A rather worrying if predictable development. With the Bush administration blundering around the Middle East and making threats against this and that regime and of "transforming" the region, how long before the Saudis decide that their alliance with the US is no longer useful and that it is time to obtain nuclear weapons to guarantee their security? Apparently they are considering it as an option. They probably don't have the technical know-how to make them but they do have the financial reserves to buy them from a nuclear power.
The obvious choice is Pakistan which has close religous and political ties with Saudia Arabia and which is desperately short of foreign exchange. The Saudis wouldn’t necessarily have to go openly nuclear. They could simply keep the bombs in the basement and go open if there is a crisis.
Questions:
If Pakistan chose to sell nuclear bombs to the Saudis would it be possible to interdict them? I am guessing, no.
If the US learnt of a such a deal being planned what could it do to prevent it?
If such an exchange were to happen would the US be able detect it ? What could the US do about it?
We don’t want to piss off the Saudis. They provide us with a great deal of our oil, and despite their rather mercurial attitude, they do kind of count as “allies”… and we aren’t real overequipped with allies in that region.
On the other hand, the idea of equipping a Muslim fundamentalist nation with nuclear weapons appeals to me very little.
It would appeal to Israel even less. After all, during the first Gulf War, Saddam Hussein launched multiple missile attacks against Israel, just to try to get them to fight back so all the other Gulf countries would charge in out of hatred for Israel.
While the current Saudi regime is somewhat saner than Saddam Hussein ever was… I suspect Israel would be willing to take some pretty drastic steps to prevent ANY Arab country from obtaining nukes…
Ah but the difference here is that Saudi Arabia would probably buy the bombs off the shelf and store them in some secret location. No reactor to bomb like Osirak . Even if the Saudis declared nuclear status there wouldn’t be much anyone could do to destroy their bombs. And btw it was the 1991 Gulf War rather than the Osirak bombing which really stopped Saddam from obtaining nukes.
Since the begining of the year I´ve been thinking that one of the main reasons for the war was to A) get out of Saudia Arabia, and B) Not having so much dependence from Saudi Arabia oil the USA would be in position to put pressure on that country, Saudia Arabia is not the kind of ally one wants, it´s just a very nasty bed fellow. Saudi Arabia sees that comming, so nuclear weapons look like a jolly good idea to avoid the USA wrath.
Having said that I think there´s next to zero chances of Pakistan selling nuclear weapons to anybody, just look to what happened to Iraq for the idea that it may have had a weapons program that **could[/] have lead to Iraq selling or giving away WMD…
North Korea would be a more sensible option, fork a big heap of cash there and I don´t have much doubt the little Kim would be more than willing to sell whatever he has.
[quote]
While the current Saudi regime is somewhat saner than Saddam Hussein ever was… I suspect Israel would be willing to take some pretty drastic steps to prevent ANY Arab country from obtaining nukes…[\quote]
As well they should.
But, I do not see the Saudis buying nukes. While they supply nearly 10% of the world’s oil, the US is not overtly dependant on their attitudes to keep the prices down at home. The Saudis, not being completely stupid, probably know this. With that in mind, allowing nukes into what the US considers a fundementalist society is a dicey proposition.
My previous post was in reply to Wank-ka , specifically his point about Israel doing something to prevent a nuclear Saudi Arabia.
J Chance,
I agree that the Bush administration has increased the incentives for countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia to obtain nuclear weapons. Still the US and most of the world does have an interest in preventing these countries from going nuclear.
I thought the purpose of invading Iraq was to teach a lesson to the rest of the countries in the area and they were supposed to shit their pants and fall in line at the command of the US. I guess it isn’t quite working out that way. Maybe the USA just managed to disturb a hornets’ nest.
“Having said that I think there´s next to zero chances of Pakistan selling nuclear weapons to anybody, just look to what happened to Iraq for the idea that it may have had a weapons program that **could[/] have lead to Iraq selling or giving away WMD…”
The big difference is that Pakistan already has nuclear weapons. This sharply reduces any military options the US has towards it. And the US won’t necessarily be able to detect a nuclear transfer in the first place.
Pakistan might not continue to be an US ally too… its dictator is well and strong now… but a bit of islamic radicalism and we could see a coup d’etat… one involving nukes in the hands of radical islamic leaders. Selling some to Saudi Arabia would be done pretty easily.
In the end I think the Saudis are trying to scare the americans a bit into pressuring Israel. Not my choice of tactics… but who knows.