I’ve been seeing an uptick in the number of articles lately that report that some Russian general or politician or tv commentator claims that they need to invade Poland, Finland, Estonia, etc. next to continue their westward expansion.
Who the hell is gullible enough to believe this kinda malarky? I could see someone buying into this maybe in late February 2022, but not after almost two years of Russia sustaining VERY significant losses in military hardware, seriously depleting their ammo stocks, and seeing its experienced junior officer ranks more or less vanish. The Russian armed forces are a shadow of their former self. The most recent push by Russians near Avdiivka found that Russian troops were no longer riding APC’s or BMP’s into battle, but rather are now reduced to using WW2 era trucks!
Don’t forget that Putin will decide what to do based on the info he’s been given. Which just might differ a tad from reality as we know it.
As well, under their “hybrid warfare” concept they can be doing all sorts of things, including intense infowar, vote rigging, organized crime and organized corruption, for years in their target country(s) before they fire the first shot.
Russia’s fundamentally nihilist project gains by sowing fear, uncertainty, and doubt everywhere in the West. Periodically making threatening noises towards any and every adjacent country is part and parcel of that project. The USA might not be too worried about Russian invasion, but a place like Estonia has different and more immediate concerns. And fresh memories of how much fun Russian occupation isn’t.
Yeah, I’m doubtful that Putin would be that stupid. Invading a NATO ally would be a declaration of war and trigger a shitstorm domino effect involving troops and machinery on the ground.
Yes, they are a pain in the bottom, and used to play their cards well. It is also true that the West let them get away with it all too often, and they never had any scruples taking advantage of that. As long as it was all virtual or personal assasination or cyber they could pretend to be the masters, and indeed they were the masters of disinformation and never lacked useful idiots among the usual resentful discontents, even in the White House.
But now that their nihilistic project relies on real weaponry including such diverse elements as: fear, surprise, ruthless efficiency, an almost fanatical devotion to the Zar, and nice green uniforms (sorry if this comes across as frivolous, but if you don’t laugh at them bullies it’s for crying out loud, this is my way to say fuck them!), it shows that their tanks are broken, their personal carriers antediluvian, their logistics chaotic, their troops drunk, their generals and politicians corrupt (and drunk too), their population misinformed and ignorant (and drunk too, drunker than you can imagine), and the great Zar himself deluded (but apparently sober. Probably the only one).
I always find it interesting to watch when manipulators and liars start believing their own propaganda. We had the same with Trump two days ago. I can’t imagine this is going to end well for Russia, but the cost for third parties, particularly smaller Eastern European countries, may be disastrous too. The third parties are well aware of this, except, it seems, Hungary, which for some reason thinks 1956 will never repeat itself. The elite is doing quite well, my friends there inform me, they call it Proto-Fascism.
It is hard to defend against an enemy that does not respect the rules. Even such a weak one as Russia, that is so fucked up that it does not seem to care what else it breaks. That is waht frightens other countries: they know their neighbours. Nihilists indeed.
That’s why it’s so crucial that the West arms and supports Ukraine. Russia is rapidly expending their cold war stockpile of munitions and mechanized armor.
Otherwise they could be capable of invading NATO countries. The threat of war with NATO only works if Russia knows it can’t win.
Right, it would go from material support to actual NATO troops on the ground, NATO aircraft in the air, NATO ships on the seas, and so forth. All using that same equipment that AFAIK, is eating their lunch in Ukraine.
In particular, the Russian Air Force would be in dire trouble because they’d be faced with a LOT of fresh, high-tech NATO planes, not the relatively tiny Ukrainian Air Force. The follow-on to that would mean that we’d pummel their ground forces from the air in a way that we haven’t really seen happening in Ukraine thus far.
Stacks of nuclear warheads say they can’t, everything else is irrelevant. There will be no high tech pummeling of Russia, nor victorious NATO armies entering Moscow. It’s nukes first time, every time. MAD holds true now just as it did during the cold war, and far too many people online seem to forget this.
It’s not going to happen. Like nuclear war, it is just Putin flexing his muscle. He has nothing else to make threats with.
Plus, Russia is not what it once was. They have exports to some of the world, so they can keep going. But their general life quality will suffer. The Russians are used to consumer goods and entertainment from the West.
I would dearly love it if Russia invaded Estonia or any other NATO nation. We can finally solve this war in 3 weeks instead of 3 years.
I think it would stay nuclear-free, despite all the threats and fearmongering, and it would be the closest thing to Red Storm Rising in real life that we’d see.
If Putin did that I suspect a quick air war against their aircraft and anti-aircraft assets. It would prevent Russia from engaging in a land war. At that point I would be more worried about a proxy nuclear war with one of Russia’s crazy allies.
I’m not really sure that China qualifies as an “ally”, either. They’re willing to tolerate Russia enough to justify making huge profits off of them. There’s a far cry from that to “willing to fight for them”. China is probably happy that Russia is getting their butts kicked, because it improves China’s negotiating position.
Well, it’s actually Nuclear: yes and no. Crazy: Yes.
Who controls the weapons? And who will control them in future, when for instance Putin is no more. Will happen sooner or later. Will be a problem. Another one.