He is willing to risk WWIII fo restore what he (and frankly most Russians) think is Russia’s rightful place in the sun*. Re acquiring lost areas is part an parcel of that
Also a lot of you haven’t read Art V. It does not commit anyone to military action, just measures thy seem necessary. Sarcastic tweets are sufficient. Will Germany etc fight for Estonia? Do you think risking Tampa for Tallinn is worth the risk? Do most of you countrymen?
*For all the Hitler comparisons, I think Putin is closer to Kaiser Wilhelm then old Adolph.
The Germans rely on Russian gas (since Angela had a panic attack after Fukishima and started to decommission most of their reactors). They make a lot of money from the Russians buying BMW/Mercedes/Audis and stuff from Siemens.
Why the fucken should they risk that for Estonia?
If that’s the case, then what you saw in Ottawa is just the start. He is going to make a big effort to forment and exploit discontent in W Europe and N America.
The article says “if” Russia invades Ukraine. Problem is they’ve already invaded. I don’t care if Donetsk and Luhansk call themselves independent or not, they are still part of Ukraine. Russian troops have moved in.
Austria isn’t Germany. The article quotes the Austrian Chancellor. Germany hasn’t weighed in yet.
The NYTimes link includes the German foreign minister, in her own words, saying that Nord Stream 2 is worth shutting down if Russia invades.
And the second link predates Putin’s speech and today’s troop movements but was the most recent cite I could find. Austria is a partner in Nord Stream 2, and this is notably a complete 180 from the chancellor’s stance two weeks ago when he was opposed to including it in sanctions.
Germany “suggests” is a weak statement. “Declares” is stronger. “Insists”, “promises”, even “maintains” are stronger. “Suggests” is lame on their part. Too much room for equivication.
It “could” end is closer to what the German Foreign Minister said. Could? Still a lame word in this situation. “Should” or “will” are stronger and send a different message.
And if Putin is somehow convinced that all the West will do is scold him, hold meetings, and tell him he’s a meanie?
Putin is not afraid to kill people and break things. The West is far more reluctant to go to war than he is. He will continue to take and take until he is stopped. The longer the West waits the more expensive the final cost. But no one wants to be the first to fight back, and the whole mess could very much spiral out of control.
I’m not convinced the Americans will fight for Germany unless Germany’s enemy (in this hypothetical, Russia) directly attacks the US first. They were content to let WWII roll along without stepping into the fight for several years, and right now I don’t get the sense most people here give a flip about what’s going on in Europe however much the TV talking heads get excited over it.
A common Russian strategic analysis is. Basically, twice in the last century the US intervened to decide a European war caused by a Franco-German dispute . There is little doubt that they will fight to protect them. The UK is tied to the US by history, culture and language, so yup.
Everyone else is expendable.
“The appropriate departments of the economy ministry will make a new assessment of the security of our supply in light of what has changed in last few days.”
Si they put certification on “hold” until a new assessment can be made.
Translation: “We wait until Ukraine is out of the headlines”.
Such a war wouldn’t just be the Polish and Romanian armies. He would have to contend with Turkey from the south, US forces from the east on two separate fronts (Alaska and Japan / South Korea), Canadian forces in the Arctic, Norway to the northwest, France and Germany directly over land reinforcing Poland, and the UK naval and air forces. Russia would have no chance of victory. Their best case scenario would be Putin being overthrown in a military coup to prevent nuclear Armageddon.
ETA. If things got to that point, it wouldn’t surprise me if South Korea and Australia would also join in the effort. Maybe even Japan.
Not submarines or land forces. But presumably Russia would have to worry about fighter jets coming across the Arctic.
Either way, I doubt Russia could win a conventional war against NATO. The question is what would Putin and the Russian generals decide to do once the NATO forces start making incursions into Russian territory. Would the generals overthrow Putin to avoid nuclear war? Would they follow Putin’s presumptive orders to start launching the nukes? Maybe they ignore the orders to launch the nukes but keep fighting the conventional war until they get conquered the way Germany did at the end of WWII, complete with Putin killing himself the way Hitler did? Any of those are possible, and I’m sure there are many other scenarios as well. I hope that the most likely scenario would be a coup to oust Putin, but who knows which of those scenarios are likely. IMHO we thankfully won’t have to find out, because Putin knows that none of those scenarios, even in the best case, would work out well for him.
