If Rapier42 has an excuse for being not around due to RL or if he’s already voted and unvoted today (didn’t look) then probably you should let it slide. One vote can’t change the outcome here.
Rapier42 didn’t vote/unvote toDay, but he FOSed Boozahol Squid, P.I. due to his vote for you. He said he was busy at work, and seemed to have his own interpretation of the vote pattern.
The reason I’m bringing this up is because Pleonast said several times that he sees something in the vote patterns, but won’t be able to formalize it until Tomorrow. It worries me, because he might get night-killed or something might come up in real life (as it has during the previous Day), and we won’t get to hear his theory. So I’d love to hear what Pleonast is thinking. It’s not like we have much else to discuss right now, so we might as well get a jump start on Tomorrow.
WTF does this even mean? Apparently I can’t open my mouth without doing something suspicious. Jesus Christ… :mad:
I’m working on it. Just finished a reread of ok11, but didn’t turn up anything.
It doesn’t help that my phone won’t stop ringing.
Unfuckingbelievable. Are you actually serious? You think I’m scum and my plan was to make an all out attack on Hal Briston, ignoring you on purpose, all in an effort to make your absence from my analysis conspicuous so people would think that I was ignoring you because you’re my scum partner, to get you lynched. (And somehow make myself “look good” later).
I must be some kind of goddamned super Bond Villain. Where’s my fluffy cat?
The reason I don’t go into more detail is because there’s not enough information yet. In previous games, You Solve It in particular, I analyzed the voting record. I made a few assumptions on how scum and town were likely to vote and came up with scores of how “scummy” each player’s voting record was. It only works when there’s enough Days to work with. At this point, I can look at the voting record and get a hunch or two, but it’s nothing worth crunching numbers on.
Although I was scum in that game, I used the method honestly and it worked fairly well. It picked out my fellow scum HazelNutCoffee as a scummy voter, leading to her lynch. (She did not appreciate that bussing.) Later, it would have picked me as well, but I manipulated the result by including the assumption that I was town. I’ll still use that assumption for determining my own vote (since it would be stupid for me not to include info I have), but I’ll keep it out of my published analysis.
While the votes on any individual Day don’t get much information, over the course of the game it really adds up. (I think Hazel was caught by it on Day Five.) As Scum, it is really difficult to vote as a Townie would over the long run, and probably counter-productive if they do. So I find my method very useful. It’s complementary to the approaches that other players take.
I didn’t get a chance to use it in my last game (Marvel on the other board) because the scum Night-killed me before I got the chance. Because they knew I would and they had already made the mistake of voting in a very non-Townie pattern. I won’t be surprised if I get Night-killed here either, but since it looks like confirmables are the favored targets, I should last another two Nights at least (assuming the second killer(s) appreciates analysis).
(Sorry, I can’t find the You Solve It mafia thread. Can anyone find it?)
I am going to keep posting like this until people start using the damn resource.
The Wiki has the link you need.
Thanks for your reply, Pleonast. The point system sounds really interesting.
And NAF1138, I’ve been using the Wiki a lot lately, so your PR campaign is working 
Actually, I checked the wiki first. But I saw that the You Solve It page didn’t exist, so assumed that no one had entered in the SDMB link. I now see that it’s cleverly hidden in the reference numbers. We should probably make that more clear.
I’ve seen it done before–and you’ve made yourself “look good” now–you expressly pointed out your analysis that the critical time was when Hal and I were tied and JSexton was one ahead.
Also, take a nice deep breath, man. You ain’t the one on the block anyway.
I have to be short, sorry. I don’t see any reason to be suspicious of Hal or Zeriel at this time. I know folks are using Yesterdays vote record as a data point, but I don’t see enough there to justify a vote by itself. I agree that there may be goodness in there, but I believe it’s going to take futher Days to correlate the data and reveal scum.
I wish I had the time right now to devote a full re-read to the thread, because thats really what I need to do to place an informed vote. As I mentioned, I’ve scanned the posts of a couple players* and didn’t find anything voteable, and I don’t have time to do more than that. Without knowing when Today will end, I’m forced to place a gut vote. I don’t understand why Shadow chose Hal to go after, without mentioning Zeriel, and I’m not persuaded by the justifications he’s (he? right?) offered since then. I hope I’ll have time before Dusk to come back and get that re-read done, and place a more-reasoned vote (or justify this one).
Vote Shadowfacts
*I shouldn’t have mentioned your name, ok11, because I didn’t find anything, so what I really did there was smudge you for no reason. Many apologies.
One more thing, sorry - Kat, could you restate your case against Zeriel, please?
That’s a real shame.
I know you’re busy - can you post this analysis today?
I don’t mean to pipe in for Zeriel but you’ve asked a similar question to me earlier. It strikes me as odd that you are describing your own arguments advocating Hal’s lynch as an “all out attack.”
Here you are again on a similar wavelength.
This has me wondering a few things.
-
Twice you’ve sworn at someone who has put a vote on you, despite being nowhere near lynch leader today. If you really wanted to promote discussion you would accept that some might not agree with your views. Swearing at people in a game seems incredibly defensive, especially when (if you are town) you would have no way of really knowing if your arguments are true.
-
I’m having difficulty parsing the second quote. There is no reason for any of us to assume our strong arguments will lead directly to a lynch. There is the possibility that you never expected Hal to actually be lynched. Scum have to put their votes somewhere too, and the more vocal they can be the more it appears they are town. You were vocal against Hal yesterday and he didn’t get lynched, it could be a good place to start day 3. Especially when there was another person who got more votes than your target yesterday. But you didn’t mention that part, and now that Hal is unlikely to be lynched today you are describing yourself actions as an “all out attack.”
-
Finally, these quotes feel like a betrayal of your true knowledge. You ask us to ponder your motivation if you were scum. However, I’m pondering your motivation in general. If you are town you would accept there is a chance Hal is also town. You would have considered this before your “all out attack” and perhaps curbed your enthusiasm. Rather than directly acknowledge this, you set up a pre-emptive WIFOM argument: “Why would scum go after someone they know is town? It is sooo dumb, I’d never do that if I were scum”
Yeah, so willing that you swear at people who vote on you.
You are right about one thing: I am getting very frustrated by the game today. When are we ever going to learn from previous games, I wonder?
I’m not going to bother rebutting you that I swore at two people voting for me. It’s not true and not worth the effort since you never respond to my criticisms (and apparently nobody else bothers to read them).
But I AM willing to put myself to the test -
Unvote Hal Briston
Vote ShadowFacts
Let’s get this over with before my head explodes. C’mon, come help me flame out, it’ll be fun! I only need two more votes!
<sigh>…I read Hero’s post and think “Hmmm…that was kinda flirting with the line between playing the game and being a bit of a jerk”, but hey, it happens. Then I click refresh, and I see Shadow pouring a nice, tall glass of WIFOM. Man, I [del]love[/del] [del]hate[/del] [del]love[/del] [del]hate[/del] [del]love[/del] [del]hate[/del] get a little frustrated by this game sometimes…
Fwah-hubba?
Wow, Shadow. You’re hardly on the radar and now this? A few players complaining about you (that’s a general you) is hardly unusual. You (that’s a specific you; I hate English) are nowhere close to a lynch. And even if you were, Townies get lynched all the time. It’s what we do–be sacrificed for the team.
And I don’t think we’re doing too badly as a Town (of course, I’ll change my mind on that if Zeriel comes back Town). By my estimation, we have at least two more bad lynches before we’re at lynch or lose. Is there anything in particular you think we’re messing up on, other than disagreeing who the best lynch is Today?
I’m sorry, everyone, I’ve let the game get to my head. As much as I would like to stop playing right now, that’s selfish and not fair to Town. So I’m going to:
Unvote ShadowFacts
…and take the rest of the Day off. I need some time away. Consider this my final post until toMorrow, when if I’m still alive I promise I’ll keep it cool.
I want to hear you say, Tomorrow, that you think we ARE doing badly when I come back Town. For me.
Not to harp, Shadow, but you got a reason there for not re-establishing your vote?