SCOTUS hears the case on Trump's eligibility on February 8, 2024

Maybe it will be a case of finishing strong.

Stevenson certainly sounds more confident in her arguments than the previous Colorado lawyer, that’s for sure.

You all know I want whatever the decision is, that it applies to every state, but damn Stevenson is convincing me that it should be up to the states because the reality is every state does it differently.

oh yeah, she pushed back on alito, where murray folded.

That’s all, Folks.

I hate to say it, because he’s acting for Trump, but Mitchell’s rebuttal was good. He’s citing jurisprudence, poking holes in Murray’s arguments.

This case is a reason why we need federal regulation of elections.

Murray lost this case for Colorado. Gave too many Justices an out.

i agree, mitchell did well, murray did not do well, stephenson did well.

Ultimately, if they punt this case and demand CO put him back on the primary ballot (which is almost certainly what will happen), we will be right back here after Trump wins.

I think it’s likely at least one state will attempt to disqualify him either by having their legislature refuse to approve the electors or some other mechanism. We will also possibly have multiple objections in Congress.

At the end of the day, it seems to me, SCOTUS will have to determine whether Trump committed insurrection as defined by the 14th. They can punt for now, but unless they flatly say that Section 3 doesn’t apply to the president, they will get this question before them some other way, either for general election ballots in some other state or after the general election if Trump wins in a state that is controlled by Democrats (MI, PA, NV all come to mind).

I agree that Mitchell probably carried the day. I hate that guy, but he sure is good at his job.

So, what do you think the split will be? 6-3?

Look at my suggestion above. The State passes a law that an elector cannot vote for a candidate that the state determines committed insurrection.

CNN is cutting back and forth between a panel and Trump. Trump, of course, cannot stay on the topic of the court case—he’s blathering away about Ukraine and Israel and illegal immigrants and his polls in between brief mentions of the court case.

The director in the control room must be going crazy.

Now Trump is taking questions, and being drowned out by passing aircraft.

Every state doing it differently is kind of a consequence for having a federalist system.

But that is different than different standards for age, residency, citizenship and insurrection.

Where does it go now? Colorado was weak today.

Morning’s hearing is over.
Trump in FL asked to respond:
1 political speech about Middle East
2 rambling statement amounting to “the 2020 election was stolen.”
3 he has immunity

I said yesterday that if they punt and risk having it back before them in Novermber after Trump genuinely gets more votes they really are asking for trouble; but a reasonable response to that was that maybe they just cannot come to any decisive consensus now, and they will just punt and hope they never have to rule again on the matter. If so, let’s hope that makes them more likely to deny cert on the immunity case, since that would give two possible outs for them - prompt trial in DC makes it more likely that he will just lose the election and make the 14A issue moot, and more likely that he will actually be convicted of something that can be argued to constitute insurrection sooner rather than later.

I think the best way to punt for them is the idea that a state can decide state eligibility under A14(3) but the Feds need to decide Federal office eligibilty. Act of Congress, federal court case, something like that but clearly not SCOTUS as they do not have original jurisdiction to decide if Trump committed insurrection. So until that point, Colorado (and Maine et alii) have to keep him on the ballot.

Michael Steele just predicted 9-0 against Colorado.

I always thought this was a long shot, because SCOTUS would have to say yes on too many variables:

  1. 14A applies to the President
  2. 14A is self-executing
  3. 14A doesn’t require a criminal conviction
  4. Trump committed insurrection
  5. States have a unilateral right to apply 14A
  6. Colorado applied 14A correctly

I suspect they’ll punt on the basis of 2 or 5, without clarifying how or when 14A might apply.