SDMB Fantasy Baseball 2007

Kiros · March 19, 2007, 3:56am

Four more, since I have to wake up in six hours:

rackensack diamonds

(7) David Ortiz
(34) Hanley Ramírez
(47) Brian McCann
(74) C.C. Sabathia
(87) Bob Wickman
(114) Torii Hunter
(127) Barry Zito
(154) Joel Zumaya
(167) Ian Kinsler
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(194) 	Austin Kearns
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(207) 	Akinori Iwamura
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(234) 	Greg Maddux
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(247) 	Andre Ethier
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(274) 	Mike Jacobs
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(287) 	Nelson Cruz
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(314) 	José Bautista
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(327) 	Jon Rauch
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(354) 	Tom Gorzelanny
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(367) 	Melky Cabrera
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(394) 	Tony Graffanino
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(407) 	Jason Bartlett
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(434) 	Gregg Zaun
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(447) 	José Castillo
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(474) 	Ambiorix Burgos
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Overview: Fun little offense-heavy team we’ve got here. A contract north of $100 million still only gets you the 7th round in our super-long draft, sorry. Joel Zumaya getting picked well before the guy he’s setting up for. Did I mention that this team concentrated on guys who can swing the bat (in addition to all manner of rare consonants)?

Strengths: This team is a pretty safe bet to be near the top of all of the offensive categories, even with the Japanese import at 3B being an enormous question mark. There’s some danger of regression with McCann or Hanley, but there’s just as much of a chance that Jacobs and Cruz will rake. And if any of the Yankee outfielders go down, all of a sudden Melky has a full time job in the middle of that stacked lineup again. He has two starters who know how to throw a baseball with the arm attached to the port side of their bodies, and we all know how much that helps a rotation… oh, wait, people only freak out about that sort of stuff in Real Life? It seems silly if you ignore what arm they throw the ball with and just look at how well they pitch? Who knew?! <random pitching rant /off>

Weaknesses: As stacked as that offense can potentially be, you’d think the pitching would have suffered a little more than it actually did. There are so many ways that I lack faith in Barry Zito, but frankly, moving from the AL to the NL West will probably make him a Cy Young candidate all on its own. Maddux is a bit of an issue just because he’s been pitching since I was in elementary school, but again, he’s in the right place to continue thriving. This team obviously needs two more starters very badly, and that’s probably the most glaring hole. Also, it’s worth noting that there is virtually no positional flexibility at all among his core hitters.

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: Love Jacobs in the 14th. Not a fan of McCann in the 3rd in retrospect - this team is offense heavy enough that just sticking Zaun in at C would have been fine - but it’s hard to really know that you’re going to be grabbing value hitting all the way through the draft in the third round. Still, imagine this team with Zaun in as the C and Brandon Webb… freakin’ dangerous, that.

Preliminary Grade: A-

The Warning Trackers

(8) Joe Mauer
(33) Paul Lo Duca
(48) Dontrelle Willis
(73) Felipe López
(88) Richie Sexson
(113) Tom Gordon
(128) Adrián Béltre
(153) Brandon Phillips
(168) Adam LaRoche
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(193) 	Mark Prior
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(208) 	Joe Borowski
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(233) 	Chris Duffy
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(248) 	José Contreras
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(273) 	Geoff Jenkins
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(288) 	Kei Igawa
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(313) 	Jason Lane
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(328) 	Luis González
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(353) 	Pat Neshek
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(368) 	Juan Encarnación
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(393) 	Eude Brito
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(408) 	Luke Hochevar
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(433) 	James Hoey
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(448) 	Mark Kotsay
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(473) 	Jeff Conine
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Overview: The first of the auto-draft teams, and it shows. This team is in huge trouble from top to bottom. And I’m not sure what kind of rankings would entice the Yahoo! engine to grab Lo Duca in the second round after taking Mauer in the first. Not the worst team in the world, but those early picks definitely crippled it enough that the owner has some work in front of him.

Strengths: For all that Mauer was 10-20 picks before I’d have taken him, he’s an obvious strength. The offense really has the potential to turn out at least decent in all of the counting categories. Gordon and Borowski leaves a much better closer situation than most teams, and Neshek is potentially huge as a bullpen guy. Frankly, the more that I look at it, for all that the back to back catchers to start was ridiculous, I’d still take that offense over a number of the live-drafted teams. Unfortunately, that leads to…

Weaknesses: Those starters… ouch. The general pitching depth has problems. Encarnacion is injured, isn’t he? This team is going to have some problems with the rate stats on offense and with the counting stats in pitching. The lack of pitching alone is, unfortunately, probably enough to cripple this team from the start.

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: Love LaRoche in the ninth. Obviously hate both C picks early, but for something a little less obvious, Prior in the 10th was a reach as well (Hey, I only said it’d be a LITTLE less obvious).

Preliminary Grade: D+

Fat Bottomed Girls

(9) Chase Utley
(32) Derrek Lee
(49) Brandon Webb
(72) Carlos Guillén
(89) Nick Swisher
(112) Jeff Francoeur
(129) Randy Johnson
(152) Nick Markakis
(169) Chad Tracy
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(192) 	Todd Jones
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(209) 	Dave Bush
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(232) 	Jonathan Broxton
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(249) 	Dave Roberts
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(272) 	Justin Duchscherer
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(289) 	Dan Wheeler
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(312) 	Mike Lowell
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(329) 	Jeff Francis
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(352) 	Matt Garza
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(369) 	Josh Bard
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(392) 	Frank Catalanotto
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(409) 	Seth McClung
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(432) 	Julián Tavárez
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(449) 	Scott Thorman
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(472) 	Liván Hernández
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Overview: Like I said, I’m very happy with how my draft turned out, much more so than last year. Maybe it was the Queen karma. As soon as I saw the 9th spot, I was hoping Utley would drop to me; when he did, it set the tone for the rest of the draft. I love being able to pick for value and fill in spots where I want to, rather than having to deal with position scarcity and runs, especially in a league this big; getting Utley and Guillen early without reaching let me do exactly that.

Strengths: Not only can my team do a lot of things, we can do a lot of things well. The offense is decent even without D Lee; any sort of return to form (even his 2000-2004 .875 OPS never-miss-games form, not even the 2005 monster, though that would of course be nice too) will make my offense both well rounded and dangerous. I have some good upside potential on that side of the ball with Markakis and Francouer (who actually took a few walks near the end of last year), and frankly if Bard can just manage to not drag down my OPS I’ll be perfectly happy with whatever he gives me. Like I said during the draft, every year I take Dave Roberts at least half a dozen rounds after Podsednik goes, and every year he keeps me in the middle of the SB pack. I’m pretty happy with my pitching, too, though obviously there’s a lot more danger and risk there. Except for Webb, who is just a stud, and my setup guys, who are also all solid.

Weaknesses: To put it bluntly: I have three-fifths of the Arizona Diamondbacks starting rotation on my roster. This doesn’t exactly inspire me with faith and hope. I waited on a closer because guys that I had targetted for value (Fuentes, Saito, Borowski) kept going a few picks before I wanted to take them. There is a pretty good chance that one out of Bush, Francis, and Livan will not perform up to potential, so I’ll probably need to grab another starter (especially depending on how long it takes Garza to get a job in Minny). My K/IP is lower across the board than I traditionally like to have. I am hoping that Seth McClung holds the closer job in TB to get me some cheap saves.

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: A lot of guys just sort of slid to me, and I was able to take them right where I wanted to, and right before others would have. I might have to be a homer and say that Lowell was my favorite, though, because he will provide VERY serviceable IF numbers for the 16th round. Randy was probably my least favorite; the early 7th round was a flurry of queue-stealing picks, and I couldn’t come up with anything better after Beltre got scooped from me by the autodraft, so I just took the safe old guy.

Preliminary Grade: A-

Winnowill’s Whiners

(10) Jimmy Rollins
(31) Brian Roberts
(50) Carlos Delgado
(71) Billy Wagner
(90) Cole Hamels
(111) Kenji Johjima
(130) Coco Crisp
(151) José Valverde
(170) Mark Teahen
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(191) 	Brian Giles
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(210) 	Javier Vázquez
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(231) 	Brad Wilkerson
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(250) 	Wes Helms
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(271) 	Rafael Betancourt
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(290) 	David Dellucci
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(311) 	David Ross
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(330) 	Bob Howry
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(351) 	Shawn Hill
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(370) 	Marcus Thames
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(391) 	Kevin Kouzmanoff
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(410) 	Manny Corpas
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(431) 	Jon Lieber
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(450) 	Greg Norton
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(471) 	Chris Denorfia
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Overview: Every year, it seems like I am going “huh?” to a lot of Winnowill’s picks… and every year, she puts a coherent team together that ends up not being at all bad. This year is no different. You couldn’t pay me to start off a team with Rollins and Roberts, but I’m pretty sure when you put the whole package together, it all works… the offense, at least.

Strengths: Some very solid value picks to support that core middle infield leads to an offense that is very capable. In addition, Crisp and Wilkerson are both good bets for improvement this year, and given the number of teams that need help at catcher, there could be some good trade bait there. Wagner is a stud, and Valverde is a risk, but oh, what reward he can be when he has an “on” year. Solid in both steals and power.

Weaknesses: Two big issues here: the counting stats on offense, and the starting pitching. Some platoon guys to go with some guys who just don’t put up a ton of runs/RBI could leave this team wanting in those categories. Looking at the guys who throw the ball, either Lieber or Hamels might well be the odd man out among the six Philly starters. Even if they both get rotation spots, this team is still two starters short of where it needs to be. Then again, looking at the teams I’ve done so far, who isn’t?

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: A lot of great value picks up and down, but Wagner was taken at exactly the right spot. My least favorite is probably starting with back to back middle infielders, but like I said, the offense works anyways.

Preliminary Grade: B-

Tazmanian_Devil · March 19, 2007, 10:13am

Sorry I wasn’t able to make it. My computer at home is having some issues with dialing into the internet. A new area code was put out in my area, and now I have to dial the area code along with the number, even if I’m just calling across the street. Unfortunately my modem hasn’t been corrected yet, and at this point, I’m confined to checking in from work when I can. I’m hoping to get this resolved sometime this week so I won’t have these problems.

Kiros · March 19, 2007, 11:19pm

Formatting is a bit different because I typed this up at work and had to copy/paste in and out of an email to myself, and I’m too lazy to fix it all, but here are the rest:

Out On Waveland

(11) Carlos Beltrán
(30) Vernon Wells
(51) Chone Figgins
(70) Gary Sheffield
(91) Todd Helton
(110) Jeff Kent
(131) Justin Verlander
(150) Iván Rodríguez
(171) Nick Johnson
(190) Eric Byrnes
(211) Jason Varitek
(230) Bartolo Colón
(251) Mike González
(270) Francisco Liriano
(291) Troy Tulowitzki
(310) Jake Westbrook
(331) Orlando Hernández
(350) Pedro Feliciano
(371) Jamie Moyer
(390) Jordan Tata
(411) Dustin Moseley
(430) Jamey Carroll
(451) Aaron Hill
(470) Ryan Klesko

Overview: Another auto-draft team, much to Omni’s chagrin. Unfortunately for him, he got screwed pretty hard on this one. He does have some serious depth at 1B and C that he can use to make some trades and fix it up a bit, but probably not enough to fill in all the spots that he needs to fill in. As a bonus to degree of difficulty, he gets to rely on a few key guys coming back from injury, and he has no one at all with 3B eligibility. Definitely some work to do here.

Strengths: Obviously, his depth on offense, particularly at 1B and C. Also, he’s got a couple of great foundation picks in Beltran and Wells – unfortunately, they both play CF as well, and that might be a spot to deal out of. Might be the fastest team in the league. Potential to have a very solid lineup if he can get a 3B.

Weaknesses: His pitching staff is questionable from top to bottom – Verlander poised for a potential sophomore slump, Colon coming off of injury, Liriano as a wasted pick, Moyer at three hundred and forty-one years old, El Duque at whatever age we decide that he is today. One elite setup guy, but no closers to speak of. If everything with his staff breaks right, he can aspire to have mediocre pitching. Obviously going to have to get himself a 3B somewhere, and it’s not really that deep a position this year.

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: Helton and Nick Johnson were both good picks where he got them, for what they will do to your team’s OBP (if they’re healthy). Liriano was obviously a wasted pick by the autodraft, and it picking every CF, 1B, and C possible probably doesn’t make Omni too thrilled.

Overall Grade: D

chitwood

(12) Carl Crawford
(29) Miguel Tejada
(52) Paul Konerko
(69) John Lackey
(92) J.J. Putz
(109) Howie Kendrick
(132) Raúl Ibañez
(149) Takashi Saito
(172) Edwin Encarnación
(189) A.J. Burnett
(212) Milton Bradley
(229) Russell Martin
(252) Ian Snell
(269) Scott Hatteberg
(292) Kenny Lofton
(309) Matt Capps
(332) Xavier Nady
(349) Derrick Turnbow
(372) Ryan Madson
(389) José López
(412) Ryan Church
(429) Brandon McCarthy
(452) Ricky Nolasco
(469) Joey Gathright
Overview: With a few pitching moves, this team is the league favorite out of the ones I’ve looked at so far. Seriously, this team is probably a couple of pitchers short, but it’s a lot less short than most of the teams we’ve got here.

Strengths: The offense is stacked from top to bottom. If you’re going to bet on a young kid to come through, Howie Kendrick is as good a guy to be betting on as any. Even the lower tier guys aren’t OPS-killers. Will be extremely solid in steals with Crawford and Lofton. If Crazy Milton can get enough ABs and if Ibanez comes anywhere close to what he did last year, this offense will be just fine – not to mention the potential of having Ryan Church there to bring in if he finds a manager who will play him. One of the only teams in the league with two stud closers, and Lackey and Burnett could both be top starters if things fall the right way. A couple of more potential places to find saves in Capps and Turnbow, and if they both work out, he has another strength to potentially trade out of.

Weaknesses: Hurting for SP depth a little, but not really THAT badly compared to a lot of the teams in this league. A few guys who will probably get some holds, but no elite guys there. Maybe a little too much of the offense resting on guys who at have at least some small question marks.

Favorite and Least Favorite Draft Picks: I can’t tell you how much I love Burnett in the 10th – if he can stay healthy, he will WAY outperform that spot. McCarthy is also a potential steal that late. The weakest pick is probably either Kendrick or Hatteberg, and frankly those are both guys who will help this team, and in no way at all bad picks. I’m not sure Kent wouldn’t help more than Kendrick, but that’s really looking for something to complain about.

Preliminary Grade: A

Onan The Barbarian

(13) Miguel Cabrera
(28) Andruw Jones
(53) Joe Nathan
(68) Dan Uggla
(93) Julio Lugo
(108) Rocco Baldelli
(133) Mike Mussina
(148) Hank Blalock
(173) Ervin Santana
(188) Ray Durham
(213) Ryan Dempster
(228) Josh Johnson
(253) Shea Hillenbrand
(268) Mark Buehrle
(293) Johnny Estrada
(308) Preston Wilson
(333) Emil Brown
(348) Woody Williams
(373) Chad Qualls
(388) Luis Ayala
(413) Tim Redding
(428) Mike Lamb
(453) Tony Clark
(468) Chris Shelton
Overview: Another autodraft team. The rankings were set up a bit more coherently here, but it still made a bunch of the mistakes that you expect the autodraft to make. As a result, we get a team that only had a few high-value picks, and had a lot of spots where it lost some potential advantage… though frankly the overall package isn’t really that bad, and at least has some potential to go somewhere.

Strengths: This team has a competitive warm body in every position of note, which is an achievement for an auto-draft. Plenty of power, a deceptively good pitching base, and two guys who will pick up saves. Mike Lamb is a deceptively valuable bench guy in this league on a year to year basis. Three guys who are worthy of using at 2B, the weakest overall position this year, leaves some definite room for trades with teams that were less fortunate.

Weaknesses: Speed issues, obviously – this team is at least one SB guy short of seriously competing there. Durham and Uggla are both likely candidates to drop off last year’s performance, and a bunch of the other guys are no sure things either. Josh Johnson is injured to begin the season, isn’t he? A closer with Dempster’s ratios is always a huge red flag. Going to have issues with Ks and potentially WHIP on the pitching side, and could easily have OBP issues on offense.

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: I love Mussina and Santana in 7 and 9. Those are great guys to build a staff around in this league at a very reasonable cost. Uggla, Lugo, Blalock, and Durham within the first ten picks… is a LOT of question marks, though each individual pick isn’t bad.
Preliminary Grade: B

Frosted_Lightning

(14) David Wright
(27) Justin Morneau
(54) Francisco Rodríguez
(67) John Smoltz
(94) Matt Cain
(107) Corey Patterson
(134) Nomar Garciaparra
(147) Scott Podsednik
(174) Orlando Cabrera
(187) Frank Thomas
(214) Craig Biggio
(227) Moisés Alou
(254) Ted Lilly
(267) Cliff Lee
(294) Matt Murton
(307) Mark Mulder
(334) Javy López
(347) Dennys Reyes
(374) Yhency Brazobán
(387) Oscar Villarreal
(414) Jack Taschner
(427) Mark Grudzielanek
(454) Yuniesky Betancourt
(467) José Valentín
Overview: Was this one an autodraft? I think so, but I honestly can’t remember. I guess it had to be because of the Lopez pick, but frankly other than that, this team is pretty competent.

Strengths: This team is up there with Omni’s as the fastest teams in the league, I think. Smoltz and Cain could both be aces, and of course, K-Rod is always nice to have around. Has three absolutely legit power guys in Morneau/Wright/Thomas, which is more than most teams in this league. Hoping Mulder can get it back together isn’t the worst speculative 16th round pick in the world.

Weaknesses: Is Biggio ageless? More importantly, will he get dropped in the Astros lineup? That could have a big effect on his counting stats. Is Patterson for real this time? He’s teased us before. Podsednik isn’t the best guy to have around other than for his SBs, and with the addition of a sub-par catcher, this team could have some significant OBP problems. Between Nomar, Alou, and Thomas, an injury to a key cog on offense certainly isn’t out of the question. Depth is very questionable across the board, but especially in the rotation and bullpen. Needs a catcher, obviously.

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: Thomas in the 10th is obviously a huge pick, and might end up being the cheapest elite pounder in the league if his health holds up. The draft sort of falls apart after Round 16, IMO – though I’m sure there’s room for difference of opinion – and that is what killed his depth.

Preliminary Grade: B-

Roid Boys II

(15) Manny Ramírez
(26) Carlos Lee
(55) Mariano Rivera
(66) Scott Rolen
(95) Jered Weaver
(106) Roger Clemens
(135) Josh Beckett
(146) Adam Wainwright
(175) Jorge Cantú
(186) Chris Duncan
(215) Carlos Quentin
(226) Scot Shields
(255) Gary Matthews Jr.
(266) Khalil Greene
(295) Fernando Rodney
(306) B.J. Upton
(335) Scott Spiezio
(346) Kip Wells
(375) Adam Kennedy
(386) Jason Kendall
(415) J.J. Hardy
(426) Eric Reed
(455) Boone Logan
(466) Chris Narveson
Overview: At first glance, this is this year’s Team Potential. There’s one of the widest ranges of possible outcomes here, from “really in trouble” to “one of the best”, and most of it is dependant on how youngsters develop and how inconsistent players play this year… and when guys like Roger and Manny decide to play at all. Definitely one of the most intriguing teams.

Strengths: Come July and August, Weaver/Beckett/Clemens/Wainwright could be the best combo of top four starters in the league. The setup guys are excellent, and you can always count on Mo. If I knew who Boone Logan was, would he be a strength? I really don’t know. Will be fun to watch the kids grow up and make this team great… but will it all happen soon enough?

Weaknesses: This team seems like it has a pretty good chance of digging itself a hole. Clemens obviously won’t be there for the first half of the year, guys like Quentin and Upton may take a month or two before they reach full potential, and there are a lot of question marks in general around how much performance this team is going to get from whom. I love what this team could be by June, but fo April and May, it’s going to have issues with all of the offensive counting stats other than HR, possibly OBP, W, and K. Development and Roger will fix much of that, but the cavalry may or may not get there in time to matter. Oh, and… Jason Kendall… is just generally weak. Though if anyone can offset his 550 AB of .340 slugging, it’s Manny.

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: Frankly, I think Matthews Jr. will be a pretty good guy to have where he was taken, even if he falls off a little bit from last year. Five pitchers in his top eight picks is why he’s relying so much on guys who are question marks, though the offense is in better shape after that than it might have been.

Preliminary Grade: C+

(to be continued, since it’s too long for a single post)

Kiros · March 19, 2007, 11:20pm

The Petunias

(16) Grady Sizemore
(25) Jason Bay
(56) Ben Sheets
(65) Scott Kazmir
(96) Chris Young
(105) Dan Haren
(136) Ryan Freel
(145) Jhonny Peralta
(176) Rafael Soriano
(185) Conor Jackson
(216) Jesse Crain
(225) Jonny Gomes
(256) Jeremy Hermida
(265) Akinori Otsuka
(296) Mike Napoli
(305) Cla Meredith
(336) Vicente Padilla
(345) Boof Bonser
(376) Mark Ellis
(385) Dustin Pedroia
(416) Trot Nixon
(425) Kendry Morales
(456) Maicer Izturis
(465) Darin Erstad
Overview: Even without any closers, I think this still might be the most pitching-centric team that we’ve seen so far. The offense is questionable, and dependant on some returns from injury and development of youth. This could very well be the best full stable of SPs if everyone remains healthy, though, and the setup guys are great as well.

Strengths: All of the pitching categories other than saves are set to be at or near the top of the league. There’s absolutely nothing to complain about with regard to the pitchers here – guys who get a ton of strikeouts and don’t walk many batters are, predictably, great guys to build around. Soriano and Otsuka have at least decent chances to move into save roles at some point over the course of the year, and they’re both worth having even if they don’t. Bay and Sizemore are great six-cat guys to build around on offense, and Gomes has the potential to be a cheap 40 HRs.

Weaknesses: This team has serious issues on offense. If Jackson and Hermida take steps forward, and Morales and Pedroia develop as well as can be reasonably expected, and Peralta and Gomes both recover after what happened last year, this team can be decent. As is, it will be average in SBs and have tons of trouble in the other offensive cats, and even if all of those things happen, it’s likely as not to have trouble in the OPS categories. If anything goes wrong on offense, things will be even more difficult to fix.

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: Gomes in the 12th could have huge value. Soriano in the 9th was almost certainly too early, unless you are absolutely sure that he’s going to take Wickman’s spot – especially for a team that could use another solid bat this badly.

Preliminary Grade: B-

Pine-Tarred Hands

(17) Vladimir Guerrero
(24) Derek Jeter
(57) Robinson Canó
(64) Hideki Matsui
(97) Bobby Jenks
(104) Delmon Young
(137) Chien-Ming Wang
(144) Morgan Ensberg
(177) Michael Barrett
(184) Pedro Martínez
(217) Curtis Granderson
(224) Kenny Rogers
(257) Zach Duke
(264) Garret Anderson
(297) Brendan Donnelly
(304) Braden Looper
(337) Ben Broussard
(344) Mike MacDougal
(377) John Maine
(384) Carl Pavano
(417) Dallas McPherson
(424) Jeff Weaver
(457) Clint Barmes
(464) Jae Seo
Overview: A sort of unassuming team that projects to be very solid. The pitching leaves a bit to be desired, particularly depending on whether or not the Pedro gamble pays off. The offense might be one guy short – I got burned on Dallas last year, so I’m not sure if I can buy into him this year quite yet – but otherwise it’s very solid top to bottom, with some potential for improvement.

Strengths: A lot of good value picks on guys who swing little pieces of wood led to an offense that might be lacking in speed, but will otherwise be very competitive in both counting categories and percentages. Ensberg wasn’t really that bad even in a down year, Matsui will be fine, and Young seems to be as good a bet as a young guy can be. The pitchers will get plenty of wins, especially if Pavano actually pitches… though I don’t know how sure of a bet that that is.

Weaknesses: The rotation depth is pinned on a guy recovering from surgery, a guy recovering from a complete fall off the map, and Jeff Weaver. And the healthy guys this team has don’t really strike anyone out, and have WHIPs that leave a good bit to be desired, which is always a question mark. A lot is pinned on the two finesse guys, Wang and Rogers. I guess I’m just generally not in love with this pitching staff, since it goes pretty well against my love for power pitchers.

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: How can you argue with Vlad at 17th in this league, where he’s about a sure bet as anyone and will help you in every category? Not thrilled with Wang in general… intellectually I can understand why he can keep succeeding doing what he is doing, but pitchers with low K rates and high WHIP for their ERA just turn me off.

Overall Grade: B-

The Cougars

(18) Mark Teixeira
(23) Ichiro Suzuki
(58) Jeremy Bonderman
(63) Ryan Zimmerman
(98) Magglio Ordóñez
(103) Jonathan Papelbon
(138) Pat Burrell
(143) Eric Gagne
(178) Marcus Giles
(183) Jorge Posada
(218) Tom Glavine
(223) David Eckstein
(258) Anibal Sánchez
(263) Shawn Green
(298) Mark DeRosa
(303) Clay Hensley
(338) Tim Wakefield
(343) Jack Wilson
(378) Yadier Molina
(383) Chris Reitsma
(418) Todd Walker
(423) Lastings Milledge
(458) Ryan Langerhans
(463) Manny Delcarmen
Overview: I have officially hit the point where all the teams are starting to look the same… I’m surprised that it took this long. This is a team with some potential, but that’s also standing on some pretty shaky ground: quite a few of those old guys that have still been pretty consistent, but where the bottom could fall out at any time.

Strengths: Quite a few potential bounce-back years hanging around. Giles could/should/might be better than his 2006 campaign… Green is settling into a pretty comfortable spot in that NY lineup… every year I have Maggs marked for a big power surge… Papelbon in the starting rotation is intriguing… and Teix could easily return to his top-10-pick status that he had before last year. A lot of pitchers that are pretty safe bets to be solid middle-of-the-fantasy-rotation starters.

Weaknesses: There are so many ways that things can go wrong here. Posada, Ichiro, Burrell, Green, Glavine, and Wakefield are all guys that SHOULD be pretty good… but if you told me each would have down years, I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked. The starters are all average-to-a-bit-high in WHIP. There is very little there in terms of setup guys and holds. This team is starting both David Eckstein and Jack Wilson on offense, and with an early pick spent on Ichiro, there is potential for serious HR and slugging percentage issues. Even with that Ichiro pick, this team doesn’t have elite speed, either. Gagne could be elite, but he’s also a pretty huge question mark. Expecting Anibal to be as good as he was last year might be a little hopeful – I do like Hensley’s chances to progress in that environment, though.

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: I can’t see Ichiro at 23 in this league, where he’ll kill you in three categories (HR, RBI, SLG) for a guy you’re taking that high. I really like Zimmerman at 63, though – that is about where he should be in terms of what he’s done so far in the league, and I think he has a great chance to get even better, and 3B is pretty shallow this year.

Preliminary Grade: C+

Kid_A

(19) Lance Berkman
(22) Matt Holliday
(59) Johnny Damon
(62) B.J. Ryan
(99) Brett Myers
(102) Álex Ríos
(139) Tadahito Iguchi
(142) Bronson Arroyo
(179) Adrián González
(182) Mike Piazza
(219) Scott Olsen
(222) Brad Penny
(259) Brandon Inge
(262) Salomón Torres
(299) Ryan Garko
(302) Chuck James
(339) Omar Vizquel
(342) Scott Proctor
(379) Luke Scott
(382) Juan Rincón
(419) Adam Loewen
(422) Casey Kotchman
(459) Wilson Betemit
(462) Brandon League
Overview: This team isn’t especially sexy, but I think that it gets the job done. A lot of guys who are going to come together and put up just enough stats to make this team very competitive, and near the top of the league going into the season.

Strengths: I love the offense on this team, and the pitching is very adequate. The lineup is probably one hitter short, depending if Garko gets any PT, but it’s the utility spot and should be relatively easy to fill early in the year. There are a bunch of great value picks for power here, no real OPS killers, and there will be plenty of speed to be competitive there as well. Ryan is a top closer, and frankly, Myers-Arroyo-Olsen-Penny-James isn’t overwhelming but will compare very well with most of the teams in this league for the top five SP. Torres may potentially get some saves as well, and the holds are there from the relivers (if not the overwhelming peripherals).

Weaknesses: No overwhelming top starter, obviously, and no elite middle guys. These are things that you can get by without if you have to, though I’d really like a couple more elite relievers to bring the staff WHIP down. Aforementioned note about possibly needing one more hitter. The more that I look at that lineup, though, the more that I like it, and that’s just the kind of pitching staff that “gets by” in this league every year.

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: Piazza in the 10th could be great value in his switch to the AL. I don’t know if I’m feeling Myers and Arroyo in the spots they were taken, but hey, the whole package turned out looking pretty good.

Preliminary Grade: A

No Pepper Games

(20) Travis Hafner
(21) Chris Carpenter
(60) Adam Dunn
(61) Bill Hall
(100) Curt Schilling
(101) Jason Giambi
(140) Francisco Cordero
(141) Brian Fuentes
(180) Chris B. Young
(181) Kevin Youkilis
(220) Orlando Hudson
(221) Anthony Reyes
(260) Shane Victorino
(261) Jason Jennings
(300) Randy Winn
(301) Chris Iannetta
(340) Tim Lincecum
(341) Dan Johnson
(380) Kelly Johnson
(381) Kevin Gregg
(420) Matt Kemp
(421) James Shields
(460) Michael Wuertz
(461) Joel Peralta
Overview: A ton of concentrated power and potential gives this team the chance to be one of the strongest offenses in the league, outside of speed. The pitching staff comes out looking pretty good as well, though there are definite depth issues to be addressed there.

Strengths: This is a OPS machine sort of offense. The weak spots are all young guys who could potentially be anything but weak – tons of hype around Iannetta and C. B. Young, and I tend to think Johnson will turn out fine. The top two pitchers are very, very good. Did I mention that this team has four guys that will put it in the middle of the HR pack even if all of his other players keel over and die? Also, there are two solid closers here, one of the few teams to enjoy that luxury.

Weaknesses: The lack of depth in the pitching staff bugs me a bit. The setup guys are sort of question marks, and a lot is being staked on Anthony Reyes to come through and Tim Lincecum to actually pitch in the majors. Most of the issues here are very fixable, though.

Favorite and Least Favorite Picks: A Randy Winn / Chris Ianetta turn in the 15th/16th feels just about right. I’m not sure Bill Hall is the SS you want if you’ve already got Hafner and Dunn, but there’s no debating it makes the power part of his offense look especially shiny.

Preliminary Grade: A-
Final Thoughts: We got pretty much what we asked for: a league that is really, really, REALLY deep. You’re lucky to have a quality starter at every position, you’re lucky to have five decent starting pitchers, you’re lucky to have two or three really good setup guys, and you’re REALLY lucky if you have two solid closers. The teams that have even two of those areas completely filled out are in very good shape, and virtually everyone will be scrambling over the first week or two of the season for potential starts, saves, and hitting stats. Virtually no one has any quality offensive backups, and the waiver wire projects to be extremely thin, so injuries may potentially shape the course of the league this year even more than in years prior. So, basically, however your draft went, if you have a good first couple of weeks (when the waiver wire might have a little substance) and you do really well with regards to injuries on key players… pretty much Everyone Has a Chance. Only about two more weeks ‘till the games start – good luck to everyone!

Jonathan_Chance · March 19, 2007, 11:46pm

Kiros, I sent you an email about the OOTP to the email address in your profile.

Omniscient · March 22, 2007, 3:39am

So I’ve had a couple days to settle down after missing the draft and taken some time to evaluate my teams and I think it’s fairly salvageable. I’m still bummed I missed the draft since it’s just so much fun, but I think the computer did a serviceable job on my team. Drafting dead center in the order would have been a exciting place to be. In a way it might even be a silver lining because I think it drafted a team outside what I usually prioritize in my live drafts. In years past I’m always thin on speed, OBP and I wait too long on starting pitching. In a way this team might be more balanced than one I’d normally draft. Also, being a Cubs fan usually means I end up with too many of them on my team and I have a huge bias towards NL players just due to familiarity. No one would confuse this team with an NL-heavy one. I’m gonna take a few minute here and just evaluate my draft pick by pick, I think I may agree with more than I previously thought.

Out On Waveland

(11) Carlos Beltrán
Tough to feel bad about this guy. I typically do like taking CF early, especially a multi-tool guy, but this year that position is much deeper (maybe the deepest in the league) than in years past. I’m probably a little lucky he made it to me frankly, and he had a bit of a slow start last year so he could have even better numbers this year if he gets his SB numbers back up.
(30) Vernon Wells
This guy simply saved my team last year and along with Frank Thomas was one of the real steals of that draft. For that reason he’d have been high on my list again this year but I’m sure I would have passed on him after taking Beltran in favor of Derrick Lee. Hell, I’d have been tempted by Lee in the first round and might have even ended up with Wells in the second.

With those two guys I really like my outfield and they will fill up every offensive category. If they combine for 40+ SB and 80+ HRs I’m going to be feeling very good about those selections. If only one of them could get eligibility at a corner spot.

(51) Chone Figgins
Contrary to Kiros’ evaluation I do have a guy with 3B eligibility in super-utility guy Figgins. He’s exactly the type of player I always overlook and with 52 steals last year his weak rate stats are easy to swallow. Having 4-positions he can play is pure gravy and so long as he continues to get into the lineup everyday he’ll be a godsend with this autodraft team that’s so weak in various positions. Supposing I find a good bat at 3B I’ll still get him into the lineup. Looking at the rest of that round, I’m not sure I see another guy I’d rather have, the best pitchers are mostly gone and it’s too early for a closer. I know I wouldn’t have taken him, but I’m happy to have him. My first 3 draft picks could potentially combine for 100 SBs.
(70) Gary Sheffield
I dislike this pick on principle. I just cannot stand Sheffield, and having to feel good when he succeeds will be troubling. The one saving grace will be that every HR he hits works against the White Sox. Nevertheless, he’s probably a good value here. I needed a 1B or a Corner OF at this point in the draft and Sheff can play either. There’s a few other guys that would have worked at this point (and I’d have been panicking that Rolen came off my queue) but assuming Sheff is healthy he should have great rate stats again and be batting in the middle of that solid lineup.
(91) Todd Helton
This is probably a steal. Helton could be starting a decline but he still can get on base like a madman. The drop in power numbers are a little troubling. Is it age, going off ‘roids, or the humidor-balls they use in Coors these days? I don’t know, but I’m hoping he at least gets to 20 HRs this year. As long as he has a .400 OBP and plays 140+ games he’s a great value here. With Sheffield slotted in as my RF the computer did another solid job.
(110) Jeff Kent
With the way he’s declining this is probably a reach. Still, he’s considered a top 10 2B by many outlets so I can’t be too troubled having him in my lineup. I think I’d have rather had Francouer here or one of the second tier SPs that went in the next 20 picks, but I probably would have grabbed J.D. Drew. Getting a 2B who can be productive this year is tough, and for that reason Kent might not be so overvalued in the 6th round and if he gets 20 HRs, 100 RBIs and an OPS in the ballpark of .850 this is a huge pick.
(131) Justin Verlander
I really dislike this pick. I don’t think he’s going to match last years numbers and I suspect he’s in for a sophomore slump. The AL Central in going to be better this year than last and he’s really struggled in spring training. Unfortunately I’m stuck with him. I would have absolutely targeted a pitcher here though, there’s a chance Verlander could step up and be an ace making this pick a quality one. In any case Beckett and Wang have just as many question marks as Verlander does. If that Kent pick would have been Harden and Verlander would have been my #2 I’d be much happier.
(150) Iván Rodríguez
Ugh. Another pick I hate. I suppose he’s a decent value here but I’m getting sick of the Tigers and I think he’s going to get old overnight and this could be the year. Still, he’s probably batting at the top of a loaded order in Detroit and should score plenty of runs and have quality rate stats. That is assuming he doesn’t turn 60 this June. Would have preferred to wait a couple rounds and settled for Barrett and taken Zumaya here.
(171) Nick Johnson
This guy can rake but he’s out until probably June. No idea if he’s expected to suffer any lingering effects too. Certainly with Sheffield, Kent and Helton all having 1B eligibility this is a bad gamble to take. Might make for a excellent trading piece down the road though. The guy is too great a hitter to be available this late. Here’s hoping he gets back too 100% ASAP. At this spot the I’d have been looking to grab some pitching or a corner OF with lots of upside.
(190) Eric Byrnes
This guy can play all three OF positions and was a 25-25 guy last year. If he repeats that I love the pick. Being that I was entirely without a LF at this point that position was a must and while Byrnes is basically another CF he’s not likely to get any starts there on my roster. Can’t say I’d have done much better with this pick.
(211) Jason Varitek
The computer has a real hard-on for catchers, don’t it? Not as bad as that Mauer-LoDuca mess but ‘Tek is still a totally wasted pick here. Another sport where pitching would have been a must. Dempster, Shields, Penny or Otsuka would have been better picks here. What can you do….
(230) Bartolo Colón
Of course now the computer goes for pitching and it lands this fat-bastard. Reports have said his arm-strength is pretty much shot and he’s going to have to learn to be a finesse pitcher. That’s not exactly music to a fantasy owner’s ears. I’d have tagged Garland in a split second here.
(251) Mike González
Why the autodraft is able to forecast batters but not pitchers I just don’t understand. It finally goes after saves and ends up getting holds. I suppose I should consider myself lucky that it didn’t take Liriano…
(270) Francisco Liriano
…Ummm, shit. With guys like Buerhle, Cliff Lee, Otsuka and Jennings still on the board these last three picks really sting. Three consecutive pitchers taken and not a one deserving of it. I really hope I catch a break with one of them.
(291) Troy Tulowitzki
I knew nothing about this guy and I desperately needed a SS so the computer took one. I’ve done some digging and the guy is absolutely killing it in spring training so I hope to be able to call this one a steal. At the very least it’s my only real “prospect”.
(310) Jake Westbrook
I actually like this pick. I think he’s going to post some good numbers this season if the Indians are able to play a little defense behind him. They’ll give him plenty of run support, that’s for sure.
(331) Orlando Hernández
Another shaky pitcher choice. He might turn out to be a asset on a good Mets team, but I’d have rather filled my line up 5 rounds sooner and been looking for batting prospects here. Emil Brown would have been nifty.
(350) Pedro Feliciano
This guy is a solid value and has good rate stats. Might find some holds or saves later in the season too.
(371) Jamie Moyer
Wow, this guy is really old. Hope he doesn’t post a double digit ERA.
(390) Jordan Tata
Um….hello waiver wire!
(411) Dustin Moseley
Who? The guy has been good in spring training and might find a spot in the rotation to start the season. The pisser is that it’ll probably come at the expense of Colon. Fingers crossed.
(430) Jamey Carroll
You’re barely hitting .100 this preseason and share a position on the same team as my starting SS. I’m dropping you and I hope you disappear. Plus your name is Jamey. Go away.
(451) Aaron Hill
If Kent or Tulowitzki decide to suck this year you’ll be important. The middle-infield versatility makes Hill useful and he might be productive in a potent Blue Jays lineup. I’d feel better if there was room for him at the top of it though.
(470) Ryan Klesko
I end up with this guy on my team every year and I hope he’ll stay healthy and he takes up a bench spot for the first half of the season for me. Not falling into that trap this year. Goodbye!

On the whole I’m pretty OK with my team. The lineup has a few issues but it also has the potential to dominate at least a couple of categories, specifically HRs and SBs. My pitching could be abysmal but I’m pretty much used to that from my teams. Injuries to a few key guys could totally submarine my chances. Will be an adventure and the first month I’ll have to pay close attention to which free agents step it up.

Wilson · March 28, 2007, 2:25am

Bumpity bump…

We’ve got another league out there, that’s drafting tomorrow night, that’s got a few openings, if anyone is interested. We’ve got a very serious group of 11 owners in, looking for up to three more.

Standard Yahoo settings pretty much, 5x5, one extra DL spot, and I’ve set the league to max 14 owners.

Draft time is Wednesday, March 28th, 9:30 PM Eastern.
League ID 250562
Password: cecil

C’mon in!

Fatwater_Fewl · March 28, 2007, 2:47am

Well, I’m back in these parts and I’d sure love to play. But there’s no absolutely no way I can make the draft tomorrow night. If there is still room, and you don’t mind an autodrafting owner, I’ll sign up and do an extensive preranking by tomorrow afternoon. I’m guess I’m willing to take my chances on an autodraft if it gets me one more league with competitive owners.

Your call, Wilson.

Wilson · March 28, 2007, 2:58am

Up to you, FF - Alex just bowed out of the league cause he couldn’t make the live draft, and oddly enough he mentioned something about cutting down on his fantasy baseball (yeah, I know, what the heck is that about)?
But you’re more than welcome if you’re willing to miss the draft. You know most everyone in the league either from Zev’s league or the Melting Pot.

Fatwater_Fewl · March 28, 2007, 3:09am

Okay, Wilson, I’m in. Thanks. I’ll be Schroedinger’s Bat, I guess.

If Alex can cut down, more power to him. I had a vague notion I’d cut down this year, too. Yeah, I stuck to that idea.

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SDMB Fantasy Baseball 2007

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