So like America. 
I agree with your prediction of a rightward shift in British politics. I can imagine a decade or more of progressive policies in an independent Scotland. While we have oil revenue the wolves will be kept from the door. As oil revenue decreases watch for the shift to the right.
More like Scotland.
This is what I’d hate to see. A decade or so of unsustainably high public spending fuelled by oil and gas revenue, while the SNP “prove” how successful an independent Scotland can be. But that won’t last forever. I hope the money will be well invested if the answer is “yes”.
A moment of cynicism, if you’ll indulge: How much of the sentiment in Scotland for independence is fueled by North Sea oil?
According to the likes of PJen, SNP types are only motivated by a sincere dedication to a progressive, left-wing, EU-approved worldview which the rest of the UK are too vulgar to even comprehend. They are certainly not motivated by anything as crass as money.
I think it is motivated by oil and gas to some extent. There’s obviously the thinking that sharing it among 5m works out better for those 5m than sharing it among 64m. Some (such as Salmond) look to Norway enviously, as they have been saving their oil income, rather than using it lower taxes as has been done here. I too wish we had had the good sense of Norway, rather than taking the obvious, short-term, right-wing popularity contest route. Salmond says he would set up such a fund for Scotland, but we’re all used to promises like that with get reneged upon once someone actually tries to make it work and realizes it’s not quite so simple. He’s also talking about increasing public spending.
There is a slogan you occasionally hear that says “It’s Scotland’s oil”. I’m not sure how true or fair that view is, when you consider that it hasn’t been Scotland alone investing in it, but both sides seem to assume the majority of it would go to Scotland in the event of a vote for independence.
We are talking of a bunch of progressive politicians who have had little real independent fiscal responsibility so far. The first few election cycles will not be campaigned on fiscal prudence, not after so many promises have been hinted at . We will not go on a spending spree of gigantic proportions but we will plod along with extensive public spending. Much of it frittered away. The SNP seem to have fallen in love with renewables. If renewables fail much of our money will have been wasted.
To a substantial degree. I dont think it entirely coincidental that the rise in the SNP’s fortunes in the 1970’s came at the time when North Sea oil came online. If around 45% of our voters are in favour of independence you can be sure that without oil revenue this 45% figure would drop. How far it would fall is debateable; at a rough guesstimate a minumum of 5-10% in my opinion.
That particular slogan was much more of a feature during the 1970s, particularly in the two 1974 General Elections and in the run-up to the 1979 referendum. Of course, the same message is there today, it’s just not quite so blatant.
Please provide a cite for where I said that. I talked merely about the thrust of both SNP Government and the previous LibLab Administration which have been decidedly social democratic and liberal. Given the electorate and the electoral system, Scotland would never have a majority rightist government.
Most of the oil is in Scottish waters. None of it is extracted by the UK; it is licenced by the UK for extraction by oil companies with the skill to do so. This would continue, but with the licence money going to Scotland. To reinforce, the UK has no interest or capital invested in the North Sea - this is provided by the companies. Governments merely collect licence fees and taxes.
And Norway isn’t a good example for another reason - Statoil is majority owned by the Norwegian government, so the Norwegian sovereign fund gets a big chunk of the profits, not just the money from licences and taxes.
Here’s more on Balmoral - not too shabby!: Balmoral Castle - Wikipedia
On the other hand, investing the money in renewable energy could turn out to be best thing Scotland could do. As fossil fuel prices increase and nuclear power goes further out of fashion, a country capable of meeting most of its energy needs through cheap, renewable power could feel like a homeowner who just paid off their mortgage. Not that that’s my position exactly - I don’t know enough about it.
Then it sounds like Scotland should indeed get whatever is on its continental shelf. It still feels a bit like cheating, though.
Is that as bad a decision by the UK government as it sounds?
The UK government held a majority stake in British Petroleum until 1979 (surprise, surprise) and sold the rest by 1987. Norway created Statoil in 1972 to benefit Norway. It’s not for me to second guess the free market and say who was right!
Never’s a long time. the Unionist party was dominant in Scotland from the turn of the century to the 1950s, and after that, the Tories, while a minority, had a decent presence in Scotland until into the Thatcher years, when some of the actions of her government (like imposing the Poll Tax in Scotland early) made them unpopular.
If Scotland DOES become independent, a right wing party won’t win the next election, or the one after that, but ten years from now, or twenty years from now, who knows, especially because an independent Scotland will make the SNP, its goal achieved, lose much of its purpose, and because the Tories, or whatever the Scottish equivalent will be, without ties to the English party, won’t be seen as “English”. Actual Scottish conservativism, which isn’t really insubstantial, will gel into a party of its own.
A right wing government will be elected(or more likely forced upon) the Scottish people roughly when the oil money runs out, either slightly before or after. A right wing party will resurge before then, but probably with not too much electoral power. An independent Scotland’s oil revenue will be about 5-10% of government income per year. As oil revenues dry up just watch public services be cut. Scotland’s public sector spending will become a slow motion version of Greek public spending cuts.
Who can predict beyond a generation or so. Oil may reduce in volume, but will also increase in price making currently expensive extraction less prohibitive. Oil aside, Scotland is going to be a major power provider even without oil have a unique concentration of wind, hydro, sea and estuary tidal power and also massive water supplies as global warming continues.
Who can tell how an independent economy might flourish if low corporation tax leads to gradual reindustrialisation. And to re- population with an open door policy to the EU after rump UK becomes semi-detached (Scotland is land rich and population poor and needs immigration.)
Regarding left/right split, Scotland has always been more communal, more social welfare friendly and less conservative with a small c than England. This is likely to continue.
We shall see, but neither side can realistically predict the future.
I believe we can predict the future with a reasonable degree of confidence. We know how democracies work; we know how social democratic policies work. We know that politicians tend to spend money now and pay the bills later. We know what happens when a social democratic State runs out of money. These are not unknowns.
The main unknown is the economic policy of an independent Scotland and the success of renewable energy. I rather doubt we shall get a pro business government; at least not to any great degree. We’ll likley get the usual tinkering around the edges. Again, unless our politics has become pro business all of a sudden we will get the same old big government regulations that stifle business and innovation.
As for renewables im not convinced. Renewables are in part ideologically driven. Im wary when Government ideology, government subsidy, and unproven technology come together. We cannot predict the future of such experiments with certainty, but we can look at past experiments and say their success has been pretty poor.
Well, now you have come out as a died in the wool Tory, I can understand your views.
Some renewables such as windfarms are doubtful, but Hydro (which Scotland has a considerable amount of reality and potentiality) and potential supply of expensive water if global warming continues to bring drought to England and other more southern countries comes into the equation.
I am probably older than you and can remember the MacMillan, Home and Heath Governments when the Tories were considerably to the left of the current Labour Party. Things change over the generations and are difficult to predict. Each nation needs to take its chance. With the security of being part of the EU (which Scotland will be and rump UK may not) adds more certainty of economic survival.
Here is The Economist predicting defeat for the SNP six months before their biggest ever triumph in 2011.