I don’t think there has been a GD thread on this. I haven’t followed this story closely so a few questions:
1)How common is it for deadly,infectious viral diseases to pop out of nowhere? Are there any clues about where this disease came from?
What are the possibilities that this is an artificial disease? Perhaps some kind attack by a cult like Aum Shinrikyo or something accidentally released by some government lab.
2)How serious could this get? it appears to be air-borne and it’s incurable. It’s spread to as far as North America from East Asia. What is the worst-case scenario here? An epidemic that kills millions world wide?
The mortality rate is low by the standards of the great historical pandemics. (What is the infection rate, I wonder?)
Still something to be taken very seriously, even with a 2%-5% death rate. (Imagine 5 of every 100 people you know succumbing, to put it in perspective. Again, that’s without taking the infection rate into account, or the fact that the reported death rate is only among known cases. It is possible that milder cases are out there for which no treatment was sought, and which might have been mistaken for a common cold.)
Still, the great flu epidemic of 1919 started out as a milder version of itself before mutating into a more virulent form. So you never know.
As for being an artificial disease, highly unlikely. This seems to be following the pattern CDC types have long expected: a newly-emerging disease arising out of Southeast Asia, making the animal-to-human jump in a place where animals and humans are in close daily contact.
The mortality rate is low by the standards of the great historical pandemics. (What is the infection rate, I wonder?)
Still something to be taken very seriously, even with a 2%-5% death rate. (Imagine 5 of every 100 people you know succumbing, to put it in perspective. Again, that’s without taking the infection rate into account, or the fact that the reported death rate is only among known cases. It is possible that milder cases are out there for which no treatment was sought, and which might have been mistaken for a common cold.)
Still, the great flu epidemic of 1919 started out as a milder version of itself before mutating into a more virulent form. So you never know.
As for being an artificial disease, highly unlikely. This seems to be following the pattern CDC types have long expected: a newly-emerging disease arising out of Southeast Asia, making the animal-to-human jump in a place where animals and humans are in close daily contact.
Well, in Hong Kong, there has been so far 530 cases and 21 deaths in like 20 days. That’s less than 20 cases a day. Given the population of the city is 7m+, it is not a very infectious disease at all.
It is possible for an airborne disease-causing agent to become more lethal, but not when it requires a human or animal host.
Exactly. Actually, it’s 12 deaths (last time I heard - a few hours ago) and they are mainly old folk or people with serious (other) conditions. Nearly all the cases are concentrated in a handful of sources - medical facilities, families of victims, and one block in a housing estate (links on my blog - or google “amoy gardens”).
A doctor I know is pretty laid back. He says this is basically another variant of flu, and the human race will become largely immune in due course, give or take a few unfortunates. The main worry is that officials in the source of the virus - Mainland China - are retreating into communist damage-limitation mode and pretending there’s no problem. But even here in HK, it’s no big deal.
To American Citizens in the Shanghai Consular District
This is one of an occasional series of messages from the U.S. Embassy’s American Citizen Services unit to American Citizens registered with the U.S. Embassy in China.
The U.S. Department of State encourages American citizens traveling or residing abroad to familiarize themselves with the information available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) about Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). This Fact Sheet updates the March 21, 2003, version and reflects changes in the geographic spread of SARS cases and includes additional information. In light of the evolving nature of the SARS situation, American citizens should regularly consult the CDC website http://www.cdc.gov/ and the WHO website http://www.who.int/ for updates.
In Hanoi, Vietnam and Hong Kong, the appearance of SARS has had an impact on medical facilities, due to the closing and/or quarantine of hospitals and the spread of the disease to health care workers. Medical evacuation of SARS patients currently is not available by commercial carrier; additionally, the number of countries willing to accept SARS patients is very limited.
Prospective parents of adoptees from mainland China and Vietnam should consult the appropriate link on adoptions at the CDC website, http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/sars/adoption.htm.
In addition to Vietnam, Hong Kong, mainland China and Singapore, the CDC has received reports of outbreaks of SARS elsewhere in Asia and in Europe and North America, including Canada, the United States, Thailand, Germany, and Switzerland. Most cases appear to involve health-care workers caring for SARS patients and close family contacts. CDC is working closely with WHO and country partners to define the origin of this infection,
to track patterns of its transmission, and to determine effective
strategies for its control and prevention. Local health authorities should be notified of all suspected cases of SARS.
The CDC has identified the following three criteria, which must ALL be present, by which a potential SARS case may be identified, for those with the onset of illness after February 1, 2003:
–Fever greater than 380 C (100.40F), AND
–One or more signs or symptoms of respiratory illness including cough, shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, hypoxia (low oxygen in the blood), x-ray findings of pneumonia, or respiratory distress, AND
– One or more of the following within 2-7 days of the onset of
symptoms: Travel to mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, or Vietnam; and/or close contact*, with a person who has been infected with SARS (*close contact means having cared for, lived with, or having had direct contact with respiratory secretions (such as coughs and sneezes) and body fluids of a person with SARS).
The incubation period between exposure to infection and the development of symptoms appears to range from 2-7 days. For more specific information regarding case definition updates and empiric treatment clinicians should consult and monitor the CDC’s and WHO’s web sites.
Currently, prevention of new cases is based on individuals avoiding close contact with SARS-infected persons, as described above. Persons matching the case description for SARS should be promptly evaluated by medical personnel and, if indicated, admitted to a hospital. Persons suspected of having SARS should limit their interactions outside hospital settings.
Contact Information for the CDC:
Public Inquiries:
English (888) 246-2675
Spanish (888) 246-2857
TTY (866) 874-2646
Mon-Fri 8am-11pm EST
Sat-Sun 10am-8pm EST
“Perhaps you could suggest some kind of mechanism how this could happen?”
At a 3% mortality rate you need to infect about 30 million or so to get 1 million dead. In poorer, crowded countries the disease could spread very fast and there are several such large countries in the region. And of course the disease has spread rapidly in geographical terms. It could spread to Africa,India etc. Who knows how many it could infect if it goes out of control?
As for the possibility of a bio-terror attack it is speculation but not “wild” speculation. I am listening to NPR right now and the host asked the same question. The expert said that there was no evidence of this but didn’t say it was impossible.