Ten weeks after the Referendum result and a few days after the Smith Commission reported, where does the continued informal campaign for independence stand.
Over the weekend I read three blogs or commentary pieces, two from the Right- Spectator and Telegraph and one from the left- Guardian, that suggested that we are headed towards an Everendum- continued campaigning and possible re-vote on Independence.
As expected, the Vow is nowhere near the Home Rule that was mentioned by Gordon Brown with many essential elements such as Corporation Tax, welfare and pensions, and management of Oil in Scottish waters retained in Westminster. The SNP are happy as far as the devolution goes, but seriously unhappy as far as it doesn’t.
SNP membership is due to hit 100,000 making it the largest per capita party in the UK. People who supported the YEs campaign together with those that did not but were uncertain now seem to form a bloc of the electorate who want true home rule at least and maybe even represent a clear majority for Independence.
Labour seem to be in melt-down in Scotland with the SNP looking likely in 2015 to steal up to and maybe more than half of current Labour Westminster seats, and probably also win some LibDem and possibly even my own area which is Conservative. The SNp must be almost certain to retain their current single party administration in 2016.
With an SNP Scottish Government, a majority of the population in favour of massive further devolution at least, and with the SNP possibly being power brokers in Westminster in six months, how can further devolution possibly be avoided?
I see an interesting few years ahead for Scotland and for the rest of the UK. What is certainly true is that the Referendum has certainly not put Nationalism to bed for a generation- it has barely even taken a nap!
Are there Scots who express that conditions in today’s Scotland are such that they really think they will leave, go to the states, Canada, Australia, etc.? I haven’t met any. There is a strong urge in the hearts of many Scots to have an independent nation. Many Scots relish telling the stories of atrocities by English, or by other clans provoked by the English… Many still yearn for having their own Kingdom, let alone their own country…
But, what I think I hear and see, largely, are people wanting to use the threat of independence to procure added political power. the more things change, the more they stay the same, from the 13th century and forward to today, the English offering one sort of bounty or another to individuals in Scotland, who, in turn, mollify and moderate the pressure to toss the English out.
Or it might be more to do with a massive difference in political position between England and Scotland, England being overwhelmingly right of centre and Scotland being overwhelmingly left of centre.
I just wish the Nats had won. It would have been so amusing to see the SNP having to negotiate with falling oil prices, hitting their financial estimates for a six.
But federalism implies that there will always remain certain competences at the central government level. If it’s all ‘devolved’, then that’s not federalism, it’s independence. I get that the SNP isn’t interested in federalism anyway, seeing it as merely a means towards independence, but I like how they decline to define what they would consider an acceptable degree of local rule that still recognizes a role for Westminster. The SNP are not a constructive voice in this matter.
I strongly suspect that Home Rule- everything but foreign affairs and the armed forces (with a commitment to remove nuclear weapons) would buy off the Nationalists for at least a generation. What has been offered now is going to be seen as totally inadequate on months rather than years.
Predicting future oil prices is difficult but as the recession recedes in Europe and China accelerates again, prices are likely to rise back towards their recent average.
Pjen, I highly recommend that you make a leisurely visit to Quebec, Canada. Their culture is dominated by people who are obsessed with identity & language politics, look to Europe over N. America, hate the “Anglos” and their allies, feel victimized by issues going back to centuries-old battles, and they are in a “neverendum” that the SNP can only dream of (the separatists got 49.4% or something in their referendum back in 1991, and a separatist party has been in power most of the rest of the time) and they’ve eagerly jumped head-first into embracing all the exact same left-wing causes that you’ve posted about here. If you don’t mind learning French, you would surely find yourself absolutely surrounded by kindred spirits, more so than in Scotland.
Each day oil prices remain at multi year lows the cause of independence takes another hit. The SNP were always eager to dismiss the No campaign’s facts and figures. Only a month or so after the referendum it is the Yes campaign’s figures that look completely inaccurate. The SNP’s “Scotland can go it alone” and the anti austerity messages have come undone. I will not say this puts an end to the calls for a referendum. However, it probably means the calls for a referendum will be half hearted for the forseeable future.
She will have to return back in time, for the PQ has collapsed in influence in the last elections and the liberal economic party which is anti-independence but pro sovereignty and business, Coalition Avenir Québec has almost matched them in seats.
Admittedly it would be very difficult for Scotland with oil prices as they are currently if they remain at that level, but revenue is not directly correlated with current spot prices. Also it is a mistake to believe that the current spot price low will remain the same over any period of tome. Oil prices generally decline during a recession and increase when growth starts again. Predicting commodity prices is extremely uncertain.
The sentiment for Independence is not merely financial, but also political and emotional.
Future prices are difficult to forecast, but not impossible. The price of oil looks to be headed towards the mid to low range for the time being. It would be silly to predict oil prices will never be $110 a barrel again, but with the supply of oil increasing those prices look less and less likely. Barring a geopolitical meltdown your average barrel of oil will more likely be nearer the $70-80 range than the $100+ range.
I agree that the sentiment for Independence is different for different people. For some its emotional and for some its economic or political. For those whom its an economic case then their cause has gotten just a little bit harder. For those who were fighting on an anti austerity political cause its just got a little bit harder too.
Actually I saw a slew of interviews with Scots indicating they did feel a sentiment for independence, but voted against it, for less-sentimental reasons. “My heart says yes, my head says no,” and other such summaries.