If it is overturned, it will be because the government has failed to articulate any limiting principle for the commerce clause.
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Nonetheless, l’ll be a pessimist and say upheld, 5-4: Kagan, Sotomayor, Ginsberg, Breyer and Roberts. Roberts’ opinion will provide the limiting principle the government’s case failed to; essentially a “here and no further” passage.
If they get to 6 that way, I agree she’d be it.