FWIW, I am of the opinion that the bombing was done by elements of the Muslim Brotherhood, who are busy fighting an on again/off again insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula against the Egyptian government, and who are also affiliated with some of the groups the Russians have been bombing in Syria. I do not believe ISIS/ISIL is responsible, though it certainly suits the US government to claim so. It certainly wouldn’t be unprecedented however for the Russians to bomb themselves and blame another group for the attack, in order to get national and global opinion behind whatever actions the Russian government wished to take anyway.
I’ll admit that “false flag” popped into my mind when I heard it was probably a bomb. However, the problem with that theory is that Russia doesn’t need popular opinion to start bombing Syria – they’ve already gone and started. So what would they need popular opinion for? To bomb them harder?
I’m also interested to know how the bomb got on the plane in the first place. If it turns out some Egyptian gov’t agency is responsible for collusion, well – that’s really gonna throw a monkey wrench in the works.
Probably nothing. The Russians are already fighting in Syria - with little success - and they won’t get directly involved inside Egypt. It is, after all, a U.S. ally.
Well, they’ve already stopped all flights to and from Egypt. (and evacuated tourists)
And hard to say who planted a potential bomb, but the evidence is leaning more and more towards “bomb on plane”. Allegedly, the black box sound recording indicates it was a bomb.
The same place any other bandit group gets theirs: by pillaging their new subjects. Then by “taxing” anyone who tries to run an economy in their area, or who tries to bring in goods for sale.
Their “portable refineries” are pretty well known. When you can steal crude or refined goods from pipelines that’s just a very easy form of mining.
2B USD is a lot of looting and oil selling. And while it is likely that ISIS looted oil fields in E. Syria and W. Iraq, how did they move all of that oil? Usually, large quantities of oil are moved via pipeline to tanker or refinery, but weren’t most of the pipelines in ISIS-held territory inoperable for one reason or another? (And if not, why the hell not?) If pipelines are out, that leaves trains and trucks, and it takes a staggering amount of trucks to move even 200 million USD worth of oil, never mind 2 billion USD’s worth
I think the “It was the Joows!” linkbomber above is, to be polite, ‘far from credible’, but neither have I thought that ISIS is entirely self-funded. They make an excellent Sunni proxy army, counterweighting the influence of Iran and Hezbollah through Iraq and Syria.
I don’t think it’s a false flag. I think the MB did it, angered at Russian military activities against their affiliated groups in Syria. If Russia were bombing ISIS, I’d suspect them, but AFAIK, they really haven’t been. I just thought it prudent to mention the possibility that Russia might need to convince the Ivan on the Street that spending money on this sort of thing when Russia is going broke is a necessary expense.
Especially since Russia’s last military adventure, while currently under a ceasefire, doesn’t seem to have gained much for Russia. The economy of the Donbass region is largely wrecked, thousands have died, and for what? So the rebels in that slice of Eastern Ukraine can have a little more autonomy from Kiev? That was worth incurring EU and US sanctions?
There are valid geopolitical reasons for Russia getting involved in Syria: historical client state & previous purchaser of Russia military hardware, “warm water port” and naval base, blocking any gas/oil pipeline to Europe that would bypass Gazprom, etc… But it’s possible that Putin felt that those reasons wouldn’t be as visceral to the Russian public or to the oligarchs that support his rule, as a blown up Airbus filled with Russian upper middle class vacationers would be.
Word to the wise, when a great power has such delusions and they are interfering in your neighbourhood, run. Hide. Vote for whichever bugger promises the least interaction with the problem.
I’m not sure I’d call the Russians a “great power”. Their economy is weak, and their military, while large, is not particularly modern, not particularly well trained, and has very limited force projection capabilities.
But don’t worry - there’s no profit in needlessly antagonizing them. I just don’t think they’ll be that successful in their endeavors.
