FWIW, my buddies and I were robbed by Federales while camping on a private beach outside of Rosarita where we had paid the owner for permission to stay the night. They took everything except our van and the clothes we were wearing. Surfboards, camping gear, phones, everything… all gone. They told us if we squawked, we’d be arrested for drug possession (the main guy pulled a baggie of white powder from his pocket to show us what would be “found” in our possession). Granted, we were outside of town in an isolated area and basically easy targets.
So, yeah, statistically you’re not going to be murdered, but there are other types of unpleasantness I’m sure you’d rather avoid. Getting robbed is never any fun; getting robbed by the police, even worse. The sense of helplessness is pretty overpowering, in my experience.
The main thing I would ask is how much/often are you going to be at the mercy of someone who might see you as easy prey. If you’re staying in a decent hotel and are able to avoid using taxis, and keep your wits about you, then you’ll probably be fine. OTOH, if you get smashed and try to stumble back to the hotel on your own late at night… not such a good idea.
So that’s how I’d look at it… are you going to be an easy target or not?