And remember, Turkey has S-400 air defenses. Since Russia seems unwilling to risk much in the way of aircraft against Ukraine’s S-300s, I can’t imagine they’d be any more willing to use air power against Turkey. So an invasion is largely out of the question.
Well I guess the “logical” move woukd be to declarewar on Turkey, something I don’t think the Turks would like, so he could just tell them that and see if they are willing to die for Ukraine.
He declares war on Turkey though and now all of NATOs is going to drop on him. Turkey is NATO. Ukraine isn’t (yet).
True that, but I don’t think Turkey will close the straits nonetheless. I may very well be mistaken.
Russia hasn’t attacked Turkey, though. If Ukraine controlled the straits then obviously they’d be blockading Russian commercial shipping, but they don’t.
Fair question. I’m not an expert in EU law, obviously, but the answer seems to be that the Council of the EU, composed of the representatives of the national governments, have passed a series of directives which have placed specific individuals on the sanctions list. The various member states are then required to enact local laws to implement that sanctions list.
Here’s the most recent addition to the list of sanctioned individuals, as far as I can tell, adding a swack of Belerussian military officials to the list. Note that the new list starts at 697, so there are already 696 people on the list.
Here’s the rationale for putting number 697 on the list:
According to this French government article, the French are not confiscating assets of individuals on the sanctions list, but freezing them (“gel”). The owners can access them, in the case of physical things like boats, but can’t use them in any way or sell them.
I’ve not found a list of non-miltary types yet, so can’t comment on the rationale for putting them on the list.
Found it. A list of 26 oligarchs and one state company:
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/uri=CELEX:32022D0337&qid=1646357816498&from=EN
COUNCIL DECISION (CFSP) 2022/337 of 28 February 2022
Citing the EU’s unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the Council added the individauls to the sanctions list. Here’s the rationale for the first one on the list, Igor Ivanovich SECHIN:
Interesting articles from Washington Post:
And this is one of the benefits of severe sanctions. Russia does not really present any credible military threat to countries like Turkey (apart from in a doomsday scenario), but they do have financial leverage through trade and energy. If Russia in impoverished however what use is Russia to Turkey?
There’s only a benefit now for Turkey and others to turn away from Russia.
I saw a video today claiming that the US’s oil ban of Russian imports is splitting the west. Was this actually an expectation of the US that Europe would ban oil imports from Russia? I haven’t seen any indications this is the case but did I miss this and this has become a contentious issue between the US and Europe?
Splitting the West seems like an overstatment. I’m sure Europe doesn’t care if we stop buying Russian oil. (more for them) We might care that they’re not banning Russian oil imports, but I doubt we’re going to make a big deal about it.
The story I read about the US announcing the Russian oil ban quoted someone as saying something like “We did not ask and do not expect European nations to join us in this.” Doesn’t seem like much of a contentious split to me.
This was my impression as well. As far as I know and have read (and please, anyone, correct me if I’m wrong here) the US didn’t ask nor did we expect Europe to join us in halting purchases of oil…or gas. In fact, I thought we specifically said that this would be very difficult for Europe to do (they get like 40% of their oil and like 30% of their gas from Russia…something like that).
Yup. US & Canada already import very little from Russia, so announcing a ban is pretty easy and doesn’t require much sacrifice. And by extension is not particularly impactful either, of course.
No, it was mainly symbolic for the US to do this…and, well, I would think everyone would get that. And, by extension, that it would not be symbolic for Europe, in fact, it would be extremely difficult bordering on impossible, so, why would anyone think they could or would simply follow the US on this, and when they didn’t that this was an obvious sign of a split between the US and Europe??
It seems like you’re asking us to explain why some random video made that claim. I haven’t seen anyone make the claim that this is becoming a split between the US and Europe anywhere in my news sources other than your post.
No, I was asking if anyone else had heard this and if I had missed something. If you haven’t heard anything on this, then you answered the question.
I watch a lot of non-American/non-western stuff, so I hear things that aren’t usually in our media. This was from one of the Indian channels I follow. ETA: And I think I know where this came from. I saw a report yesterday (I think it was on BBC) that the UK had urged other countries to join the US ban of oil and gas from Russia. I don’t know how serious the Brits are or aren’t about that, or how much of an impact it would have on their own oil and gas issues, but I think that’s where it was coming from. It’s hardly a split over Russia among the west, but I suspect that channel, in particular, is hoping for such a split to justify their own stance wrt Russia.
The UK does not have a big exposure to Russian Oil and Gas. The UK has its own Oil and Gas fields in the North Sea and there are pipelines from the Norwegian Oil Fields.
The European countries that have the most exposure to Russian gas are Germany and Italy in volume and they have a lot of work to do to cut consumption and find alternative supplies. It is complicated because there is an extensive pipeline network across Europe and LNG terminals for tankers. There are also electricity interconnectors between grids, a lot of natural gas is burnt in power stations.
I expect there is a lot of planning going on and major suppliers are being asked to pump more Oil and Gas. But the objective is clear. Russia has gone from being a reliable long term supplier of Oil and Gas to become a national security threat to its neighbours in Europe who are trying to mitigate their exposure to Russian gas. However, you cannot change infrastructure easily or quickly. It is a long term process. As far as Europe is concerned there will be a phased reduction, year on year and Russias income will go down year on year. Just a month ago, the strategy was to use Russian Natural gas to help make a transition from Nuclear power and Coal to renewable energy. Shutting down these power stations will be delayed and plans for more wind farms and solar projects will be brought forward.
I guess Russia will need to build more pipeline capacity to China. It is not a co-incidence that Russia and China met to do a long term supply deal last month. However, the pipeline they have is a very small fraction of the capacity of the gas network to Europe.
There have been crises like this before. Iran, for example.
The Ukrainian invasion by Russia is a major strategic mistake by Putin. He totally misjudged the international reaction and the level of Ukraine resistance. The economic consequences for Russia will be dire. But it will also cause economic disruption across the world. Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of wheat and seed oils. The cost of food and anything that uses Oil and Gas are going up around the world.
We live in a world inter-connected by trade and the invasion of Ukraine by Putin’s army will have a serious disruptive effect on the global economy. It will take a few years for trade flows to settle down.
However, the human drama in Ukraine is still unfolding and the full consequences are still emerging. International trade sanctions are just one part of that and are not really well understood by the public. Politicians, however, tend to be judged by the health of their national economy and they are well aware of how the money flows. The fear is that there will be a lot of poor people unable to pay for their heating and electricity bills. Fuel poverty is a big issue in colder climates.
This is a remarkably fast change of energy policy from the EU, which has 26 member countries, and an aggressive timescale.
However, Russia also exports many other commodities, as does Ukraine. Disrupted exports of grain, food oils and fertilizer are going to cause a lot problems, especially in Asia.
The REPowerEU plan aims to make Europe independent of Russian fossil fuels by 2030, but the initial efforts focus solely on gas.