Well, again, my hypothesis is that scum have been laying low and letting the town screw up. I think it makes sense in this setup, as they have no motivation to act unless one of their own is on the block.
This is the list of live players who repeatedly appear to be not voting on the top two (or three in case of a tie).
2 - ok11
3 - ShadowFacts
3 - Total Lost
1 - Zsofia
2 - Fretful Porpentine
1 - Rapier42
1 - Pleonast
2 - Blaster Master
(It might be worth noting OAOW would also have 3)
You (Shadow) are tied with TL, but I hardly feel you are laying low. In addition, TL has been dismally narrow with her votes. She seems like someone who isn’t hunting scum and is also avoiding taking a stand. I thought it was interesting how she popped in today thirty minutes after her mention.
Since on Day 2 all of our non-voters were town (and therefore every scum voted), I thought it would be a good place to look for scum.
I am excluding myself and amrussell from this analysis, but of course if you wanted to use the same approach you’d have to put me back into the mix. I divided the rest of the players into two groups: those who voted for Jsexton (group 1 = BS PI, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal Briston, Pleonast) and those who didn’t (group 2 = Hero from Sector 7G, Blaster Master, ShadowFacts, Total Lost). Most people seem to think we’ve got 5 scum. If that’s the case there are probably 2 scum in one group and 3 in the other. (As you’ll see in many of my scenarios, I think it’s likely that we don’t have 5 scum)
I used the assumptions from my previous post, according to which it’s unlikely that both players in certain pairs (or everyone in a group of 3) are scum. With that in mind, I came up with the following scenarios for each of the 9 players mentioned above. Sorry for the weird order; I’m too lazy to rearrange the list from most to least likely, or something like that.
Scenario 1: If Blaster Master is scum, then Rapier42, Pleonast, and Zsofia are likely to be town. That narrows down group 1 to BS PI and Hal Briston. It’s unlikely that both Total Lost and ShadowFacts are scum, and (assuming that Hal in group 1 is scum, and considering what’s been happening between ShadowFacts and Hal over the past few Days), I’m inclined to think that Total Lost is more likely to be scum. So if there are 5 scum in this game, then they are Blaster Master, BS PI, Hal Briston, Hero from Sector 7G and Total Lost.
This scenario seems very unlikely because it would mean that Boozahol Squid, P.I and Hero voted together and tried to get Nanook banned, and that Total Lost has been bussing Hero this whole time. But it makes a lot more sense if there are 4 scum, and Hero is town. Here’s some additional info, but I haven’t double-checked it, so I might be wrong. Total Lost has never voted for the same people as Blaster Master, Boozahol Squid, P.I, Hal at the same time. Blaster Master and Hal also never voted for the same people at the same time. BS PI and Hal both had votes for Jsexton at the end of Day 2. BS PI and Blaster Master were both voting for Zeriel at the end of Day 3.
Scenario 2: If Rapier42 is scum, then **Blaster Master, Pleonast **, and Hero are probably town. If we exclude them, then group 1 is now BS PI, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal Briston and group 2 is ShadowFacts, Total Lost. It’s unlikely that both members of group 2 are scum, which would mean that there are too many scum in group 1. Therefore, this scenario seems unlikely to me.
Alternatively, if Rapier42 is scum, then Boozahol Squid, P.I, Hero, and Zsofia can be town. That leaves Rapier42, Hal Briston, Pleonast in group 1; Blaster Master, ShadowFacts, Total Lost in group 2. This doesn’t make much sense either, because then we’d have to exclude one of ShadowFacts and Total Lost, and one of **Blaster Master, Pleonast **, once again leaving us with too few scum.
There are other possible permutations, but I’m going to move on to other people.
Scenario 3: If Hal is scum, then Shadow and Hero are probably town. Group 2 is then narrowed down to Blaster Master and Total Lost, both of whom would have to be scum, because otherwise too many scum voted for Jsexton. In that case, we’re pretty much back to scenario 1. (I.e. the scum are Blaster Master, BS PI, Hal Briston, and Total Lost)
Scenario 4: If Total Lost is scum, it’s unlikely that ShadowFacts is scum. That doesn’t really help me narrow things down. I guess you could also say Hero is town, because she’s been on his case a long time. That leaves group 1 the same, and group 2 is left with Blaster Master, Total Lost. This would suggest that we have fewer than 5 scum, because I doubt that 3 scum would vote for JSexton.
Scenario 5: If Zsofia is scum, then ShadowFacts and Blaster Master are likely to be town, and so is one of BS PI and Rapier42. That narrows down group 2 to Hero and Total Lost, both of whom would probably have to be scum because otherwise too many scum voted for Jsexton. Just like in scenario 4, it makes it seem unlikely that we have 5 scum.
Vote Analysis (Part 2 of 2) (When I previewed, I got a database error. So I hope I don’t accidentally post this twice)
Scenario 6: If Hero is scum, then it’s unlikely that Rapier42, Boozahol Squid, P.I, and Hal are scum. So that leaves Zsofia and Pleonast in group 1, and Blaster Master, ShadowFacts, Total Lost in group 2. Further assuming that Zsofia is scum, it’s unlikely that ShadowFacts and Blaster Masterare scum. This only leaves Total Lost in group 2. Grand total of scum: Hero, Zsofia, possibly Pleonast, and Total Lost. In this scenario, Total Lost voting for Hero could be bussing.
Additional info: Total Lost has never voted for the same people as Hero, Zsofia, and Pleonast at the same time. Same goes for Pleonast and Hero. ** Zsofia** and Pleonast both voted for Jsexton at the end of Day 2. ** Zsofia** and Hero both ended Day 4 with votes for OAOW.
Scenario 6 (continued): If we assume instead that Pleonast is scum, it’s likely that Blaster Master is town. That leaves ShadowFacts and Total Lost in group 2. Also, if either Zsofia or Total Lost is scum, it’s unlikely that ShadowFacts is scum too. That would mean the following people are scum: Hero, Pleonast, possibly Zsofia, and Total Lost (pretty much the same result).
Scenario 7: If Pleonast ** is scum, then it’s likely that Blaster Master and Rapier42 are town. That leaves Hero from Sector 7G, ShadowFacts, Total Lost in group 2. Except it’s unlikely that both ShadowFacts and Total Lost are scum, so only 2 people in group 2 are scum, and Hero would have to be one of them. And if Hero is scum, it’s unlikely that Rapier42, Boozahol Squid, P.I, and Hal are scum. As a result, it means the following people are scum Zsofia, Pleonast, Hero and either ShadowFacts or Total Lost. (Extra info: at some point in the game ** Zsofia had her vote on the same person as Pleonast, ShadowFacts, and as Hero, but she never had the same vote as them on the final vote count.)
Scenario 8: If Boozahol Squid, P.I is scum, Hero and probably **Pleonast ** aren’t scum. So scum in group 2 are Blaster Master and either ShadowFacts or Total Lost. And if Blaster Master is scum, then Rapier42, Pleonast, and Zsofia probably aren’t. Consequently, group 1 is reduced to BS PI and Hal Briston.
Scenario 9: If ShadowFacts is scum, then Hal Briston, Zsofia, and probably Total Lost are town. In that case, group 1 is BS PI, Rapier42, Pleonast and group 2 is Hero from Sector 7G, Blaster Master, ShadowFacts. It’s hard to narrow it down further, because depending on who else you consider scum from either of the groups, different players get eliminated as town.
I’m torn between voting for Total Lost and Zsofia. Both of them look kind of scummy due to their participation level. Since Total Lost comes up scum in most of my scenarios, I’d like to vote for her. I did a review of her a few Days ago, and she didn’t look too scummy. But back then I thought that OAOW was scum, and it seemed unlikely to me that both she and OAOW are scum. Since OAOW turned out to be a PFK, it now seems likelier to me that Total Lost is scum.
However, I think right now Hero is in the lead, and I don’t want him to be banned. I think he might be town, and even if he isn’t, at least he’s been actually playing. So if nothing else, keeping him around gives the rest of the players something to talk about. Zsofia, on the other hand, hasn’t really been involved in many of our major discussions (Nanook being the notable exception). So for now I’ll
**
Vote Zsofia**
And depending on how the Day goes I might change it to Total Lost a little later.
That is a nice little smugde. I said I was busy IRL and would be back to post when I got the time (and that I’m trying to follow the game reading as much as I can… even when I don’t have the time to post).
And yes, I did skim some posts - saw my name and felt I could quickly make that post (it really didn’t take that much time to write it).
I have been after Hero for a long time and after his posts toDay I still get a scummy-vibe. I don’t understand the curse- accusation and I don’t understand the point about voting for me for:
Lack of participation (I don’t believe I’m the only one with IRL being busy - Hero himself mentions at least two others in a later post)
For me voting for you? - so you’re saying that it’s a “OMGUS”-vote??
I’m not up to date, but posting my notes. Sorry for the absence, I finally bought the house over the holiday and am now waist high in contractors.
Vote Pattern
PLAYER LIST
Nanook of the North Shore Troll KILLED NIGHT TWO
Kat Vanilla Town KILLED NIGHT FOUR
NaturalBlondChap Guest LYNCHED DAY ONE
One And Only Wanderers Doctor LYNCHED DAY FOUR
pedescribe Charter Member KILLED NIGHT TWO ok11 amrussell Charter Member Boozahol Squid, P.I
peekercpa Watcher KILLED NIGHT ONE Hal Briston Rapier42 ShadowFacts Blaster Master
Oredigger77 Charter Member KILLED NIGHT THREE
Zeriel Vanilla Town LYNCHED DAY THREE Zsofia Pleonast
Santo Rugger Doctor KILLED NIGHT THREE
JSexton Vanilla Town LYNCHED DAY TWO Hero From Sector 7G
DiggitCamara Admin KILLED NIGHT ONE
Fretful Porpentine Celebrity KILLED NIGHT FOUR Total Lost
Colors: Unknown, Town, Scum, 3rd Side DAY ONE (23 players)
NBC : 6 (Santo Rugger, Hal Briston, Pedescribe, Zeriel, JSexton, Nanook o/t North Shore) Nanook o/t North Shore : 5 (BS PI, Hero from Sector 7G, Peekercpa, Oredigger77, NBC) DiggitCamara : 2 (ok11, ShadowFacts) Hero from Sector 7G : 2 (One and Only Wanderers, Total Lost) Zeriel : 2 (Kat, amrussell) Kat : 1 (Zsofia) peekercpa : 1 (Fretful Porpentine) ok11 : 1 (DiggitCamara) No Vote : 3 (Rapier42, Blaster Master, Pleonast) DAY TWO (20 players)
JSexton : 7 (BS PI, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal Briston, Pleonast, Nanook o/t North Shore, ok11) Zeriel : 6 (Kat, amrussell, JSexton, Hero from Sector 7G, Pedescrobe, Blaster Master) Hal Briston : 3 (Oredigger, ShadowFacts, Zeriel) Zsofia : 1 (Total Lost) ok11 : 1 (OaOW) No Votes : 2 (Santo Rugger, Fretful Porpentine) DAY THREE (17 players)
Zeriel : 5 (Kat, Boozahol Squid P. I., Pleonast, amrussell, Blaster Master) ShadowFacts : 3 (Hero from Sector 7G, Hal Briston, Rapier42) Hal Briston : 3 (Zsofia, Oredigger77, Fretful Porpentine) Boozahol Squid P.I. : 1 (Santo Rugger) Hero from Sector 7G : 1 (Total Lost) ok11 : 1 (One and Only Wanderers) Blaster Master : 1 (Zeriel) One and Only Wanderers : 1 (ok11) No Votes : 1 (Shadowfacts) DAY FOUR (14 players)
OAOW : 4 (Ok11, Hero, Zsofia, Porpentine) Hero : 2 (Total, Shadow) Fretful Porpentine : 1 (BlaM) Total Lost : 1 (Pleo) No Vote : 5 (Squid, Hal, Kat, OaOW, Rapier) In the Hole : 1 (amrussell)
My laptop still isn’t recognizing its wireless card, so again I’m mostly stuck with posting at work.
I didn’t end with a “shiny ‘look at Hal’”, I pointed out that at one time Hal’s head was firmly on the chopping block, or at least on the auxiliary chopping block. The next Day, it seems like everybody forgot about him, although the reasons he was being examined did not change. I think that’s interesting, and possibly telling since we’re down to so many scum and so few town that if scum doesn’t bring it up and town is tired of the discussion and also wary of that whole auto-lynch-yesterday’s-other-candidate thing, then the case against a player could pretty easily be dropped.
Starting player hypothesis: 16 Town, 5 Scum, 2 Third Party. I will also assume third parties will vote like Townies.
Day One hypothesis: scum votes spread uniformly; no need to go any particular direction. (Sides are 23=16+5+2)
NBC: 56/23 votes == 1.30 scum => 1.30 pts for Hal.
Nanook: 55/23 votes == 1.09 scum => 0.54 pts for Squid, Hero.
Others: 5-1.30-1.09 == 2.61 scum => 0.37 pts for ok, Shadow, Total, Zsofia, Rapier, BlaM, Pleo.
Day Two hypothesis: scum are likely to avoid heat between two Townie vote leaders. (20=13+5+2)
JSexton: 5*7/20 votes 0.75 == 1.31 scum => 0.22 pts for Squid, Zsofia, Rapier, Hal, Pleo, ok
Zeriel: 56/20 votes *0.75 == 1.13 scum => 0.56 pts for Hero, BlaM
Others: 5-1.31-1.13 == 2.56 scum => 1.28 pts for Shadow, Total
Day Three hypothesis: scum have no reason to jump on Zeriel. (17=11+5+1)
Zeriel: 5*5/17 votes *0.75 == 1.10 scum => 0.37 pts for Squid, Pleo, BlaM
Others: 5-1.10 == 3.90 scum => 0.56 pts for Hero, Hal, Rapier, Zsofia, Total, ok, Shadow
Day Four hypothesis: scum try to avoid not voting, while Townies have lost motivation. (14=8+5+1)
Non-Voters: 5*5/14 votes *0.75 == 1.34 => 0.45 pts for Squid, Hal, Rapier
Voters: 5-1.34 == 3.66 => 0.52 pts for ok, Hero, Zsofia, Total, Shadow, BlaM, Pleo
I’ve underlined the “high” scores of each Day. Number in front of each name is number of high scores that player has and sorted the players on that. Looks like the most suspicious players are Hero From Sector 7G, ShadowFacts, and Total Lost.
I’ll be happy to hang any of them, but for now, I’ll switch: unban Total Lost ban Hero from Sector 7G
Because of the “what happened to Hal?” thing and the sudden case against me, I think ok11’s analysis where it posits that at least some of Blaster Master, BS PI, Hal Briston, and Total Lost are scum looks pretty good. Hal’s been laying low since he didn’t die, Boozy hasn’t been active lately, people are calling out Total Lost’s participation even now, and Blaster Master has suddenly led a brigade against me. Well, I know I’m not scum, and while of course there’s perfectly townie motivation for going after anybody, I think it’s interesting that Blaster Master has chosen to “start new discussion” by going after me, of all the choices at hand.
I’m going to take a quick look at Boozy. Not easy, because he’s one of our more prolific posters. But c.15 of the 90 are either pre-game chatter or Night time colour. Another factor which makes this easier is that he hasn’t posted in a calendar week - hope he’s not forgotten about the game.
Recent conversations of substance include:
Back and forth with Santo, almost entirely (as admitted) based on **Boozy’s **mis-reading/mis-remembering of **Santo’s **role claim.
Voting for Zerielas an info lynch - again admitting that this was weak. (But defending the necessity of it when challenged by Rapier42)
One of the posters who put pressure on JSexton for his bluff: 4 posts in quick succession, starting with a vote here:
and then making three others once JSexton confessed to the bluff, all strongly disparaging the gambit, e.g.:
That reasoning sounded odd to me then, and sounds odd now - but in fairness, a few townies seemed to agree with it.
Going further back in time, there were quite a few posts on what do about Nanook, and even earlier a couple advising Masons not to out themselves.
My overall impression is of someone talking a lot but not saying too much. One notable habit is the tendency to vote early and, lacking a claim, leave that vote there. This means that he’s not jumping on band-wagons, or manipulating the vote. On the other hand, consistently being non-controversial carries a faint whiff of intent.
I don’t really have a conclusion here. I don’t like the quick-fire pressure on JSexton, or the infolynch on Zeriel. But tehre’s nothing suspicious enough to make a vote, and if I WIFOM that I’ll be here all day.
I don’t think he’s scum. I think he’s most likely a “lurker” role that activates when the Town is almost screwed, to give us a last chance. Or, he’s a returning third party. We need to lynch Scum, killing third parties does not help us at this point.
The first thing was the 3rd vote on day one. By itself it doesn’t mean much but it is something that happens with newb scum. A good part of my first day stuff is summed up by ok11 and Total Lost. It felt like he was twisting words to try and get something started, then like he was working on mason fishing to me. Then later in the day he was working to get PFK Nanook killed. Scum have a very vested interest in getting unknowns who can have other win conditions and powers dead early (see Skrull re: NAF). The others working to get him dead were confirmed town, barring SquiDio. I find it very likely that there was scum on that lynch try.
Hero was pretty quiet on day 2, but at the start of day three, began misrepresenting Shadowfacts as having not come out against the lynch of JSexton the day before. She also continued hammering Hal and Zsofia for buying into the JSexton gambit, which was a rational thing to do. Going along with the idea that one was definitely scum – you don’t take down the one that went first, and by day three, this was laid out, but the smudging continued.
Day 4 was rather short. I wanted to pop into the game at this point, but didn’t have time to go back and see what I really wanted to do – so I abstained. Day 5 was the last day I would feel comfortable coming in (day 3 was the first eligible one) without my death before being a part of the game became to risky.
The other thing I have to say regarding my role is that I asked at the start of the game to be brought in as a sub, yet when one was being looked at, I wasn’t tapped. I came on the way I did due to being hurried – and I haven’t had the time I’d like to stick into the game since. I got my survival vote on in, and football, being upset with football, results, studying for finals, homework, class, and sleeping have conspired to keep me away. I’m hoping that people will see the rationale that letting a scum appear on day five with no posting history would be a pretty severe hit to town. No voting record, or anything allowing analysis would need balancing by some pretty damn strong powers for town, which we really haven’t seen.
But seriously, your points on Zsofia are not without merit.
It certainly looks like that’s how you ended it. And the reasons didn’t change because there never were any valid reasons. The next Day, I got swamped at work and didn’t contribute to the game. Without my presence, there wasn’t any handwaving and “Look at Hal! Look at Hal!”…until now, that is.
I maintain that Shadow is either scum, or got nicely played by them, but your actions in trying to redirect attention are far more suspicious at this point.
What, redirect attention from me? Isn’t that what town is supposed to do when accused - explain why it isn’t them and say who they think is a likely suspect?
I can understand you don’t want to be lynched - but I really find your reasons for the vote on me kind of weak. You don’t mind I get lynch just because you want to save youself? You can’t even go back and point to some thing I said that seem pro-scum or anti-town?
As for the way I have voted… yes, I didn’t vote NBC (town) or JSEXTON (town) and not even Zeriel (town). You might see that as scummy… I don’t.
Plea, you make scum hypotheses but I do not see how I fit them, or why that even matters. Further, you assign a numerical value to the behavior than throw it out the window and simply count the appearances. Adding my values up paints a different picture.
So I’m guilty of contributing a vote?
So my good judgment to avoid being drawn into a crazy gambit is scummy?
Ah, so here I’m guilty for not lynching town.
And here I’m guilty of simply playing the game by voting again? If I was true town, I’d be too depressed at our crappy play and just give up?
