Self driving cars are still decades away

[iamthewalrus_3]

@control-z

To me a lot of time and money is being wasted on trying to make vehicles self-driving. Any self-driving model that requires constant driver attention or people standing by at remote locations to take over is inefficient and a waste of time IMO.

Is there a better way to train/test the systems safely? I don’t think that anyone thinks that there will always be someone waiting attentively to take over.

Humans require a lot of training with someone waiting to take over too. Do you think Driver’s Ed is wasteful and inefficient?

[RTFirefly]

Update: Waymo’s driverless taxi service isn’t driverless, and doesn’t seem to have many passengers, either.

[Paxx]

From https://www.tesla.com/autopilot, current info from Tesla about Enhanced Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability:

All Tesla vehicles have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at a safety level we believe will be at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distancetrips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

I thought that what Tesla is promising is not currently possible.

[steronz]

I think they’re at least right in that the cars have all the necessary hardware for that, but the software isn’t even close. In a thread where we struggle to settle on a benchmark, though, and with automakers shifting their own goalposts around (e.g. Waymo’s fair-weather members-only shuttle service) I think it’s good to have that description archived here, as that level of self-driving car is what I envisioned when I started this thread. I think that’s what most people think of when they hear terms like “autopilot.”

[control-z]

@iamthewalrus_3

Is there a better way to train/test the systems safely? I don’t think that anyone thinks that there will always be someone waiting attentively to take over.

Humans require a lot of training with someone waiting to take over too. Do you think Driver’s Ed is wasteful and inefficient?

Yes but after that driver’s ed student passes his test he requires no further supervision to drive. No so with self-driving cars. Self-driving cars are are like putting a bunch of inexperienced 5 year old driver’s ed students with poor depth perception on the streets, IMO.

Sure it’s a novelty, but if you go out and buy a Tesla, put it in autopilot, be vigilant like you’re supposed to, and take over when it does something stupid you aren’t teaching the car anything. You’re just expected to take over at a moment’s notice to make up for the shortcomings of current technology.

I just don’t see the point in the current form.

[enipla]

@control-z

Yes but after that driver’s ed student passes his test he requires no further supervision to drive. No so with self-driving cars. Self-driving cars are are like putting a bunch of inexperienced 5 year old driver’s ed students with poor depth perception on the streets, IMO.

Sure it’s a novelty, but if you go out and buy a Tesla, put it in autopilot, be vigilant like you’re supposed to, and take over when it does something stupid you aren’t teaching the car anything. You’re just expected to take over at a moment’s notice to make up for the shortcomings of current technology.

I just don’t see the point in the current form.

Yep, it almost seems to me that you would have to be MORE diligent to take over at a moments notice. At least when you are driving, you know what you expect yourself to do. Not necessarily so with autopilot.

[Snowboarder_Bo]

Driverless cars start delivering groceries.

The nation’s largest grocery chain stepped into the driverless delivery market Tuesday, bringing milk, eggs and other items to a customer’s home in a vehicle with nobody at the wheel.

Although limited to delivering within about a mile (1.5 kilometers) of one Arizona supermarket owned by Kroger Co., it represents the latest step for industries trying to lower delivery costs of everyday items and those trying to launch self-driving cars on public roads.

Tuesday’s delivery arrived at Shannon Baggett’s house in the Phoenix suburb of Scottsdale. She was already receiving groceries weekly from larger, manned self-driving vehicles that the company Nuro developed and launched in August. She said it was surreal to see nobody in the car bringing her milk, eggs and strawberries.

“It was very cool to see it pull up. It was a lot smaller than I thought it would be,” Baggett said. “I told my husband, ‘We just got our groceries delivered by a robot.’”

It’s been a little over a year since the OP…

I look forward to all the contorted arguments that will attempt to inform me that this is not, in fact, a self-driving car and that it is in no way actually on the road.

[Richard_Pearse]

Can’t drive on main roads, limited to 1 mile, has a “shadow vehicle” in case something goes wrong. Sure it’s an interesting step but you know full well it is not the sort of the the OP was discussing.

[Red_Wiggler]

This thread is like the Mueller investigation. Incremental progress is made every day but “is he impeached yet/are self-driving cars ubiquitous yet?” remains the crux of the opposition/disbelief.

It’s a process. Maybe an unstoppable one.

[steronz]

@Snowboarder_Bo

I look forward to all the contorted arguments that will attempt to inform me that this is not, in fact, a self-driving car and that it is in no way actually on the road.

I set my own goalposts Oct '17:

@steronz

When there’s no expectation of the driver having to do anything on a routine trip. That is to say, I should be able to plug in an address in my driveway and take a nap without any guilt should something happen while I’m sleeping, nor should I have more than a minimal risk of waking up halfway through the trip to find that my car encountered some unsolvable situation and has parked itself for the last 3 hours waiting for me to rescue it.

Also see post #243.

[Ravenman]

@Snowboarder_Bo

I look forward to all the contorted arguments that will attempt to inform me that this is not, in fact, a self-driving car and that it is in no way actually on the road.

I heard that 400,000 groceries lined up to put down a $1,000 deposit on it, even though they won’t be able to buy it for several years. It’s going to have to go through “produce hell” to get it to consumers. BOGO coupons not accepted.

[The_Librarian]

@Snowboarder_Bo

Driverless cars start delivering groceries.It’s been a little over a year since the OP…

I look forward to all the contorted arguments that will attempt to inform me that this is not, in fact, a self-driving car and that it is in no way actually on the road.

No problem: you can call it self driving.

But I do think a delivery truck is the dumbest use case for a self driving vehicle imaginable.
Who’s gonna carry the groceries to my kitchen?

[Paxx]

@Ravenman

I heard that 400,000 groceries lined up to put down a $1,000 deposit on it, even though they won’t be able to buy it for several years.

You heard? Where and when?

[Ravenman]

@Paxx

You heard? Where and when?

About foodstuffs putting deposits down on Bo’s autonomous shopping cart? Let’s just say I was given the inside two scoops and I lapped it up like milk. Sure, that’s a lot of cabbage for the average egg, but that doesn’t make them a sucker. You’re asking me where’s the beef, but someone is bringing home the bacon. If this shopping cart is worth its salt, you don’t need to worry about comments from any nuts on the Internet. The proof is in the pudding, and I trust the cart not to drive like a hot dog.

Does that clear it up?

[steronz]

Clear as Crystal Pepsi.

[Paxx]

Got it.
Whooshed.

[Maserschmidt]

But Tuesday’s launch also highlighted some of the many challenges still ahead for autonomous vehicles: One of the compact cars didn’t drive as planned at a media demonstration because of a dead battery and had to be pushed up a ramp and onto a truck by several men.

lol. You know you’re struggling when on the day of the big demo you can’t even get one of the two cars you prepped to operate.

[RTFirefly]

@Red_Wiggler

This thread is like the Mueller investigation. Incremental progress is made every day but “is he impeached yet/are self-driving cars ubiquitous yet?” remains the crux of the opposition/disbelief.

It’s a process. Maybe an unstoppable one.

I’ll continue to stand by my prediction from last year:

@RTFirefly

I’ll make a prediction: all this 2020 stuff is crap. You won’t be able to go to your dealer and buy a true self-driving car any earlier than 2024. (I really don’t think it’s going to be until the 2030s, though I’d love to be wrong.)

[Tired_and_Cranky]

I’ve completely changed my position after catching up with this thread and reading a few other articles. Six months ago, I would have predicted that there would be a real self-driving car operating without minders over at least a few city-sized areas, either for sale or in real commercial service (taxi fleet or deliveries), by the end of 2024. But, based on what I’m reading, I think the technology is developing too slowly for companies to justify the massive continuing investments in self-driving cars that will be necessary to get them to market. I don’t know if there will ever be self-driving cars, but I don’t think it will come in the next decade, and I think none of the companies trying to be the first to market now will continue to be involved with them by then. Today’s companies will have thrown up their hands after burning barrels full of money on the effort. I think we will hear more about self-driving car companies failing or cancelling their programs in 2019 and 2020 than we will hear about massive milestones in SDCs. I hope I’m wrong.

@Snowboarder_Bo

Driverless cars start delivering groceries.It’s been a little over a year since the OP…

I look forward to all the contorted arguments that will attempt to inform me that this is not, in fact, a self-driving car and that it is in no way actually on the road.

It operates in a one square mile area. At no more than a few miles per hour. And they have so little faith in it, they have a chase vehicle with an operator who can control it remotely. This is not the self-driving future I envisioned. This is an experiment designed to generate publicity more than a real public roll-out of technology. It will probably go away quietly and without fanfare in the near future.

@The_Librarian

No problem: you can call it self driving.

But I do think a delivery truck is the dumbest use case for a self driving vehicle imaginable.
Who’s gonna carry the groceries to my kitchen?

Who carries the groceries from your trunk?

@Maserschmidt

Not for a long while. This announcement didn’t change anything.

Waymo's So-Called Robo-Taxi Launch Reveals a Brutal Truth | WIRED

@RTFirefly

Update: Waymo’s driverless taxi service isn’t driverless, and doesn’t seem to have many passengers, either.

These articles suggest that Waymo has taken a big step backwards. Waymo used to offer free self-driving rides to 400 consumers. Now they are going to charge them for the same service. Some of the users who thought it free was a great price will drop out, so this is a convenient way of shrinking the test pool without saying as much. These cars still need a minder. Waymo got a lot of headlines when they said they would pilot test fully self driving cars but it seems like few cars actually operated without drivers. This autonomous service launch seems more like the people in charge of the project are trying to appear to have stuck to a 2018 deadline than actually having accomplished it. Maybe without positive headlines suggesting progress ginned up by stunts like this, Alphabet plans to cut off their funding. This is not encouraging.

And then there is this summary:

2018 Was A Hard Reality Check For Autonomous Cars

The outlook for self-driving cars doesn’t look good.

[RTFirefly]

@Tired_and_Cranky

And then there is this summary:

2018 Was a Hard Reality Check For Autonomous Cars

The outlook for self-driving cars doesn’t look good.

From your link:

Even the head of Google’s self-driving car unit, former Hyundai exec John Krafcik, has publicly doubted self-driving cars will ever be able to perform in all conditions. He also believes we still have decades to go before the average person even has access to a self-driving car.