthen NATO’s resolve to keep up the fight and energize the public in favor of the war effort.
I’m curious what you’re basing that on? Can you comment on the effectiveness of the S-400 SAM vs NATO aircraft? I think you’re wildly overestimating the tech advantage NATO has.
Actually yes he did. He has murdered political rivals in very sloppy ways that have been easily traced back to him - at home and abroad. He invaded Crimea on made up pretexts and avoided any serious consequences. He has had his minions rig election after election. He has locked up anyone who voices opposition and seen no repercussions in any way. He invaded Georgia on made up pretexts and conducted a genocidal war in Chechnya without ever being held accountable. His behavior has become more and more outrageous with each passing year. Clearly, he doesn’t give a shit about what other nations think or actions they may threaten against him. He KNOWS no one is willing to risk WW3 over the things he has done or will do.
And sorry to Estonia, but none of the other NATO countries care a fig about them and will avert their eyes and let Putin overrun them if that’s what he decides to do.
Not necessarily. It depends on post-disaster public opinion in the NATO countries. Whether due to anger or fear, Western Europe might might greatly increase military spending. And the U.S. might be motivated to win the hypersonic arms race. so when Western powers came up with a new red line, it would be more convincing.
Xi seems sincerely against Russia taking Ukraine. Maybe part of it is that he realizes it would create a who-lost-Ukraine (or the Baltics) debate in the U.S. that would fuel our defense budgets and make us more determined to prevent further conquests, whether by Russia or China.
And yet, those countries voted unanimously to make them a member.
Yeah and…?
Why is it that you think the Baltic states were allowed to join NATO if NATO doesn’t care about them?
You misunderstand. The bulk of NATO nations care about them but I seriously doubt they will go the distance to protect them. And funnily enough it is likely Putin has eyes much more on Lithuania and Latvia than Estonia due to shipping access year-round.
But I digress. The NATO nations were eager to allow the Baltic states into the club for several reasons but I would say the biggest reason was guilt. The Soviet occupation of the Baltics that happened in 1939 was protested by the West and never recognized but nothing was ever done about it. When the USSR collapsed independence for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia became a way for the West to assuage their guilt for allowing those three nations to be occupied for 50+ years by the Soviets. Expedited membership in NATO was part of the absolution.