Sports are the most common and popular drug of the general public. Cutting it all off might have a strange efficacy.
Well, outside of alcohol, which kind of goes hand in hand with sports anyway.
Info on Russian alcohol imports, for anyone connected to a sanctioning committee:
I’m torn on this one.
In many cultures, there are some things generally considered ‘vices’ that are truly The Only Catharsis for socioeconomically disadvantaged.
And that group tends to have the least influence on the body politic.
So … does that which overwhelmingly hurts people of minimal means … tend to result in a groundswell/uprising that overthrows an authoritarian oligarchy/kleptocracy, or … does it just enhance the misery of people who can – in many cases – be pretty miserable already ?
And does Russia have “free and fair elections” that could be affected by riling up the masses, anyway ?
This is going to be shocking for Russians, where this Eurovision competition is immensely popular.
There is a large part of the Russian population who only watch TV, which is strictly controlled by the state.
The World Cup Football qualifying matches are due to be played between Russia and Poland and Russia and the Czech Republic. They are unlikely to go ahead.
The 2022 European Champions League football match will now be transferred from St Peterburg to Paris.
Formula One Russian Grand Prix is now cancelled.
Of course this may backfire because Russian are very patriotic and defiant. Something they have in common with the Ukrainians.
Just enhances misery:
Why Sanctions on Russia Won’t Work
But the worst are my country’s Afghanistan sanctions that are responsible for mass starvation.
Paul Krugman has some ideas to try:
Laundered Money Could Be Putin’s Achilles’ Heel
Sanctions focused on the leadership will probably not work but are better than ones that cause widespread misery.
The one example of sanctions maybe working was South Africa, although, even there, opinion differs as to whether sanctions speeded or slowed the transition to democracy. Somehow I don’t see Putin as the next de Klerk.
That’s easily fixed. Start a new club.
UNNA: United Nations of Not Assholes.
Could be a small club.
And if it isn’t, it could be that a lot of the not-assholes are under an asshole security umbrella.
Then there’s the in and out. Might it be that the U.S. is only in when a Democrat is President, and the U.K. only when Labour controls parliament?
However, I might be unnecessarily negative above. If in a generous mood, one could say that said club already exists – and I think the U.S. is eligible to join:
League of Nations: Third Try
This is an interesting article on sanctions already imposed and their likely effects going forward.
I found it well worth the read.
I hope those who can impose sanctions are saving the best ones, in order to have some sort of leverage. If you immediately impose maximum sanctions, then there’s nothing to hold Russia back at all (not that they seem to be holding back, anyway).
I have a general question about sanctions in the current Russian context. With the vast land area of Russia, and its resources, and the dictatorial command over Russia that Putin has, would any sanctions really have any impact at all?
So he and his ilk are cut off from all foreign funds - so what? Couldn’t that go on indefinitely without affecting his standard of living? Or without affecting Russian military operations abroad?
Even if we assume that Russia is 100% self-reliant, there’s only so much value in self-reliance.
Imagine, for example, a guy who can wander through the woods indefinitely, scrounging up mushrooms, rabbit, etc. and living off the land. Cool as that may sound, it’s not as comfortable as ordering pizza from your computer while playing Candy Crush.
Getting from a position of being a person, on their own, to being a person with all the comforts of modern life requires a lot of coordination and cooperation with a lot of people and, basically, the more of them there are the faster things get better. You can split up and tackle challenges in parallel.
Russia can make a lot of its own hardware but a lot of it, it can’t. Once all their CPUs get old and start crumbling, they’re going to go backwards in technology. When their BMWs get old and start crumbling, they’ll all be driving Ladas. When they stop getting pineapples from Indonesia, they’ll be stuck eating yams.
Some of that loss, they’ll be able to recreate over time. But, in that while of just trying to get back what they already had, the rest of the world will continue to advance, working together, without them.
There really is no upside. When you’re smaller, you’re weaker and less comfortable. That’s all there is to it.
Fair enough, but how long will that take, and would it actually deter someone like Putin - and would it have had an impact on Nazi Germany?
But this essentially describes what everyday life was like in Russia during most of the Soviet era. Going back to it won’t be comfortable, but it’s entirely doable.
I don’t think they could do it…but then, I don’t think they will have to either. Countries like China are going to get them the things they can’t manufacture themselves and also help them by providing markets for their goods. If they were really cut off and back to how it was in the old Soviet Union (without even the eastern bloc countries as markets and manufacturing centers) they would be screwed today, IMHO. They simply don’t have the capabilities to meet all their needs even in the crappy, Soviet Union way they did before.
Cancel every student visa for every Russian student in Europe, the US, Canada, Commonwealth. Their education is now finished.
Inform every Russian tourist in any Western nation that they no longer have permission to be in your country, and have 24 hours to leave or face deportation proceedings (and detention while these are underway).
This won’t happen, but I can dream:
Every international sporting federation expels the Russian members.
FIFA
IOC
IAFF
International Skating Union
International Ski Federation
Etc.
Russians are no longer able to participate in international sports of any kind. Effective immediately.
Any player with Russian citizenship on a professional sports team (NHL has 38) are immediately cut and visas cancelled.
Well, if we are going to dream, then I’d add on that any country that does support Russia through trade, especially of sanctioned commodities or products will also have sanctions and similar things put on them. So, for instance, if the Chinese do in fact start buying a lot more natural gas, coal, oil and wheat, they, too will come under similar sanctions and have similar denied access to flights and sports venues. I actually think that, in the case of China, if the west was really serious, it would actually work fairly well. In the case of other countries who will be trying to sell to Russia despite the sanctions, it might or might not help, but it certainly would hurt them.
None of this is going to happen, but as you said ‘I can dream’…